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INEOS Test their Mountain Train Before the Giro d’Italia

The Tour of the Alps is the perfect preparation race before the Giro d’Italia, so the INEOS Grenadiers, down from their high altitude training camp, sent their Giro d’Italia climbing team for a tune up. Geraint Thomas, Pavel Sivakov, Laurens De Plus, Thymen Arensman, Pavel Sivakov and Tao Geoghegan Hart will all line up in Italy next month but it was unclear who the leader would be here in this mountainous .Pro race featuring Aleksandr Vlasov, Jack Haig and Hugh Carthy. In this first stage we received some answers, as the team effort of the INEOS train brought back Jack Haig before the finish and Geoghegan Hart was the man to finish the job in the last kilometre on a steep gradient.

Tour of the Alps 2023 stage 1 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Many Giro d’Italia GC contenders are using the Tour of the Alps as a preparation race. All five stages are loaded with climbs but this is not an obstacle for Alberto Dainese as DSM has sent the Italian sprinter to perhaps the hardest one-week race for sprinters imaginable. Dainese finished three seconds inside the time limit on Stage 1.

The main climb Kerschbaumer Sattel topped out at 11 km to go followed by a technical descent and a shallower uphill finish. The tempo was not too high before the decisive climb – Simon Carr spent 2409 kilojoules in 2:57h in mild weather conditions.

The INEOS Grenadiers paced the climb from the base with their mountain train led by Laurens De Plus who pulled for a long time after Ben Swift did the lead-out into the bottom. Despite the Belgian showing good legs, this was not to be a good day for Arensman, with the tall Dutchman dropped in the middle of the climb when the group was still quite big.

De Plus pulling

De Plus’ pace was too slow for Jack Haig who attacked with 1.4 km to go. The Australian wins rarely (only two wins in his career) and this race is a good chance to add something to palmares as there is no Roglič, Pogačar, Evenepoel, Vingegaard and other big GC riders like his teammate Landa on the startlist. Jefferson Alexander Cepeda joined Haig as the 10%+ gradients suit the sub-60kg Ecuadorian very well. Cepeda even dropped Haig but there was still a descent and a climb to follow, where he would be at a big disadvantage to the group behind.

Cepeda and Haig pushing hard

Cepeda did the climb in 16:46 min with 6.69 ᵉw/kg. This is not unexpected as Cepeda usually performs well in stage races before the Giro. In 2022 he finished 2nd in the Giro di Sicilia and in 2021 was 4th here in the Tour of the Alps. But after these performances, his level in the following Giro has typically been underwhelming – perhaps this will change now that he is at EF Education EasyPost. The tall Australian Haig was 3 seconds slower than Cepeda but caught quickly the Ecuadorian once the climb levelled off. INEOS with Sivakov led the GC group with 13 riders who lost 15 seconds at the crest, but they did not go full gas as there were still 11 kilometres left in the race. With perfect conditions, Cepeda’s performance is close to the yellow trend-line but this definitely will not be close to the best climbing performance in this race.

INEOS were overall the strongest team in this race and with Geraint Thomas' efforts to close down Jack Haig in the valley, it set the table for his teammates to win the stage. The final kilometre was steep and Tao Geoghegan Hart had enough power for the final 3 minutes to win the stage in a similar style as earlier this year in Valenciana. The GC fields seem balanced and there is not a dominant climber in this race which might make Tour of the Alps more exciting than some of the one-sided stage races so far this year, like Tour of the Basque Country. INEOS have the numbers but it will not be easy for Hart or Sivakov to take the overall victory if Haig and Vlasov can put them under pressure.

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French W/Kg Showdown in Besançon

19-year-old Lenny Martinez continues to perform at a high level on climbs this year and was very close to his first pro victory in Classic Grand Besançon Doubs. Despite resisting multiple attacks from the diminutive neo-pro, Cofidis’ puncheur Victor Lafay had enough strength in his legs to follow on the steep gradients and win the final sprint.

Classic Grand Besançon Doubs profile by La Flamme Rouge

Not many one-day races finish with a climb as there is a high chance everyone in the peloton will wait for the final kilometres to make their move, like in Fleche Wallonne. Belvédère de Montfaucon (3.79 km, 9.23%) is perfect for lightweight climbers and early attacks as the first half of the climb includes 10-14% extended gradients.

As this was a French race, Groupama – FDJ, AG2R Citroën, Arkea-Samsic and Cofidis were active and sent strong riders. It was 19-year-old Lenny Martinez who attacked with 3.1 km to go. Martinez is a very light even for a climber (PCS data: 168cm, 52kg) and obviously suited for steeper gradients. Only Victor Lafay was able to respond to the massive acceleration by the FDJ climbing talent.

Martinez attacks

As Martinez could not drop Lafay there was no point in towing the rival to the finish line, which was slightly flatter in the last 100 metres. Lafay would be the clear favourite in the final sprint against Martinez and he only needed to be patient and sit in the wheel of the young Frenchman, especially with teammate Guillaume Martin not far behind. There were shallower parts in the second half of the climb which suited Lafay more and he began to ride at his own comfortable rhythm to keep the duo clear.

Lafay and Martinez playing games

With no one fully committing, Spaniard Roger Adria closed the gap to the leading duo in the final metres and did a lead-out to guarantee a place on the podium, distancing Guillaume Martin and Thibaut Pinot. Adria is out of contract after this season and it would be logical that Movistar would be keen on signing the young Catalan on Equipo Kern Pharma, as he seems more than capable of scoring points in hilly one-day races.

Lafay opened his sprint first from the wheel of Adria and Martinez had no chance against his punchy compatriot. The 2022 race winner Jesus Herrada finished 7th, despite doing the climb 40 seconds faster than the previous year. The climbing level in 2023 is high even in smaller races during the week.

