After the first three months of the season, UAE Team Emirates still dominate the UCI ranking with an incredible Tadej Pogacar, but the trend has changed in the relegation battle. While Astana is still in a deep results crisis, Arkéa is seeing the light by scoring points with its multiple fast men. This return to form for Arkéa places DSM and Cofidis in jeopardy, two teams that are struggling to accumulate points.
2023-2025 UCI Ranking
Since Strade Bianche three weeks ago, Arkéa has cut almost 500 UCI points from their deficit to DSM and Cofidis, the last two teams in the ranking’s ‘salvation’ zone. The Breton team is now about 1,500 points behind DSM and about 2,500 points behind Cofidis. Above those teams, the group of Intermarché, Movistar, Decathlon and Israel have a relatively solid lead at the moment, but if Arkéa continues to add UCI points regularly, some of them could get dangerously close to the relegation zone.
Although Démare is not competing brilliantly in the big classics, Arkéa is using the depth of its squad to score points with multiple riders in smaller races. Their high point was Luca Mozzato’s win at the Bredene Koksijde Classic (1.Pro), but for example last Sunday they placed Biermans and Venturini into the top5 at La Roue Tourangelle (1.1), scoring 120 points between them. Arkéa needs to take advantage of these periods with numerous one-day races, because in the summer with the Grand Tours they tend to struggle more than their rivals to score points.
On the other hand, as you can see in the graph above, Astana is getting further and further away from the top 18. Lutsenko has not reached his usual level, Cavendish has suffered a respiratory infection and the other riders are not at a good enough level. In addition, the team is not entering minor races, where fast riders like Bol, Kanter, Gazzoli or Syritsa could score UCI points. Their only victories in 2024 are two stages by Cavendish and Tejada at the Tour Colombia in early February. Scheduling for their punchy riders is also an issue, with Christian Scaroni not starting at the hilly Milano-Torino despite top 10 results in Cadel Evans Road Race, Trofeo Laigueglia and Figuiera Classic in 2024.
It seems that by the time Astana comes up with a strategy to score UCI points, it will be too late to continue in the WorldTour. If they maintain this trend, their fight next season will be against Uno-X, TotalEnergies, Tudor or Q36.5 for the 2026 WorldTour invitations, once relegated to the second division.
2024 Ranking
As you can see in the 2024-only ranking, DSM, Cofidis and Astana are the worst WorldTeams of the season. At the top, UAE is dominating, with Pogacar, Ayuso and McNulty among the top 10 riders of 2024, while Lidl-Trek has moved up to third place after Pedersen's victory in Gent-Wevelgem. Their use of Lidl's sponsorship money is confirming them as one of the top 5 teams in the world.
To avoid the current large differences between WorldTeams, the UCI has approved the "the principle of implementing a budget cap for teams", which would come into effect in 2026, with the new WorldTour licensing cycle. The business side of pro cycling is under constant debate, with the One Cycling project looking for new funding sources. Meanwhile, Richard Plugge, general manager of Visma | Lease a Bike and one of the driving forces behind One Cycling, does not continue to chair the official association of teams (AIGCP) and the new board, chaired by Brent Copeland (manager of Jayco), is full of team representatives opposed to the One Cycling project.
Coming back to the ranking analysis, after a great 2023, Cofidis is getting closer and closer to the relegation zone, as it has only scored more points than Astana in this 2024 among the WorldTeams. In fact, Cofidis is the only WorldTeam that has not yet won in 2024. In recent days, French journalist Charles Marsault has reported that Cofidis riders and staff are unhappy with the team's management and some riders are even looking to leave the team. Sponsor Cofidis has a commitment with the team until 2025.
The other WorldTeam at risk is DSM, currently 18th in the triennial ranking. The Dutch team has been rather anonymous in the early spring classics and, in addition, Bardet and Poole crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico. Fortunately for them, they scored 510 points in the Australian races in January which still gives them a margin of 1,500 UCI points over Arkéa in the triennium ranking. DSM will be hopeful that they can perform well in the Giro and Tour with their stars Jakobsen and Bardet, as well as Barguil in the Ardennes and the Tour. In any case, the overall level of the team is not encouraging.
In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 22 teams aiming for WorldTour licenses.
2025 Wildcards
As for the fight for the 2025 wildcards, Lotto Dstny and Israel - Premier Tech continue to widen their lead over their rivals and will most likely have the right to race the WorldTour calendar again in 2025. At the moment, Tudor is the third best ProTeam of the season and is in a position to receive the automatic wildcards to the 2025 WorldTour classics. However, the fight for third place will also include TotalEnergies, Uno-X and maybe also Q36.5.
Tudor, Uno-X, Q36.5 and TotalEnergies will probably have more opportunities to fight for WorldTour wildcards from 2026 onwards, when Lotto Dstny and Israel are promoted back to the WorldTour and the rivals change in the wildcard ranking.
The other focus of interest in the ProTeams ranking is the requirement to finish the season in the top 40 of the overall ranking in order to be eligible for the 2025 Grand Tours. Currently, Corratec and Euskaltel-Euskadi are just outside the top 40 and would not be eligible for Giro and Vuelta wildcards. Also Tour de Tietema would lose the possibility to apply for wildcards for the 2025 Grand Tours.
Great article. Lets me just point out that it is “Figueira” not “Figuiera”
Time to restart my monthly lr.com check. Off season is over. Honesly it’s more like biweekly. Good luck in the 2024 bike world raul, karlis and louemans.