Despite a dropped chain on the final climb, Primož Roglič won both the stage 20 time trial on Monte Lussari and the Giro d’Italia 2023 in dramatic fashion. The Slovenian lost around 15 seconds due to the incident but Geraint Thomas did not have enough watts and cracked in the final part of the climb that seemed to never end for the Welshman.

Monte Lussari probably is the hardest climb in cycling as it is very steep with a poor road surface, making even Roglič and Thomas look slow whilst pushing over 6 w/kg. That being said, it is hard for anyone to ride on 19-21% gradients and look like they are flying to the naked eye. The false flat 10.8 kilometres at the start were done with a time-trial bike while before the climb the riders changed to a road bike – Geraint Thomas even changed his helmet (very slowly), saving weight and making his head cooler for the climb.

It was a near-perfect 15 degree temperature on the climb for climbing. On such a steep climb even lower temperatures might have been better as riders are going so slow that there is very little cooling from air resistance like on a 7-8% gradient. On the climb, Thomas lost 37 seconds to Roglič, doing 6.26ᵉW/Kg for 29:27 min. The chain drop cost the Slovenian around 15 seconds or 0.05 ᵉW/Kg (including the time when the bike stopped and the lost time due to inertia). Without it he would have beaten Thomas by 52 seconds in the time trial or 0.20 ᵉW/Kg on the climb.

Roglič’ 6.46 ᵉW/Kg* for 28:35 min (excluding time lost to the mechanical) is not that impressive by 2023 standards but it was enough to win against Thomas for whom this was the worst possible climb as a bigger GC rider. It is not a surprise that the very difficult third week prior to this time trial took its toll on the riders compared to ‘fresh’ performances earlier in the year.

There were no big surprises in this time trial. Sepp Kuss had the second-best climbing time while the 21-year-old American Matthew Riccitello, who already pushed good watts in the Tour of the Alps, was eighth fastest on the climb which suited a sub-60-kg rider very well.

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There have not been many mountain time trials at the WorldTour level since 2014. Ollon Villars featured twice in Romandie (2018 and 2022), Monte Grappa (2014), Alpe di Siusi (2016) and Monte Lussari (2023) in the Giro d'Italia, Krabellin (2016) in the Basque Country and La Planche des Belles Filles (2020) in the Tour. It is hard to compare them to each other as some of them had more kilometres before the climb like in the 2020 Tour or the Krabellin ITT started with a climb and concluded with 10 kilometres of descending and false flat. The only true mountain time trial with just a climb in it was in the 2018 Ollon Villars ITT.

Even in the Foliforov time trial, the first kilometres were false flat and the climb was at a middle altitude which is why we calculated his performance at 6.48 ᵉW/Kg for 25:40min but equivalent to 6,85 ᵉW/Kg at sea level. Would the 2016 Foliforov win the 2023 Monte Lussari time-trial? Probably not because of his equipment and position on the false flat kilometres at the start of today's stage but he would have been very close to Roglič.

Roglič in 2018 did the Ollon Villars ITT at 6.76 ᵉW/Kg for 25:14 min, losing only 4 seconds to Egan Bernal. On paper a superior performance to today, but it was the third stage of Romandie before the mountain days and it was a pure mountain TT, while Monte Lusari was after three weeks with multiple 4500-5200 kilojoules days in high mountains in the last few days.

Would the 2023 Giro Roglič lose to Pogačar in the 2020 Tour ITT? Yes, in terms of the stage, but it would have been very close between keeping or losing the yellow jersey. Nonetheless, Roglič has won the Giro and now only the Tour de France is left. The Slovenian has won 6 out of the 7 big one-week races (1x Paris-Nice, 2x Tirreno-Adriatico, 1x Volta a Catalunya, 2x Basque Country, 2x Tour de Romandie, 1x Criterium du Dauphine) and only the Tour de Suisse is left from those.

It will be hard for Roglič to win the Tour but 2023 still might be his best shot as Remco Evenepoel is most likely not doing it this year and Pogačar's form is questionable after his injury from his crash in Liege. Juan Ayuso and other U23 super talents are still developing and both Pogačar and Vingegaard still will be very likely in their prime for some time from 2024 onwards. No one will expect Roglič to win the Tour after the Giro as no one has done it since Marco Pantani in 1998, but without the pressure perhaps it is the best time to try.