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As the tempo was high from the bottom, Lafay did huge watts for a 1.1 race – 7.02 ᵉw/kg for 10:45min. This is by far the best we have seen from Lafay and it was a matter of time before he would win a punchy one-day race. The peloton did 13.47 kj/kg/h for 4:10h before the climb which is a moderate pace for a one-day race as everyone’s legs are fresh compared to stage races.

Lenny Martinez will turn 20 in July and he has shown strong climbing performances this year in WorldTour competition. On Lo Port in Volta a Catalunya Martinez finished sixth ahead of Hindley, Landa and other elite climbers. The biggest downside for lightweight climbers is that they fatigue relatively more on the flat before the climbs than bigger guys like Pogačar, Thomas and Vine. Martinez in easy races/stages can push high ᵉw/kg on steep gradients as he showed in this race but he struggles on harder days. In Catalunya, he finished 19th on La Molina and 14th on Vallter 2000 (both are mid-high altitude climbs) and perhaps he is more suited for pure w/kg tests and not hard mountain stages. Regardless, given his youth, he has plenty of time to develop and it must be very encouraging for Groupama-FDJ that he is already performing at this level in Spring. He is scheduled to race in Romandie, Dauphine and La Vuelta where will be plenty of hard climbing days to showcase his talent.

Jonas Vingegaard Pushes All-Time Great Watts

Jonas Vingegaard dominated the Itzulia Basque Country stage race, winning the overall title and three stages. On the final day the Tour de France champion launched on the penultimate Arrate climb and did his career-best pure ᵉw/kg performance.

Itzulia Basque Country 2023 Stage 6 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The final day of Basque Country is always exciting as the parcours contains multiple steep 10-15 minute climbs, offering opportunities for attackers and various tactics. At the start of the stage, a strong breakaway with a dozen GC riders and climbers got a decent gap. The group included two Jumbo-Visma climbers, Attila Valter and Steven Kruijswijk who possibly could be used as satellite riders if the race leader Jonas Vingegaard attacked or conversely needed help in the second half of the stage after the steepest climb, the Krabelin in the middle of the stage.

Eibar – Spain – cycling – Attila Valter (HUN – Jumbo – Visma) pictured during Itzulia Basque Country 2023 – 62th Edition – stage 6 Eibar – Eibar 137,8 km – 08/04/2023 – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Hirschi, Dunbar, Guerreiro, Paret-Peintre, Felipe Martinez, Buchmann, Vanhoucke, Chaves, Armirail and Taaramäe were other riders that made the split. Buchmann was the closest in GC being only 97 seconds behind the race leader Vingegaard but as Jumbo-Visma had two riders and Vallter was only 6 seconds behind Buchmann in the GC, the Dutch team did not need to chase. Bahrain-Victorious had no riders in the leading group and it was Hermann Pernsteiner’s duty to pull the peloton for a long time. There were attempts in the peloton from Mauro Schmid and other riders to bridge the gap to the breakaway but it was clear that Jumbo-Visma had a plan and they were going to launch Vingegaard on the steep Izua climb (4.1 km, 9.0%) with around 30 kilometres to go.

First, it was Sam Oomen who did a strong pull at the base of Itzua. After that Cofidis climber Ion Izagirre upped the tempo on his home climb which was perfect for Vingegaard who a few moments later accelerated and only Enric Mas stayed in his wheel. The Hungarian champion Valter was waiting for his teammate and did a one-minute pull.

Vallter pulling with Vingegaard and Mas in his wheel

After Valter it was Kruijswijk’s time to smash as the Jumbo-Visma masterclass continued. The Flying Dutchman had saved some energy and did a 90-second pull showing great legs like on Plateau de Solaison in the 2023 Dauphiné. Mas was still in the wheel, while Landa was chasing in the background.

Kruijswijk pulling

They caught Ruben Guerreiro, the teammate of Mas, but it was Vingegaard’s time to attack. He distanced Mas immediately as the Spaniard was riding over his limit trying to follow the Jumbo-Visma mountain train, with the Spaniard losing 43 seconds in two kilometres and being caught by the chasing group with Landa and the other GC riders.

Jonas launches

Vingegaard was giving his all and quickly caught Chaves as the last breakaway survivor with Schmid on his wheel. Vingegaard did the climb in 11 minutes and 17 seconds. Felix Gall who was in the GC group before Izua spent 2718 kilojoules for 2 hours and 57 minutes, which is 14.27 kj/kg/h. It is almost 3000 kilojoules for 3 hours and the tempo on climbs was not easy. The GC group did Krabelin in 16:25 min, with Vingegaard pushed 6:17 ᵉw/kg in the draft behind Pernsteiner who was pulling.

Vingegaard flying up Izua

Vingegaard up the Izua did an estimated 7.46 ᵉw/kg for 11 minutes and 17 seconds and became the first rider since Alberto Contador (2009 Verbier) to reach the pink All-Time Top 25 trend-line. Vingegaard already did an impressive performance on La Astuariana climb on Stage 4, which was over the red generational trend-line. This was possible thanks to almost perfect conditions – a low-altitude climb with steep gradients and a hard and steady pace from the bottom.

It was even a headwind up Izua (red sectors - headwind, purple - cross headwind) which maybe helped to push a little bit more watts as the resistance is even bigger.

Izua wind map

Vingegaard won the stage by 47 seconds. After Izau was left the Urkaregi climb (5 km, 4.6%) but unfortunately it is not steep enough to calculate without a big margin of error. The Jumbo-Visma climber did it in 10 minutes and pushed around 6.6-6.8 ᵉw/kg after going full gas on Izua and risking on the descent.

