The season has started with Astana flying. The worst WorldTeam of the last three seasons is only surpassed by UAE in terms of UCI points scored in the young 2025 season. Although their chances of staying in the WorldTour remain low, Astana is holding out hope thanks to a marked improvement in performance and planning.
2023-2025 UCI Ranking
At the end of 2025, the top18 teams in the ranking of the current triennium will obtain the WorldTour licenses for the next triennium (2026-2028). As you can see in the graph, right now there is a large gap between Picnic and Cofidis, the last ones in the top18, compared to Arkéa, Uno-X and Astana, which aim to enter the top18.
The gap of around 3,000 points is practically impossible to bridge for Arkéa, which is on a negative trend, and Uno-X, which has not improved its roster. That is why Astana, on an upward trend, is now the team that threatens Cofidis, the most vulnerable of the current top18. In the first month of the season the Kazakh team has made up 1,335 points from their original 4,720-point deficit. At this rate, Astana would overtake Cofidis before the end of the season.
In the last two seasons, Astana was more focused on stage races, scoring half of its points (49.4%) there. However, its rivals (with the exception of Picnic) have mainly scored in one-day races: Cofidis scored 57.4% of its points in one-day races between 2023 and 2024, Uno-X 62.5%, Arkéa 65.8% and Intermarché 66.4%.
The scoring system favors one-day races over stage races, with the exception of Grand Tours, where stages score generously. One-day races distribute the same points as the general classifications of the same category. Even some stage races such as the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes or the 4 Jours de Dunkerque have changed their first stage to a one-day race, almost doubling the UCI points to be distributed with the same days of competition.
Astana has therefore decided to add 35 one-day races to its continental calendar (ProSeries and .1), while maintaining the number of stage races. For example, it will go from racing only 6 classics in Belgium and 2 in France in 2024 to racing 21 classics in Belgium and 13 in France this season. It has also maintained its presence in the Italian classics and expanded it in the one-day races in Spain (from 6 to 14), where its puncheur cyclists have already shined this early season.
To cover such an extensive continental calendar, Astana is making more use of its development team riders. Also, this week they have sent Henok Mulubrhan to the Tour du Rwanda (2.1) with the Eritrean national team, as his points count scored there count for Astana.
So far in the 2025 season, Astana has scored 80.7% of its UCI points in one-day races. However, their performance in the Belgian and French races on the minor calendar, suitable for heavy riders, remains to be seen. Astana has signed Teunissen and Gate and has sprinters like Kanter, Bol, Mallucelli, Ballerini or Gazzoli. However, it does not look like they will be a dominant team in those kind of races, against much more experienced teams in such terrain like Lotto, Intermarché and UNO-X.
Their main rival, Cofidis, is finding hope in 23-year-old Milan Fretin, who has won in high-level sprints at the Clásica de Almería and the Volta ao Algarve. Last year he already impressed with 872 UCI points and is the perfect type of rider to farm points in smaller races.
If Cofidis repeats its poor numbers of 2024 (below 8,000 UCI points), Astana would overtake them if they score 13,000 points, something achieved by 10 teams in 2023 and 8 teams in 2024. Therefore, Cofidis must improve and surpass 10,000 points to force Astana to go above 15,000, a more complicated barrier to reach.
2025 Ranking
In the ranking so far this season, only UAE Team Emirates beats Astana. On the negative side, Arkéa is one of the worst WorldTeams and its chances of staying in the WorldTour are increasingly remote. The team is at risk of disappearing, as the contracts of sponsors Arkéa and B&B expire in 2025, and it will be more difficult to find new sponsors in view of the team's likely relegation.
In the following chart, you can see the 15 cyclists with the most points so far this season. Among them, there are 4 UAE riders (Narváez, Morgado, Pogacar and Almeida) and 2 Astana riders (Scaroni and Gate).
Christian Scaroni has already scored more points this season than in the entire 2024 season, after his victories at the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes and the Classic Var. Also of note is Oscar Onley, who is keeping Picnic further away from the relegation zone with his top5 at the Tour Down Under and UAE Tour. A negative note for Picnic was the crash and abandonment of Romain Bardet in the Algarve, who looked set for a top GC result.
In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 23 big teams currently.
2026 Wildcards
This season will also have a close fight for the automatic wildcards to the 2026 WorldTour. For this ranking, the teams that will be ProTeams in 2026 are considered. In other words, the relegated teams (currently Arkéa and Astana) compete against the ProTeams, mainly Uno-X, Tudor and Q36.5.
At the moment, Astana is very much in the lead, so in case of relegation it would still have the right to compete in the WorldTour calendar next season. However, the second wildcard would be hotly contested between Tudor, Q36.5, Uno-X and Arkéa. Burgos is also keeping pace at the moment, but will drop during the season as the Northern Europe classics commence.
Among the ProTeams, Uno-X has the deepest team, but Tudor has bought more potential to score thanks to Hirschi (3,500+ points last year) and Alaphilippe´s signings. The Q36.5 options are lower, with a much shallower roster than Uno-X and Tudor. Even an exceptional season from Pidcock might not be enough for Q36.5 if the rest of the team does not improve.
Given the increased level and investment of the best ProTeams, the UCI is considering allowing one more team in the Giro, Tour and Vuelta, going from 22 to 23 teams. No Grand Tour have yet announced their wildcards for this season, pending this decision.
On another note, from this season, ProTeams will have to finish in the top30 of the annual ranking to be eligible for the following season's Grand Tours. At least 5 of the 17 ProTeams will fall out of the top30. The Spanish and Italian ProTeams are the most pressured to finish the season in the top30 to keep their chances of being invited to Giro and Vuelta. It will also be a challenge for the Unibet Tietema Rockets, which aspire to the 2026 Tour de France wildcard.
Very good insight, yet again