The Queen stage of the Giro d’Italia 2023 featured a very difficult parcours, but the GC teams all picked a conservative strategy to wait for the final climb, with no one daring to try a mountain raid or pacing hard on the early high mountain passes. Fortunately for the interest in tomorrow’s time trial, Geraint Thomas, Primož Roglič and Joao Almeida remain within a minute of each other with GC still to play for.

The GC teams rode the start of the queen stage of the 2023 Giro defensively, with no satellite riders making the breakaway and the closest GC threat being Buitrago, over 10 minutes down. The pace on the early climbs was not fast and even on Passo Giau (9.8 km, 9.3%) the peloton was huge. 5.40 ᵉW/Kg for 36:04 min on Giau was 3:19 min slower than Egan Bernal’s time in the 2021 Giro which was in much more unpleasant conditions. At the crest, the group was around 35-40 riders deep as INEOS pace with Swift and Puccio was slow but Jumbo-Visma and UAE-Emirates were not willing to contribute and make the race harder.

On Passo Tre Croci (8.0 km, 7.2%) the group was reduced by a much harder pace from Laurens De Plus but after the climb, there were still 17 riders left. 22:42 min at 5.70 ᵉW/Kg definitely did some damage as the stage was heading into the sixth hour and the it seemed that De Plus paced harder at the end of the climb. Thymen Arensman before the Tre Cime di Lavaredo climb spent 5122 kilojoules for 5:32h which is 13.61 kj/kg/h. A very hard stage as the mountain passes were above 2000 metres sea level but it could have been harder if one of the big teams fully committed.

Like last year on the Passo Fedaia stage, the riders saved their bullets for the final steep ramp. Tre Cime di Lavaredo (3.7 km, 12.11%) included extended sections with a 16%+ gradient.

Primož Roglič before the climb even changed to a bike that had a 40-tooth single chainring with a 12-speed 10-44T cassette. It allowed Roglič to spin at his optimum cadence on the steep pinches, despite pushing over 6 w/kg. Probably it was a test before the stage 20 time trial which includes the steepest climb that has been used in any recent Grand Tours with a 21.6% steep 500-metre section.

Despite the steep gradients, there was not much action on Tre Cime as Roglič and Thomas stayed together practically until the finish. Both tried to attack but their ᵉW/Kg was too close to make a gap even a 10%+ steep climb. Roglič in the end sprinted to a 3-second gap over Thomas while Joao Almeida trying to hold a steady tempo as always lost 23 seconds to the Slovenian.

As the climb went up to 2316 metres, the watts were not particularly high as at altitude it is way harder to push the same watts as on climbs that start at sea level or close to it. Primož Roglič did Tre Cime in 14:20 min with 6.43 ᵉW/Kg. It was a new record as Vincenzo Nibali in 2013 (15:02 min) and Danilo Di Luca in 2007 (15:01 min) were way slower but in the 2023 Giro the tempo on previous climbs was not high and everything was saved for this final effort. At sea level we estimate that Primož Roglič would have been able to push 7.01 ᵉW/Kg doing the same effort on such gradients. This huge difference sea level effort and Tre Cime (average altitude 2077m) of 0.58 ᵉW/Kg really shows how much altitude can influence wattage output.

The stage was won by Santiago Buitrago from the breakaway. The lightweight Colombian beat the 75 kg Derek Gee by 51 seconds on the rampas inhumanas which was made for Buitrago and seemed almost unfair for Gee. Thomas is ahead of Roglič by 26 seconds and Almeida by 59 seconds and everything can happen in the final time trial.

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This 18.6 kilometre long mountain time trial will decide the Giro. Based on the climbing performances this week, Roglič and Thomas are very close but anything can happen as the Tour de France 2020 Stage 20 proved. Even Almeida still has left a small chance to win like this teammate Pogačar did three years ago. Currently, the betting odds for the title are @ 1.40 for Thomas, @ 3.00 for Roglič and @ 23.00 for Almeida.

There is a 10.8-kilometre false flat section before Monte Lussari but most of the time will be spent on the climb. The Monte Lussari road surface is not of the best quality. It is a pure w/kg battle and the riders will change for a road bike at the beginning as aerodynamics are not as important as the weight on 15%+ gradients.