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Remco Evenepoel already did two incredible pure ᵉw/kg performances on Jebel Hafeet and Lo Port which were really close to the pink trendline. It was a matter of time before someone would finally break this barrier and Vingegaard did it first. It would be curious to see what Pogačar, Vingegaard, Vine, Evenepoel, Roglič and other elite climbers would do in a mountain time trial. There will be a mountain time trial in the Giro with Evenepoel and Roglič on the start line but it contains a flat start and is after three weeks of racing. But an Alpe d'Huez or Ventoux uphill ITT in Tour de France would be something else as there is a real chance that records would fall. The Bjarne Riis record up Hautacam under perfect conditions (a flat stage before the climb like in 1996 when Riis did it) also would not be completely safe.

There are 30 performances that are above the Top 25 All-Time trendline (or it should be called now Top 30). This list included nine mountain time trials and 21 road race performances. It is easier to do a performance in a mountain time trial which makes Vingegaard's achievement even more impressive. He is currently 19th in the ranking of pure ᵉw/kg performances in road races. The earliest on this list is the Ventoux ITT performance from Jean-François Bernard who did it in 1987, the only one before the 1990s. Marco Pantani's climbing effort on Flumserberg in 1995 is the best one by a mile.

Vingegaard won three stages and overall titles both in O Gran Camino and Basque Country but in Paris-Nice, where he finished 3rd behind Tadej Pogačar and David Gaudu, his climbing level was nowhere near his shape in Spain. The stages in Paris-Nice were hard but there was a big drop in watts even accounting for all possible factors such as difficulty of the stage, temperature e.t.c.

The level of the GC field was not low in Basque Country, even without Roglic, Pogacar or Evenepoel present to challenge Vingegaard. Mikel Landa on La Asturiana in Stage 4 did one of his best climbing performances and was clearly in good shape in his home race. His best pure performance was on Lo Port in Volta a Catalunya a couple of weeks earlier where all the conditions were perfect.

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

Jumbo and UAE in a league of their Own whilst Astana Crumble | UCI March Ranking Analysis

The WorldTour calendar kicked off in earnest this March with all the stars of cycling appearing in races. This leaves a ranking that is much more representative of the strengths of the various teams compared to this time in February, with a few standout teams both positively and negatively. In addition, we will address the consequences of the new UCI regulations for Grand Tour wildcards, which give greater importance to sporting merit.

2023 Ranking

The ranking reflects what we have all seen on TV this month. Jumbo swept the cobbled races and has almost caught up with UAE in the rankings, despite competing much less until February. While the last few years it seemed that four teams (Jumbo, UAE, Ineos and QuickStep) shared the dominance, now clearly Jumbo and UAE are in another league. Ineos had a budget of around 50 million euros in their last public accounts (2020) and it must be frustrating for them not to be able to consistently compete for victory in either the big one week races or cobbled classics – notwithstanding Pidcock’s superb win in Strade Bianche at the start of the month. Even without Pogacar’s points, Ineos would still be behind UAE in the rankings.

In the graph below, we can see that Jumbo has three of the top four riders of the season so far and UAE has three riders in the top 20. However, Quick-Step, always characterised as a deep team, particularly in the classics, has only Evenepoel in the top 20 so far this season. Their classics team has been a disaster in March, even though Evenepoel’s performance in Catalunya will somewhat ease that pain. Given that Van der Poel, Van Aert and Pogacar are dominating the classics and are all tied down by their respective teams, it would be wise for Quick-Step to focus their efforts on surrounding Evenepoel with quality teammates for the Grand Tours or even to send Evenepoel to some classics in 2024.

Turning to the team ranking, we see that the shadow of relegation is already looming over Astana Qazaqstan Team. The Kazakh squad is already more than 1500 UCI points below the top 18 cutoff and even below nine second division teams. With this trend, they will end this season with a disadvantage that will be very difficult to overcome in 2024 and 2025. To make matters worse, Miguel Ángel López has claimed 1.7 million euros from the team for unfair dismissal and the case is now in the hands of CAS. They are lucky that, with the WorldTour licences granted on a triennium cycle until 2025, they are guaranteed to participate in the best races for the next 3 years, but their current level is certainly not worthy of the WorldTour.

The same teams we mentioned in last month’s analysis (Israel, Cofidis, AG2R, Jayco, DSM and Arkéa) are still in the lower part of the ranking. However, it is remarkable the improvement of Israel compared to last year, culminating with Vanmarcke’s podium at Gent-Wevelgem. Both Israel and Lotto have kept their heads high and performed admirably in the start of 2023, after their relegation to ProTeam status following last year. On the other hand, Arkéa’s situation (in provisional relegation) is not worrying yet, but they are obviously missing Nairo Quintana in the mountainous one-week stage races at the beginning of the season. Whilst not consistently at his peak Movistar level in the last triennium, Quintana was frequently a GC threat for the French outfit in races like Tour de la Provence, Tour des Alpes Maritimes et dur Var and even Paris-Nice. Most likely Arkéa will look to reinforce that aspect of the team in the next transfer market and will also be helping that they can develop new signing Clément Champoussin in this regard.

In the following interactive graphic, you can see the points of all the riders of the 22 top teams, the participants in the Tour de France. With the new UCI rule that the top 20 riders per team score points instead of the top 10, far fewer UCI points are discarded than last year. Therefore, the pressure to score is spread over almost all the riders in the teams, instead of just 10 of them.

2024 Wildcards

In the fight for the automatic wildcards for 2024, Lotto Dstny is very close to securing them with the points they have scored so far. In addition to De Lie, two dark horses like Milan Menten and Frederik Frison have scored 935 points between them, making for a good classics season despite Campenaerts’ injury. Israel – Premier Tech also has a comfortable lead of over 1,000 points in second place, with TotalEnergies not having an ideal start to the season – they are just under 1,000 points behind their score at this point in the season last year.

