La Vuelta and the races of the last few weeks have further defined the relegation battle. While in the previous licensing cycle there were 8 very evenly matched teams until the last months of 2022, in this cycle the fight is practically down to 4 WorldTeams (DSM, Cofidis, Arkéa and Astana) plus Uno-X, which is aiming for promotion to the WorldTour.
2023-2025 UCI Ranking
As you can see in the ranking, the group of Jayco Alula, Movistar and Israel have moved some 5000 points away from Arkéa after a successful Vuelta a España. That’s a pretty reassuring lead with a month and a season to go before the end of the triennium. For Movistar it was especially important to get this margin, as next year they will lose Aranburu (to Cofidis) and Lazkano (to Red Bull Bora), two of the team’s top scorers.
In addition, Jayco and Intermarché made great use of the GP de Québec with Matthews (winner) and Girmay (2nd). Girmay’s season (with 3067 UCI points) is proving to be key to Intermarché’s tranquility. It is the WorldTeam that has depended most on its leader in this 2024 season, with Girmay accounting for 35,5% of Intermarché’s total UCI points.
In 17th position, DSM has also taken a breath of fresh air in La Vuelta thanks to the great performances of youngsters Bittner and Poole. Although Bardet will retire in June of next season, 2025 does not look bad for DSM if young riders like Poole, Onley, Bitner, Vermaerke, Andresen or Van den Broek continue to develop.
Cofidis is the team most at risk of falling into the relegation zone, although they have had some relief thanks to Ion Izagirre's 5th place in GP de Montréal. As we can see in the graph, they are living off the advantage gained in 2023 and are in a negative trend in 2024. “The points have gone from concern to obsession. Cycling is starting to look like football: in every match, you need a win or a draw to score points and not die”, explains Gorka Gerrikagoitia, sports director of Cofidis, to Relevo. Next season, Cofidis will add two good scorers like Aranburu and Teuns, but they will miss Zingle and Guillaume Martin.
In the relegation zone are Arkéa and Astana. Thanks to the money from new Chinese sponsor XDS, Astana signed Bettiol mid-season and announced Ulissi, Higuita, Poels and Gate. With Aaron Gate, Astana is looking to make the most of the Asian continental calendar, where they can score points against weaker teams. The New Zealander has scored more points this season at Burgos BH than any Astana rider.
Although it is almost impossible for Astana to avoid relegation next season, it is crucial for them to finish ahead of the other relegated team and the ProTeams Uno-X (if not promoted to the WorldTour) or Tudor in the 2025 annual ranking, in order to get the 2026 WorldTour wildcards. The progress of Uno-X and the signings of Hirschi and Alaphilippe by Tudor will make it more difficult for relegated teams to get wildcards for the WorldTour calendar in 2026.
2024 Ranking
In the annual ranking, UAE still has an overwhelming lead over the rest of the teams, doubling in points all but Visma | Lease a Bike. Below, Astana, Cofidis and Arkéa are the worst WorldTeams of the season, but it is surprising the 15th position of Bahrain Victorious, which has finished among the top 8 teams the last 3 seasons. Moreover, Bahrain has been the worst team in La Vuelta and is the only WorldTeam that has not won a stage in Giro, Tour or Vuelta this season.
In the Vuelta, Ineos also stood out negatively, without a single place in the top 3 in stages. On the other hand, Team Kern Pharma, with its 3 stage wins, was the 7th best team in La Vuelta and the best invited team in any of the three Grand Tours this season. In the following graph, you can see the points in the 2024 Grand Tours of all the participating teams.
In this graph, we can see that Arkéa is the WorldTeam that has scored the least points in the Grand Tours, losing many points to its rivals in the relegation battle. Teams like DSM, Jayco or Movistar prepare the Grand Tours with more care, although they sacrifice minor races where Arkéa gets more UCI points.
In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 22 teams aiming for WorldTour licenses.
2025 Wildcards
Regarding the ProTeams ranking, Lotto and Israel remain safe in the top two places, with a 2000 UCI points lead over Uno-X, despite the Norwegian team's push in the second half of the season. Tudor, meanwhile, will not have guaranteed wildcards in any WorldTour races next season.
As we mentioned, this ranking will change next season, as Lotto and Israel will most likely become WorldTeams in 2026. Therefore, the teams that will contest the 2026 wildcards will be the ProTeams that remain in the second division and those relegated from the WorldTour at the end of 2025. Possibly, Uno-X (if not promoted to the WorldTour) and Tudor will have a better chance of getting WorldTour wildcards in the next licensing cycle, as Israel and Lotto have been too tough rivals in recent seasons.
On another note, Corratec Vini Fantini remains outside the top 40 of the team ranking, which would prevent them from applying for a wildcard for next season's Giro d'Italia. In any case, the Italian team has little chance of getting a Giro wildcard even if it is eligible.
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