Geraint Thomas is defending the Maglia Rosa well, being the only rider that has not lost time on a mountain stage to his rivals Joao Almeida and Primož Roglič. Thomas finished together with Roglič, while Almeida was dropped by Sepp Kuss’s acceleration on the steep Coi climb, losing 21 seconds to his main rivals.

It was another hard mountain day in the Giro with huge kilojoules before the decisive climb. The GC teams probably were saving some bullets for the next two stages which includes a very hard road stage and a mountain time trial with inhumane gradients. Brandon McNulty in the peloton spent 4121 kilojoules for 4:18h which is 14.19 kj/kg/h, a very hard day in the saddle before the steep Coi climb (5.3 km, 9.8%). Before it came the Forcella Cibana (9.7 km, 7.7%), where the peloton did 5.70 ᵉW/Kg for 28:53 min – definitely enough to hurt the legs with only a short descent before the very steep Coi.

There were doubts about Primož Roglič as he lost time on Monte Bondone to Joao Almeida and Geraint Thomas on Tuesday and was seen multiple times at the back of the group when the attacks flowed during breakaway formation earlier in the stage. INEOS or UAE did not try to pace hard to test Roglič late in the stage, which ended up being the right decision as the Slovenian was reborn from the ashes. On the steep Coi section, pure climber Sepp Kuss put up a strong performance with only Roglič and Thomas able to follow his acceleration. Joao Almeida as usual set his own tempo with the help of his teammate Jay Vine. Almeida was not far back but it was important to catch the leaders as there was a descent and small climb after Coi with more moderate gradients to the finish.

Sepp Kuss did 6.70 ᵉW/Kg for 11 minutes on the steep section and 6.38 ᵉW/Kg for 18:31 min on the whole climb, as the first part was still relatively slow with INEOS just controlling the gap to the breakaway. Regardless, the late action was enough to make big splits in the GC group that was tired after 4000 metres of elevation gain. Almeida, thanks to the pacing of Vine, lost only 6 seconds on the Coi climb itself but then nearly crashed on the descent as the Australian went too fast in a corner.

On the final part of the stage, Roglič was left alone with Thomas with the Slovenian doing most of the work. But it was worth it, as Almeida was without Vine and in the end lost 21 seconds despite being almost back to the leading duo by the end of the short descent off Coi. There were no bonus seconds on the line as the breakaway won with the Italian champion Filippo Zana winning a sprint against Thibaut Pinot, after the Frenchman did a good lead-out for the Jayco-AlUla climber.

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The next stage will be a cruel one, with multiple mountain passes before Passo Giau where Egan Bernal danced away from his rivals on a rainy shortened stage in the 2021 Giro. Passo Tre Croci and Tre Cime di Laverado finish off the stage, with very steep ramps sure to create some gaps. Roglič, Thomas and Almeida are close in the GC but every second will matter in the final mountain time trial. Thomas definitely is happy with this situation but INEOS, Jumbo and UAE all should try to gain time if there is an opportunity and if their team leader feels good. No one can predict what could happen on the stage 20 time trial as the 2020 Tour showed - bad legs on extended 15-20% gradients can cost minutes.

After a big drama, the Queen stage of Giro d’Italia was shortened from 199 km to 75.0 km with the exclusion of Grand St Bernard Pass prior to the Croix de Couer, making a fairly easy day for the GC riders.

The stage started right at the bottom of the mighty Croix de Couer climb (15.5 km, 8.6%). Riders knew the first hour of the race would be very hard and did warm up on turbo trainers before the stage finally started. It was not raining at the start and the weather conditions definitely were not extreme when the race began.

As the race was shortened and it started up a long climb, the breakaway formation would be decided how much w/kg a rider can push for 50 minutes. It was not an easy task as Jack Haig dropped early from the peloton and Jay Vine exploded after trying to get into the breakaway. In the end, it was formed by seven strong riders. Thibaut Pinot, Einer Augusto Rubio, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Matthew Riccitello, Derek Gee and Bruno Armirail. They did the climb in 48 minutes and 2 seconds with 5.90 ᵉW/Kg. A very impressive effort by Armirail and Gee who are both way heavier than the other pure climbers, weighing above 70 kilograms.

The peloton/GC group was not far away and lost only 1:55 min on the climb and pushed 5.62 ᵉW/Kg. After that, there was a treacherous descent, the first part being wet with a bad road surface. The breakaway gained a lot of time on the technical and long descent as it was worth to risk for the stage victory while the GC group did not need to go full gas down Croix de Couer.