TotalEnergies and Uno-X expressed their desire to get the automatic wildcards and even move up to the WorldTour by the end of 2025, but they are not being able to score at the pace of Lotto, Israel and the WorldTeams so far. In the case of Uno-X, the lingering injury issues for Tobias Halland Johannessen and Kristoff’s breakaway being caught in Dwars door Vlaanderen have lead to a lower total than they would have hoped for.

New Grand Tour Wildcard rule

Without even publishing a press release, the UCI has modified the Grand Tour wildcard regulations, along with another very relevant aspect, which is the payment of training compensation fees to the teams or clubs involved in the training of a cyclist. From next year onwards, more consideration will be given to sporting merit in the distribution of Grand Tours wildcards. ProTeams will have to finish in the top 50 of the 2023 ranking to qualify for 2024 wildcards, in the top 40 of the 2024 ranking to qualify for 2025 wildcards and in the top 30 of the ranking from 2025 to qualify for wildcards in the following seasons. This will likely be more relevant for the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a España, where one of the domestic wildcard invitees are typically not in the top 30 of the preceding year’s ranking.

The team most under pressure to make the top 50 this year is the Italian Team Corratec, invited to the 2023 Giro, which is currently ranked 97th in the 2023 UCI ranking with just 51 UCI points. Last year Corratec finished 100th, so if the rule had come into effect last year, Team Corratec could not have been invited to the Giro in 2023. The rationale for the rule is clearly to prevent the invitation of radically uncompetitive teams to the sport’s largest events, those invitations often being to the detriment of other teams that sportingly deserve it more.

Cabo de Gata – Spain – cycling – Joan Bou (ESP – Euskaltel – Euskadi) – Jetse Bol (NED – Burgos – BH) – Vojtech Repa (CZE – Equipo Kern Pharma) pictured during 77th La Vuelta ciclista a Espa–a (2.UWT) – stage 11 ElPozo Alimentacion > Cabo de Gata (191.2km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

This rule will surely be welcomed by non-WorldTour teams that are not of French, Italian or Spanish nationality. Right now there is only one French ProTeam (TotalEnergies), so there would be room to invite a foreigner to the Tour de France even if TotalEnergies need a wildcard invitation at the discretion of Amaury Sport Organisation. However, there are three Italian ProTeams and four Spanish ProTeams which, before this rule, left no room for foreign foreign teams to receive a discretionary invitation to the Giro or Vuelta.

The first top50 filter will not be a big change, as all ProTeams except Corratec and Novo Nordisk will probably be able to pass it. But the top40 filter for next year and especially the top30 filter from the 2025 ranking onwards will exclude many ProTeams from the Grand Tours. For example, no Spanish ProTeam has finished in the top 30 of the UCI ranking since 2019. If teams like Uno-X, Bolton Equities, Human Powered Health or Bingoal pass the filter and Italians or Spaniards do not, these teams will have a much higher chance to be invited to the Giro or Vuelta.

Olympic Ranking

Starting this month, we will also take a look at the evolution of the Olympic rankings, as the nation rankings for the 2023 season will decide each nation’s places in the Paris 2024 cycling races. For the nation rankings, the top eight male cyclists and the top five female cyclists from each country are taken into account. There will only be 90 participants for each gender in the road race and 35 in the time trial. In the following tables, you can see the qualification system: the first image corresponds to the road race and the second one to the individual time trial.

Olympic Road Race Qualification System
Olympic Time Trial Qualification System

The first 80 places in the road race are distributed according to the ranking and the other 10 places are for the countries that do not have a place by ranking and have obtained the best places in the World Championships, African Championships, American Championships and Asian Championships. As a result, these will be races with a very small peloton in which a good number of the participants will not be close to WorldTour level. Strategically, having a fourth rider in the road race to act as a domestique is a big advantage compared to the 10 countries who will have just two riders, for example.

In the following graphs you can see how the rankings of both genders are after the first three months of the season. Remember that the rankings started from zero at the beginning of this year.

Right now, the most interesting fight is to get those four quota places in the men’s road race, as just five nations will be able to start with the maximum number of riders. Belgium will almost certainly get them, but then it is very tight between France, Slovenia, Italy, Great Britain, Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, Spain and United States. For its part, Colombia would be left with only 2 places, reflecting the crisis that Colombian men’s cycling is facing with Lopez and Quintana gone and Bernal struggling with injury.

How Clean is Cycling? Analysing the Anti-Doping Fight

The sport of cycling has unfortunately been marred by doping throughout its history, both the acts itself and the speculation surrounding its prevalence in the peloton. But how does cycling stack up against other sports?

Every year, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) publishes the Anti-Doping Testing Figures Report, breaking down information on anti-doping samples. In this article, we will analyse the evolution of anti-doping in cycling and how it ranks compared to other popular sports.

Cycling vs Other Sports

Cycling, counting all UCI disciplines, is the sport with the third highest number of doping samples analysed in 2021 (the last year with data), just behind football. However, there are far more professional athletes in football than in cycling, so in reality doping control as a proportion of the professional population is much higher in cycling than in football. It should also be noted that the major U.S. sports leagues, such as Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Basketball Association (NBA) and the National Football League (NFL), have not signed on to the WADA Anti-Doping Code. Those leagues have their own anti-doping systems that are less onerous than WADA’s.

Looking at the graph above, we can see that cycling is even the first sport in the number of blood samples for the biological passport. The UCI was the first international sports federation to introduce the biological passport in 2008 and is still at the forefront today. The biological passport includes a haematological profile and a steroid profile, which measure the evolution of these values over a period of time. It is an indirect evidence of the use of a doping substance or method, allowing riders to be sanctioned even though they had not provided a positive sample. The majority of blood samples for the biological passport of cyclists are taken out of competition, where the number of urine and blood samples is almost equal.

