Primož Roglič delivered his best-ever pure climbing performance on Alto de Moncalvillo, winning his 15th stage in the Vuelta a España and becoming the new race leader.
It was a perfect hockey stick stage for Primož Roglič, finishing atop Alto de Moncalvillo (8.48 km, 8.96%). The Slovenian previously won here in the 2020 La Vuelta against Richard Carapaz, Hugh Carthy, Dan Martin, Aleksandr Vlasov, Enric Mas, and Wout Poels, pushing 6.50 ᵉW/Kg for 24:53 min. In 2024, however, Roglič and the top GC contenders are not pushing such low watts. It was a fairly easy day, as Quentin Pacher only spent 2,989 kilojoules over 3:43h at 12.60 kj/kg/h before Moncalvillo.
The Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe mountain train set a blistering pace for Roglič, stretching the peloton into a single file. With 6 km to go, Dani Martínez, Aleksandr Vlasov, and Roglič managed to create separation from the GC group, while Florian Lipowitz lost Roglič’ wheel and the riders behind failed to close the gap. The Red Bull trio gained significant time, with the GC group paced by Ben O’Connor’s teammate, Valentin Paret-Peintre.
Panicked attacks from David Gaudu, Richard Carapaz, and later Enric Mas ultimately played into Roglič’s hands. He set his own pace and, with 4.9 km to go, was riding solo, while his rivals struggled. Roglič claimed his 15th La Vuelta stage victory, becoming the new race leader after beating Ben O’Connor by 1:49 min on the climb. Gaudu and Mattias Skjelmose eventually caught up with Mas, surpassing him in the final meters. If he can produce a strong time trial performance on Stage 21, Skjelmose might not be far from securing a podium spot at La Vuelta. Stage 20, which features significant climbing, should favour Mas, but Roglič will need to lose a lot of time to lose the race lead.
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In perfect conditions, Roglič delivered a monster climbing performance, pushing 6.97 ᵉW/Kg for 23:55 min, smashing his 2020 time by 58 seconds. This was his best ever performance when adjusted for altitude. Enric Mas was the second-strongest rider, pushing 6.68 ᵉW/Kg for 24:45 min, while David Gaudu improved by 2:39 min compared to his 2020 effort, pushing 6.65 ᵉW/Kg.
While this was Roglič’s best pure climbing effort, it likely would not be enough to defeat Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France, as Evenepoel’s performance on Plateau de Beille nearly matched Roglič’ after one of the toughest climbing stages ever. Almost every top effort adjusted for altitude in the 21st century now comes from 2024, marking a significant leap in cycling performance. Aside from Roglič, the only non-2024 efforts that compare are from Alberto Contador (2009 Verbier), Ivan Basso (2006 Monte Bondone), and Santiago Pérez (2004 Navacerrada). Despite Roglič’ improvement, he remains unlikely to beat Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour. To compete against top GC riders, he needs to become significantly stronger in the harder stages and improve his ability to stay upright in the chaotic nature of the Tour.
Is it really credible that peak climbing performances (w/kg) have improved by 8-14% since Chris Froome?