At the base of Crans-Montana the breakaway’s lead was over 2:30 min and it was unlikely for the GC group to catch Pinot & Co as the stage was short with low kilojoules and the riders were relatively fresh. It was neutral wind on the climb which was good for attacking riders. The stage was won by Einer Rubio who did not respond to Pinot and Cepeda’s accelerations and rode the climb more conservatively. This strategy paid off as in the last metres, as not even Pinot could follow the lightweight Colombian who took his second World Tour win in 2023 after being victorious in the UAE Tour on Jebel Jais, where he attacked from the peloton and was ignored by the big GC teams. Rubio did the climb at 35:28 min which was not much slower than the peloton.

Considering the lack of fatigue before Crans-Montana, the tempo in the GC group was extremely low for 2023 standards. INEOS had no reason to blow up the climb with Primož Roglič being the likeliest to win the w/kg test and Jumbo-Visma elected to save their bullets for another day. The pace was so slow that Lorenzo Fortunato, Hugh Carthy and Eddie Dunbar all attacked at some point of the climb and gained a good margin. Only Carthy was not caught by the GC group and gained massive six seconds over Almeida, Thomas, Roglič, Caruso, Kamna, Dunbar and Kuss.

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Carthy did 6.11 ᵉW/Kg for 34:14 min and spent way more watts than the GC riders in the draft who pushed 5.95 ᵉW/Kg for 34:20 min. The drafting effect on a 7% gradient is still significant as the riders go uphill at 22.8 km/h and it is hard to make big gaps if the fatigue is low and there is not a strong team like Jumbo-Visma fully committing with a Kuss, Gloag, Bouwman, Dennis mountain train for Roglič. The GC action in the Giro d’Italia has largely been non-existent outside of the two time trials, and today was certainly one of the most disappointing mountain stages in recent history.

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It was not the most exciting day in the Giro d’Italia first week. Surprisingly, the peloton decided to take a day off and allow one of the three breakaway riders, Davide Bais, Karel Vacek and Simone Petilli, to take a stage win on the mighty Campo Imperatore.

It was a challenging 218.3-kilometre stage with more than 4,000 metres of elevation gain. It was not perfect for high w/kg performances but the final 3.9 kilometres at an 8.26% gradient with a finish above 2000 metres of sea level was sufficient to create some differences in the GC if a team had tried, despite the headwind.

Jumbo-Visma and DSM seemed interested in controlling the break formation. In the end, it was a classical four-man television breakaway with Davide Bais, Karel Vacek, Simone Petilli and Henok Mulubrhan, with the Eritrean dropping out of the group early. After every team refused to hold even a mediocre tempo in the peloton, it was clear one of these three breakaway riders would take the first pro win of their career with DSM having no interest in bringing the group back lest Leknessund lose his jersey. After a gruelling day out front, it was Davide Bais from EOLO-Kometa who was victorious, thanks to a 4.82 ᵉW/Kg for 14:25 min performance on the steep part of the Campo Imperatore. It is the second victory at the Giro for Alberto Contador and Ivan Basso’s team after Lorenzo Fortunato’s glorious breakaway win on Monte Zoncolan at the 2021 Giro. It might be the lowest w/kg performance for a mountain-top win in recent years in World-Tour but it is still a Grand Tour win that many teams passed on, so credit to those in the breakaway today.

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The peloton was sleeping for the whole climb but upped the tempo on the steep pinch at the finish. Remco Evenepoel was first from the GC group, doing 5.85 ᵉW/Kg for 11:44 min and getting extra UCI points for Soudal-Quickstep. It was surprising to see that INEOS or Jumbo-Visma did not try to test Evenepoel on Campo Imperatore after the Belgian crashed multiple times on Stage 5 which might have affected his performance.

La Vuelta Femenina did not disappoint this weekend, with crosswind controversy on Stage 6 leading to Annemiek van Vleuten taking a healthy lead over Demi Vollering in the General Classification. Today’s final stage presented Demi Vollering with an opportunity to recover that lost time on the steep slopes of Covadonga, but despite a great performance, Van Vleuten was good enough to defend her GC lead and win La Vuelta Femenina by nine seconds.

Vollering lost the leader’s jersey on Stage 6 due to taking a natural break at the worst time, leading to a 64 second loss to Annemiek van Vleuten. It was Movistar’s home ground and they had a pre-race plan which they executed perfectly.