Focusing on out-of-competition samples, cycling overtakes football, the latter of which falls almost to the level of aquatics. In cycling 63% of its anti-doping tests are out-of-competition, a clear emphasis on limiting the possibility of pre-competition doping. Athletes have to update their daily location in the ADAMS whereabouts system, so they have to be prepared to submit to an anti-doping test anytime, anywhere.

The fight against doping in cycling comes at a significant cost to many of the stakeholders in the sport. For example, each men’s WorldTeam has to pay annually 185,010 euros to the International Testing Agency in order to be registered and the men’s ProTeams each 96,345 euros – over 5 million euros from the top teams alone. The Tour de France has to contribute 214,000 euros and La Vuelta and the Giro 181,900 euros. The cyclists also contribute 2.7% of the already meagre prize money.

The Evolution of Cycling’s Fight against Doping

The number of standard samples analysed in cycling has remained more or less stable since 2009, even despite the growth of women’s cycling. The biological passport has therefore been the major development in the fight against doping in the last decade. In 2020 and 2021, the number of samples analysed was logically reduced due to mobility restrictions because of the pandemic, but it is assumed that the anti-doping pressure is now back to normal from 2022 onwards (2021 is the latest data included in the WADA report).

Despite cycling’s much larger investment in the biological passport compared to other sports, it is not a magic bullet in the fight against doping. Enforcement of biological passport violations, in the absence of a positive standard sample, are often slow and legally difficult. For example, the cyclist Roman Kreuziger was provisionally sanctioned by the UCI in 2014 for abnormal values in his biological passport, but ended up being cleared by the Czech Olympic Committee. Other cyclists such as Juanjo Cobo and Denis Menchov were sanctioned after retiring from competition. The Spaniard lost his 2011 Vuelta a España title eight years later after a long negotiation with the UCI and, importantly, with the rider not having sufficient financial resources to fight the legal battle all the way to the end.

The evidence must be very clear for the UCI to sanction a rider for an irregular biological passport. However, this tool allows them to analyse the haematological values of cyclists and focus their efforts on increased testing of suspicious riders, even if their passport alone does not have the ‘smoking gun’ to sanction them. This is what the UCI calls “intelligent testing.” For example, in the 2010 Tour de France, the UCI developed a “suspicion index” of participating cyclists based on their biological passport values which was leaked by L’Equipe. The purpose and limitations of this suspicion index was discussed in further detail by the INRNG.

The list was leaked by L’Equipe and this photo can be found on The Inner Ring

History shows that the absence of a positive test does not prove the absence of doping. Undetectable substances or methods may be used, which is why the biological passport is useful to show the physiological effects of such substances or methods. Even so, the number of positive tests has been drastically reduced in the last 15 years: from 643 positive tests in 2007 to “only” 146 in 2021. In 2004, 4.6% of the anti-doping samples tested were positive, and that is taking into account that there were many dopers who never tested positive. In 2021, the percentage of positive samples has been reduced to 0.71%, across a larger number of tests compared to the pre-2010 era.

Rather unhelpfully, WADA points out that this is the total number of positive samples, but not all of the positive samples are anti-doping rule violations (ADRVs). An athlete with a valid Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) may trigger a positive test for the relevant substance and that positive test is included within this data even though it will not be an ADRV. TUEs legalise the use of a banned substance for legitimate medical reasons. In addition, positive samples in the report may also correspond to multiple findings on the same athlete. For example, in 2019 in cycling, 149 positive samples constituted anti-doping rule violations (ADRVs), while 46 positive samples were cleared for medical reasons and 25 more were cleared for other unspecified reasons. Hopefully WADA will release separate reports regarding ADRVs using the 2021 data, which we will analyse in due course – the last ADRV report is of 2019 data.

Therapeutic Use Exemptions

The possible abuse of TUEs has been a controversial topic in sport, as TUEs permit athletes to take substances that are otherwise banned. In some instances, TUE authorisation for steroid-based substances has been granted and backdated even after a rider has started a race. Russian hackers Fancy Bears uncovered in 2016 that athletes such as Rafael Nadal, Serena Williams, Simone Biles or cyclists Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, Fabian Cancellara and Jakob Fuglsang made use of TUEs.

The Bradley Wiggins case was particularly controversial, after a British Parliament report stated the following regarding Wiggins’ TUE prior to his 2012 Tour de France victory:

The purpose of this was not to treat medical need, but to improve his power to weight ratio ahead of the race. The application for the TUE for the triamcinolone for Bradley Wiggins, ahead of the 2012 Tour de France, also meant that he benefited from the performance enhancing properties of this drug during the race.

Combatting Doping in Sport – British Parliamentary Report

Importantly, the report also stated that the use of the TUE was within the WADA rules and did not contravene the WADA code. This suggested a deficiency within the TUE process itself, which permitted exemptions for the use of corticosteroids within competition. For some time the use of corticosteroids within competition, even with a TUE, was prohibited for all voluntary member teams of the Movement for Credible Cycling. However, after lobbying from the UCI, WADA introduced an in-competition ban of all injectable glucocorticosteroids from the start of 2022.

Document leaked by Fancy Bears

On its website, the UCI reports on the number TUEs granted from 2015 to 2020. In 2017, 20 TUEs were granted, but since 2018, when the Bradley Wiggins case broke out, no more than 10 TUEs have been granted in a single season. In any case, considering the size of the professional peloton, these are not numbers that warn of widespread use in the peloton.

Remote Locations

Many athletes train outside of Europe, often in remote locations. Training in a remote country can make the UCI suspicious and ultimately be counterproductive for a would-be doper seeking to circumvent testing. In the UCI Regulations for Testing and Investigations, a number of factors are listed to determine which riders should be tested more frequently, and one of them is “moving to or training in a remote location”. In the list (page 22), there are other factors such as “any abnormal biological parameters”, “withdrawal or absence from expected competitions” or “nearing end of contract”.

