Life goes on as usual in 2024, with Visma sweeping the opening weekend and UAE dominating other races in Italy and leading the UCI ranking. However, in this article we will focus more on the relegation battle, which will become increasingly important as the 2023-2025 triennium progresses. In that fight, Astana and Arkéa remain in the relegation zone, while Decathlon Ag2r (18th in 2023) has ascended three spots after a great start to the season.
Editor’s Note: We will endeavour to provide monthly update articles on the points table throughout this year.
2023-2025 UCI Ranking
As you can see in the chart above, Israel – Premier Tech and especially Lotto Dstny are on their way back to the WorldTour with no signs of slowing down, so it is very likely that two current WorldTeams will be relegated. At the end of the 2025 season, only the top 18 teams in the cumulative ranking from 2023 to 2025 will receive WorldTour licences for the next licence cycle from 2026 to 2028. At the moment, Astana and Arkéa are more than 2,000 UCI points behind DSM (the 18th team) and more than 3,000 UCI points behind the other teams.
Although there are still almost two seasons left until the end of the triennium, the top10 teams in the ranking should not be concerned with the prospects of relegation. Below them, EF, Movistar, Jayco and Intermarché are in a relatively comfortable situation, but they should monitor their UCI points because an unfortunate string of injuries or sickness can quickly change the situation. Israel, Cofidis, Decathlon and DSM seem to be the most vulnerable teams in the ranking in case Astana or Arkéa come back from behind. Regardless, at the start of this season, Astana and Arkéa’s situation has only worsened compared to 2023. Although both teams have made signings to improve their capacity to score points, they are still two of the worst WorldTeams in 2024.
Arkéa signed Démare in August last year, as well as cyclists suitable to score in minor races, such as Albanese, Venturini and Raúl García Pierna. Last year, they suffered heavy injuries to Vauquelin, Capiot or Bouhanni (finally retired), but if they have better luck this year they can start their comeback. Astana look worse in the long term, as they have focused on building a sprint train for Cavendish which is not the ideal strategy for scoring UCI points. They have also signed more complete riders like Schelling, Charmig, Mulubrhan or Fortunato, but the team’s calendar is too focused on stage races, where it is more difficult to score UCI points than in one-day races. The Italian trio of Scaroni, Velasco and Gazzoli will be key for them in hilly one-day races.
2024 Ranking
As you can see in the ranking of only 2024, “at risk” teams like Israel and especially Decathlon are in the top half of the ranking. In the case of Decathlon, not only has its star rider O’Connor shone, winning the Vuelta a Murcia and a stage in the UAE Tour, but riders such as Cosnefroy, Naesen, Vendrame, Gautherat, Tronchon, Baudin or the Paret-Peintre brothers have accumulated places of honour in numerous races. The French team’s improvement in level is generalised among all its riders.
As for Israel, the team made the most of the trip to Australia, winning the Tour Down Under with a surprising Stephen Williams. In fact, 1,238 of Israel’s 1,632 UCI points this season come from the Oceania races. While the trip to Australia may be uncomfortable for some teams, the Tour Down Under is in the top tier of the WorldTour, behind only the Grand Tours and the Monuments in terms of UCI points distribution. Looking at the individual rankings so far this season, Stephen Williams and Jhonatan Narvaez, the top two from the Tour Down Under, are the riders with the most UCI points in 2024 (in part due to Narvaez’ Pan American Games Road Race win last October being counted here).
DSM also made good use of the start of the season in Australia, with a stage win for Oscar Onley, who finished fourth in the GC. In the past transfer window, DSM has strengthened with Jakobsen and Barguil, but lost Welsford, Leknessund, Dainese, Mayrhofer and Milesi. Overall, the team needs the leaders to perform at their level, but also the promising Onley, Poole, Van Uden or Bittner to continue to grow. In 18th position in the triennium ranking, DSM is currently the most vulnerable team if Arkéa or Astana change their negative trend.
The other most vulnerable team is Cofidis, currently 17th in the triennial ranking. Without big names, last year they completed a great Tour de France, with victories by Lafay and Ion Izagirre, and then won a stage in La Vuelta with Jesús Herrada. However, Lafay has left for Decathlon and the team’s leaders, such as Coquard, Guillaume Martin, Jesús Herrada and Ion Izagirre are all on the wrong side of 30. Cofidis is the second “oldest” team in the WorldTour, behind only Lidl-Trek. The French team needs to continue to optimise its resources as much as possible, and to close the renewal of Axel Zingle, its most promising rider, who finishes his contract in 2024.
In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 22 teams aiming for WorldTour licenses.
2025 Wildcards
The other ranking to follow this season will be that of the ProTeams Wildcard Ranking, which gives access to wildcards for the 2025 WorldTour races. The top two ProTeams will have guaranteed wildcards for the entire WorldTour, including the Grand Tours, and the third will have guaranteed invitations to the WorldTour one-day races. Finishing in the top two teams is a privilege, as you have the right to participate in the entire WorldTour, being able to refuse races you are not interested in, as Lotto Dstny has done with the Giro.
Lotto Dstny and Israel – Premier Tech have started the season well ahead of their rivals. Currently, Tudor is in third position and would get the wildcards to the 2025 classics, which would be a further step in its growth. Cancellara’s team has signed Trentin, Dainese, Mayrhofer or Storer, but it is difficult for them to challenge Lotto and Israel, two structures at the level of the WorldTeams. At least, Tudor has received the wildcard for the next Giro by discretion of the organiser, RCS.
The other clear contender for the wildcards is Uno-X, which has been reinforced with Cort and Leknessund. The Norwegian team will repeat in the Tour de France and will participate in the five Monuments thanks to being the third ProTeam in 2023. Despite their progress, they are still one step behind the WorldTeams and already start with a 1,000 points disadvantage compared to Lotto and Israel. In addition, their star rider Tobias Johannessen will be out for several weeks due to a broken collarbone in the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes, which will further complicate their goal of wildcards or even promotion to the WorldTour in 2026.
The rest of the ProTeams will also be counting their UCI points, as they must finish in the top 40 of the UCI ranking at the end of the season to be eligible for the 2025 Grand Tours. Currently, Corratec, a teams that is candidates for Giro wildcards each season, is outside the top 40 and would not be eligible. With this rule in mind, teams like Burgos-BH have signed riders from exotic countries such as Jambaljamts Sainbayar (Mongolian champion), Georgios Bouglas (Greek champion), Aaron Gate (New Zealand champion) or the Guatemalan Sergio Chumil, who secure valuable UCI points in national and continental championships.
Deberían crear unos incentivos similares para los equipos Continentales y de esa forma presionar a esos PRT que andan dormidos, relajados por estar a media tabla.
I love these updates, any chance on an April version? 🙂