Stage 7 finished on the mighty Covadonga climb (8.45km, 9.29% steep part). Vollering had to gain a lot of time and it was the perfect climb for it. Liane Lippert was pulling very hard from the base for Van Vleuten even though her teammate was the race leader and did not need to gain time. After Niamh Fisher-Black finished her pull Vollering started digging hard with 10.1 km to go and only Van Vleuten, Gaia Realini and Evita Muzic remained in the leading pack.

Van Vleuten was dropped with 5.4 km to go after an acceleration on the steep ramps by Gaia Realini. Vollering remained together with Realini who is performing exceptionally well in her first year with Trek-Segafredo. The Italian climber is only 21 years old and might be the best climber in the following seasons.

After the climb levelled off with a few kilometres remaining, the gap to Van Vleuten kept increasing at a rapid rate. Realini stayed on Vollering’s after the short descent and lost 11 seconds in the final kilometre, with Vollering powering to the line to take the stage win.

The young Dutch star performed extremely well today, doing 5.35 ᵉw/kg for 31:01 min. This is only for the steep part but if the whole climb would be included with the descent then Vollering’s estimated power would be around 5.30 ᵉw/kg for 39 minutes but it is hard to calculate it accurately with the ups and downs in the final. On the power x time curve this effort is with the best in our database, while Van Vleuten is not at her 2022 Tour de France Femmes level yet.

Van Vleuten in the end lost 56 seconds but won the overall classification by nine seconds. Realini despite losing time in the early stages finished on the podium thanks to her exceptional climbing skills. Realini is around 40 kg heavy according to the Trek-Segafredo website and her etalon power of 40 kg on Covadonga today would be 5.65 ᵉw/kg for 39 minutes (full Covadonga). Her 60 kg normalized etalon power is by 0.36 ᵉw/kg lower and it is a huge disadvantage for her to ride with a UCI weight limit 6.8 kg bike compared to heavier riders.

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On the first mountain top finish in La Vuelta Femenina 2023, Demi Vollering, the Queen of Ardennes was unbeaten. Even Annemiek van Vleuten could not outmatch the SD Worx superstar on the Mirador de Peñas Llanas climb despite Vollering being isolated for much of the finale.

Stage 5 ended with Mirador de Peñas Llanas. The stage itself was not the easiest one. The peloton did the Puerto Navafria (11.45 km, 5.8%) climb in the first half of the stage in 32 minutes and 31 seconds. According to Juliette Labous’ Strava profile, she pushed 265 watts (4.61 w/kg with 57.5 kg input weight). With 3:20 hours in the legs before the start of the climb, the fatigue definitely influenced the final.

Surprisingly, Trek-Segafredo were pacing the climb with Gaia Realini. The Italian has performed exceptionally well this season, shredding the GC group on Jebel Hafeet and finishing 3rd in La Fleche Wallonne. Realini was holding a high pace as in the group was her teammate Amanda Spratt however in reality Realini has already demonstrated she is the strongest climber on Trek-Segafredo. When Demi Vollering started pushing at the front of the group Spratt dropped while Realini was keeping up with the best climbers even after setting the pace.

Like on the Mur de Huy, Vollering was holding her own pace despite Annemiek van Vleuten sitting on her wheel. Vollering won all three Ardennes classics and has been on fire this season. With 450 metres to go Van Vleuten tried to drop Vollering on a very steep section, grinding hard out of the saddle, while Vollering remained seated. With 300 metres to go, Vollering started the final acceleration and dropped both Van Vleuten and Bauernfeind off her wheel.

Vollering did on the climb 5.48 ᵉw/kg for 13:25 min which is the most impressive climbing performance over 10 minutes in 2023. But that might change on Stage 7 which will finish up the mighty Lagos de Covadonga (13.3 km, 6.8%). Covadonga might suit more Van Vleuten as it is a long climb but Vollering is very strong this season. Realini also might perform better as she will surely not be pacing for Spratt who finished 15th while Realini was 5th, losing 27 seconds to Vollering.

Both Ricarda Bauernfeind and Evita Muzic are only 23 years old and did very well today, finishing in the top 5 close to Vollering. Marianne Vos lost more than 2 minutes on the climb which meant that Vollering became the new race leader with Van Vleuten being only 5 seconds behind in overall.

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