As you can see on the map below, there are 30 WADA-accredited laboratories worldwide, but there is only one in Africa and one in South America. Unless an athlete is training in Bloemfontein or Rio de Janeiro, samples taken in Africa or South America will have to travel further to a WADA-accredited laboratory compared to if they were taken in Europe, where the vast majority of anti-doping samples are analysed. Logistically, it is also more expensive and complicated to get an anti-doping test carried out in locations with infrequent travel connections or few anti-doping testing agents nearby – bearing in mind that financial resources for anti-doping are limited.

There are also legitimate historical reasons for the UCI regulations including training in a remote location as a reason for target testing. A documentary presented on ARD in 2016 by renowned investigative journalist Hajo Seppelt, alleged that packets of EPO were found in a bin on the premises of an athletic training centre in Iten, Kenya. In the last week, New Zealand’s Olympic long distance runner Zane Robertson was given an eight year ban for an EPO positive test in a race in May 2022. Robertson has been training and living between Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and the Rift Valley in Kenya since he was 17 years old. As part of Robertson’s defence he stated that he attended a medical facility in Kenya to receive the COVID-19 vaccine and was mistakenly administered EPO:

He provided sworn affidavits from Kenyan doctors, hospital notes, a hospital report and a witness statement from a Kenyan detective to support his claims, arguing that there was “no fault or negligence” on his part.

Zane Robertson: New Zealand athlete handed eight-year ban for doping violations, CNN 2023

Robertson received an additional four year ban due to his attempt to subvert the doping control process.

The Future

The data above shows great progress from the beginning of the century until now in the fight against doping in cycling. All stakeholders are making a huge sacrifices in the fight, particularly the riders with their adherence to the daily whereabouts protocol. Despite this, due to the history of cycling and the perception of the sport within the broader populace, it will be very difficult to ever dissociate the terms cycling and doping in the minds of the spectators – who may not think twice about the possibility of doping when watching their local football match.

This scepticism comes at a significant cost for the sport, with the perceived risks of a potential anti-doping scandal causing damage to a sponsor’s reputation perhaps being enough to dissuade large corporations from investing in a team or the broader sport. Whilst nobody can guarantee the complete absence of doping in any sport, the UCI should also consider the dissemination of information regarding the progress and success of the anti-doping fight as an important pillar in combatting doping itself. If athletes perceive the sport to have a level playing field with almost everybody playing by the rules, it is possible in some cases that this could reduce instances of doping:

“It’s been building on me for a few years — frustration and anger at the sport itself, and at any elite sport. I just believe the top is — it’s not a level playing field. I started asking myself this question, ‘Why do people like myself always have to be the ones to lose or suffer and in the end lose our contracts, lose our income, lose our race winnings and eventually end up not having the ability to have a family or live anywhere else in the world from the predicaments we’re in?’

Zane Robertson, Runners Only! Podcast, March 2023

Roglič Makes History on Lo Port | Volta a Catalunya 2023 Stage 5

Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič keep performing at a high level in Volta a Catalunya and today both race favourites pushed the best ᵉw/kg performances of their career (without accounting for altitude, fatigue or heat).

It was a unipuerto day and it was clear the climbing times would be fast as Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič both had the same time on GC before the stage and Quickstep would need to try and make the difference before Sunday in Barcelona. This version of Lo Port (8.6 km, 8.9%) was 300 metres longer than the one used in the 2017 race where Alejandro Valverde did it in 24:06 min with 6,60ᵉw/kg.

The cross headwind was not strong and it influenced the climbing time by a few seconds compared to neutral wind conditions. The difference this made on Lo Port has been around a single watt according to our formula.

Lo Port wind map

Soudal Quick-Step had Fausto Masnada, Jan Hirt and Ilan van Wilder pacing for Evenepoel on the climb. But other teams like Bora-Hansgrohe and Bahrain-Victorious with 6-7 km to go also were present in the front driving the tempo for their respective GC leaders. This early hard pace from the bottom contributed to the huge gaps seen on a climb completed in under 25 minutes.

Van Wilder doing a pull before launching Evenepoel

Ilan van Wilder gave his all and launched Evenepoel in the middle of Lo Port. The pace already was high and such riders as Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal were distanced way before the attack of Evenepoel. Only Primož Roglič and Marc Soler were strong enough to follow immediately with a gap to Hindley, Woods and Almeida. Surprisingly Soler was feeling so great that he even rode upped the tempo for a short period of time without blowing up.

Evenepoel, Roglič and Soler in the leading trio

Evenepoel as usual rode his own tempo like Miguel Indurain did back in the day to prevent attacks and hold his own watts. However unlike on La Molina, this time the World Champion did not fully commit to pacing to the final 500 metres and started playing games with Roglič, causing the trio slowed down. This allowed Joao Almeida to return who is renowned for holding his own tempo and ignoring accelerations. As the Portuguese superstar joined the group, UAE-Emirates teammate Soler started working at the front but it not might have been the right strategy as Roglič and Evenepoel on paper are stronger and it was unlikely that Almeida would outpunch them in the finish. UAE-Emirates could in theory have tried finessing the big duo but even with perfect tactics it would be hard to win as the climb is over 8-9% gradient and Roglič and Evenepoel seem a cut above their competitors in Catalunya.

Soler pacing for Almeida

In the last kilometre, a lot of things happened. After Soler had been distanced Almeida tried a surprise attack but it did not work as Evenepoel closed it. It was obvious that both big favourites legs were fresher than Almeida’s at the end as they had been content to sit in the wheel of Soler without much visible discomfort. After that Roglič accelerated with 600 metres to go and dropped Almeida.

