Il Giro stops Arkéa’s Comeback whilst Movistar & Cofidis Improve | May 2024 UCI Ranking Analysis

Pogacar’s ambition in the Giro did not give much room for the weaker teams to score as much from the breakaway as they may have hoped when they lined up in Turin at the start of May. Only six breakaways were successful, the lowest number since the 2018 edition. In terms of the relegation battle, Arkéa was the worst team in the Giro and remains more than 1,000 points behind the top18, while Astana lamented the abandonment of Lutsenko and moves even deeper into the relegation zone. In this article, we will also review the performance of the teams on the alternative calendar, where Uno-X, absent from the Giro, excelled.

2023-2025 UCI Ranking

As you can see in the ranking, Uno-X and Movistar have gained one position since our last analysis at the end of April and Cofidis has managed to move further away from the relegation zone.

Spain’s only WorldTeam bet everything on the Giro, with hardly any racing on an alternative calendar, and they have achieved a stage victory for Pelayo Sánchez, 7th place for Einer Rubio in the GC and places of honour for Nairo Quintana and Fernando Gaviria in several stages. Movistar needed a good performance in the Giro to reverse the negative trend of recent months. It seems that Movistar will lose Oier Lazkano (to Bora) and Alex Aranburu (to direct rival Arkéa) at the end of the season. These two are their riders with the most points, so it is vital to finish the 2024 season with the biggest possible advantage in order not to suffer in 2025.

With the opposite strategy, Uno-X has been the best team on the alternative calendar, with three victories by Alexander Kristoff and another by Tord Gudmestad. In fact, Uno-X has scored 1,399 UCI points during the Giro d’Italia dates, more than 13 of the 22 teams participating in the Giro. They have cut more than 500 points margin from DSM (18th in the relegation ranking) in May, but it seems difficult for them to maintain this competitiveness in the summer stage races, including the Tour de France. Moreover, to achieve promotion to the WorldTour by the end of 2025, they not only have to match the level of the WorldTeams, but also cut the more than 3,000 UCI points disadvantage they currently have.

In the graph above we can see that Cofidis has scored a solid amount of points in both the Giro and the alternative calendar, achieving in total even more UCI points than Movistar. In the Giro, Benjamin Thomas took the team’s first win in 2024 and Stanisław Aniołkowski was very consistent in the sprints. Axel Zingle and Milan Fretin also won on the alternative calendar, in the Boucles de l’Aulne and a stage of the 4 Jours de Dunkerque respectively.

On the other hand, Intermarché has been the worst WorldTeam during the Giro dates, continuing its injury streak. Biniam Girmay had to leave the Giro d’Italia on stage four, but he has bounced back with a recent victory at the Circuit Franco-Belge (1.Pro) and is now focused on the Tour de France. The team is living off the more than 2,000 UCI points they earned in the first two months of 2023, when they even topped the UCI ranking. Although the trend of the last months is not good, if they recover their regularity, they should not suffer with the relegation battle, as they have numerous riders suitable to score points in one-day races.

Arkéa has lost the "momentum" of the comeback, especially with respect to Cofidis and Movistar. Moreover, Arkéa is now facing a few unfavourable months, with top level stage races predominating until the autumn classics arrive. For the French team, big signing Arnaud Demare's return to his best after his break due to fatigue would be very positive.

2024 Ranking

UAE and Decathlon stand out in the top two positions of the 2024 season-only ranking. Decathlon has been the dominant team in the French continental calendar, but in the Giro it has also shown a stellar level, with stage wins for Valentin Paret-Peintre and Andrea Vendrame, as well as Ben O'Connor's fourth place in the GC. In the graph below, you can see the points scored by each team in this Giro d'Italia.

In the Giro, more was expected from Team DSM, which had gambled a lot with its leaders Fabio Jakobsen and Romain Bardet. Jakobsen had to abandon the Giro due to a crash on stage 11, but he had not been able to compete in any sprint before. Bardet was very combative, but was not at the expected level and finished 9th in the GC. DSM should score more points in the Grand Tours, because in the continental calendar Arkéa gets much more points by covering a wider calendar. At least DSM earned the victory of Casper Van Uden last Sunday in the Rund um Köln (1.1).

In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 22 teams aiming for WorldTour licenses. Pogacar alone has more points than half of the teams.

2025 Wildcards

As for the fight for the 2025 WorldTour wildcards, Lotto Dstny continues to hold a comfortable lead after skipping the Giro, but Israel - Premier Tech has seen its advantage over Uno-X reduced. Israel remains the favourite to hold second place among the ProTeams, but their performance in the Giro was very poor after Michael Woods' retirement after stage five.

The fight to be in the top 40 of the World Ranking by teams has become tighter. The ProTeams need to finish the season in the top 40 to be eligible for the Grand Tours in 2025. Right now, Euskaltel (40th) and Corratec (41st) are on the borderline and will need to improve to finish in the top 40. Interestingly, these teams are struggling in the ranking against WorldTeams development teams such as Israel Academy (34th), Visma Development (42nd), Lidl-Trek Future (43rd) or Alpecin Development (46th).