Almeida attacks

It was time for the last acceleration by the World Champion. Evenepoel started his long final effort around the 300-metre mark as he was confident that Roglič had spent his bullets and even got a small gap over the Jumbo-Visma rider. Roglič, in similar fashion to many of his sprints in Tirreno, regathered Evenepoel’s wheel and had clearly been saving energy for the last burst. When the Slovene started his final sprint with 50 metres to go Evenepoel immediately surrendered and lost 6 seconds in a very short time.

Roglič destroys Evenepoel

Roglič after this stage has a 10-second gap over Evenepoel in the general classification and it will be hard to lose the race leader jersey as the last two stages will not end with a mountain top finish. However the final stage in Barcelona is a tricky circuit stage and Roglič has famously lost GC on the final day in the past – except not in Spain.

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Unsurprisingly, the performances on the climb were exceptional. The conditions were absolutely perfect for a high w/kg performance as the stage was fairly easy beforehand, the temperature was mild, the climb is consistently steep and started from just over sea level and did not go to high altitude. Rein Taaramäe before the climb spent 3009 kilojoules in 4 hours and 11 minutes which is 10.66 kj/kg/h, a fairly low intensity for a European WorldTour mountain stage. Multiple teams being willing to pace hard from the bottom, a common trend in 2023, also contributed to the huge performances. The fastest riders pushed around the same watts in the first half as in the second half, with the Quick-Step mountain train in particular doing an outstanding job.

Lo Port – Spain – cycling – Mattia Cattaneo (ITA – Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during 102nd Volta Ciclista a Catalunya (2.UWT) – stage 5 between Tortosa to Lo Port (176.6km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Roglič did the climb in 23:54 min, beating Valverde’s 2017 record by 12 seconds despite the version of Lo Port today being 300 metres longer at a 7.7% gradient compared to 2017. By our estimations Roglič did 6.87 ᵉw/kg, while Evenepoel did 6.90 ᵉw/kg because he was at the front pacing in the wind for longer. This is the best pure ᵉw/kg performance since Alberto Contador’s 2009 performance on Verbier – a similar length of climb. Evenepoel missed the pink All-Time Top 25 trend-line by a very small margin but there will be more chances for him and other riders to break it in 2023. Contador was the last rider to reach the pink trend-line.

Evenepoel already produced a fantastic ᵉw/kg performance on Jebel Hafeet a month ago where he got beaten by Adam Yates at the end. The Belgian might even be more suited to harder stages like La Molina, rather than Lo Port which was fairly easy with no big mountains before the finish. Nonetheless, Catalunya has certainly increased the anticipation for the Giro d'Italia where many of these riders, including Evenepoel and Roglič, will go head to head.

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

Evenepoel Dominates La Molina Against Roglič | Volta a Catalunya Stage 3 2022

Remco Evenepoel showed another great performance in Volta a Catalunya, winning his first mountain stage in 2023 against world-class competition. The Belgian phenomenon attacked at the top of La Molina and only Primož Roglič had the strength to respond after Quickstep had paced much of the last 50km. Despite drafting behind Evenepoel, the Jumbo-Visma leader was not able to hold the wheel up the final short climb when the World Champion opened up his sprint.

Volta a Catalunya stage 3 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

It was a hard climbing stage with a lot of kilojoules spent and fatigued legs after the previous day’s finish up Vallter 2000. Soudal Quick-Step paced Col de la Creuta (18.7 km, 4.9%) hard. With the descent in the middle included they did around 5.3 ᵉw/kg for 43 minutes which is a good effort before the final climb.

Quick-Step pulling hard on Col de la Creuta

Ben O’Connor in the reduced GC group arrived at the base on La Molina with 3754 kilojoules spent for 4 hours and 18 minutes which is 13.00 kj/kg/h. Definitely a hard stage for a World-Tour one-week race at this point in the year and with most of the early climbs having moderate rather than severe gradients. La Molina was the last climb in the race but the final six kilometres were shallow and included a descent.

Jan Hirt and Ilan Van Wilder were pacing as hard as possible for Remco Evenepoel on the final climb who said he was feeling great on this day. It was clear what the Belgian team was doing and everyone in the GC group was expecting an attack from the World Champion. Evenepoel as usual was not riding for some parts of the climb fully in the draft behind teammates, often overlapping wheels. The drafting benefit on 7% gradient sections at the bottom of La Molina still have a big impact. After Van Wilder ended his pull, Evenepoel launched with 4.6 km to go when the gradients were shallow but everyone in the GC group was fatigued and it was a quite a big task to follow such a big acceleration.

Evenepoel attack

Only Primož Roglič closed the gap to Evenepoel but even he was struggling to do that. The Belgian as usual continued to pull with the race leader in the draft. Roglič was struggling and it would not make much sense for him to help Evenepoel.

Evenepoel pulling Roglič

Evenepoel did 6.22 ᵉw/kg for 19:57 min on La Molina, losing only 19 seconds to the climbing record of Miguel Angel Lopez. It was mainly a headwind up the climb (red sections – headwind) and it is an impressive effort after the decently hard stage that was often raced over 1,500 metres altitude. The riders in the GC group lost 20 seconds at the crest, doing 6.05 ᵉw/kg. The climb segment we used ended with 3.8 km to go, so if the stage finished there, it is likely Evenepoel could have gone even faster on the climb proper.

La Molina wind map

Evenepoel had diamonds in the legs and he gapped Roglič at the end of the stage, despite the Slovene sitting in his draft for the entirety of the short descent and uphill ramp. It was Evenepoel’s first mountain stage win in 2023 and despite celebrating early he gapped Roglič by 2 seconds. The GC group lost 13 seconds with Ciccone taking 4 bonus seconds.

La Molina – Spain – cycling – Remco Evenepoel (BEL / Team Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during 102nd Volta Ciclista a Catalunya (2.UWT) – stage 3 between Olost and La Molina (Alp) (180.6km) – Photo: Miwa iijima/Cor Vos © 2023

Roglič and Evenepoel both are on the same time in GC with Roglič keeping the leader’s jersey. Everything will be decided on the hard and steep Lo Port climb on Stage 5 before the finish in Barcelona on Stage 7. Evenepoel is looking great but kilojoules before La Molina might have helped him even as everyone else was more fatigued and Roglič has not had the ideal preparation at the start of this season.

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The average altitude of the La Molina climb is 1425 metres above sea level and it tops out at 1699 metres. Evenepoel’s performance is good considering the last 3.8 km to go after the climb the Belgian continued to pull and still won the sprint against Roglič.

Classic Brugge-De Panne 2023 Preview | Rain and Possible Echelon Action

Brugge – De Panne is one of the most least known WorldTour classics as it takes place mid-week and usually finishes with a peloton sprint. This year the crosswinds might return and with rainy conditions we might have an exciting battle like in 2020.

Start List

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Classic Brugge-De Panne 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The pancake flat classic is perfectly suited for sprinters. There is a high chance of rain throughout the race and strong winds could split the peloton into echelons.

Contenders

There is no Alexander Kristoff or Mads Pedersen on the start-line who both excel in rainy conditions and are great in crosswinds. The main favourite is Jasper Philipsen, followed by Fabio Jakobsen and Olav Kooij. Team strength will be important in covering moves and if the conditions are selective enough, a non-sprinter can win such as in 2020 when Yves Lampaert finished solo across the line solo with Tim Declerq second.

Soudal – Quick Step is a Belgian team and this race is a big opportunity to win one of their home WorldTour classics without the likes of Van der Poel or Van Aert on the start-list. Steimle, Lampaert, Declercq, Ballerini, Van Lerberghe and Vernon will be supporting Jakobsen, who showed in Kuurne last year he can compete in hard one-day classics as long as they are relatively flat.

Lido di Camaiore – Italy – cycling – Fabio Jakobsen (NED / Team Soudal – Quick Step) – Jasper Philipsen (BEL / Team Alpecin Deceuninck) pictured during Tirreno – Adriatico (2.UWT) Stage 2 from Camaiore to Follonica(210km) – Photo: Ivan Benedetto//SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Other big contenders include Jasper Philipsen, arguably the best sprinter and the world, and recent Paris-Nice stage winner Olav Kooij. Jumbo-Visma have not sent their A-team classics squad to this race, but the support of the Van Dijke brothers, Van Emden, Van der Sande, Hofstede and Roosen is still an above average team.

Saint-Paul-Trois-Ch‰teaux – France – cycling – Kooij Olav (NLD) of Jumbo-Visma victory – Mads Pedersen (DEN / Team Trek – Segafredo) – Tim Merlier (BEL / Team Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during Paris-Nice (2.UWT) stage 5 from Saint-Symphorien-sur-Coise to Saint-Paul-Trois-Ch‰teaux (212.4km) – Photo: Nico Vereecken/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

Sam Welsford is high in the betting markets as he won two Vuelta a San Juan sprint stages and started the classics season with multiple podiums and GP Criquelion victory. He was extremely competitive in the cold crosswinds in Scheldeprijs last year in his neo-pro season, as well as crosswinds in the Saudi Tour, so the tough conditions should not present a problem for him.

The contenders’ list is long and the other sprinters attending this race will be Dylan Groenewegen, Sam Bennett, Caleb Ewan, Fernando Gaviria, Juan Sebastian Molano, Gerben Thijssen, Jordi Meeus, Pascal Ackermann, Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud Demare, Mark Cavendish, Søren Wærenskjold, Edward Theuns, David Dekker and Max Walscheid.

Prediction

Sam Welsford has proven to be a very strong rider in flatter races even if they are held in adverse conditions. His 3rd in the windy Scheldeprijs last year and performance in the miserable Ronde van Drenthe the other weekend, bodes well for his chances.

Koksijde – Belgium – cycling – Welsford Sam (AUS) of Team DSM pictured during 21st Bredene Koksijde Classic 2023 (1.Pro) a one day race from Bredene to Koksijde (191.6km) -Photo: Peter de Voecht/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

Ciccone Sets a New Record On Vallter 2000 | Volta a Catalunya 2023 Stage 2

The first mountain top finish in the 2023 Volta a Catalunya ended with a sprint between Remco Evenepoel, Primož Roglič and Giulio Ciccone. The winner was Ciccone, while the Stage 1 winner Roglič retained the leader’s jersey. All of them broke the Vallter 2000 climbing record previously owned by Adam Yates.

Volta a Catalunya 2023 Stage 1 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The stage was fairly easy with one big mountain test at the end. Vallter 2000 (15.1 km, 6.7%) finished at 2147 metres above sea level which gave some advantage to the well adjusted high altitude climbers. Ben O’Connor spent 2963 kilojoules for 3 hours and 41 minutes in the peloton before Vallter 2000, which is 12,01 kj/kg/h – a moderate difficulty pre-climb.

The real action on the climb started with 6.4 km to go, when Esteban Chaves attacked as the Bahrain-Victorious train pace was not thinning out the group. The Colombian champion won on Port Ainé in the 2021 Volta a Catalunya with a similar attack and performs well at altitude. Sepp Kuss tried to follow the attack but the acceleration was too hard. Jack Haig was pulling for his team leader Mikel Landa in the GC group. Chaves teammate Richard Carapaz dropped early on the climb and was the best chance left for EF Education EasyPost.

Chaves attacks

Haig was holding a steady tempo for a three kilometres while the gap grew to 33 seconds. After the Australian stopped pulling Ilan van Wilder, the mountain domestique for Remco Evenepoel, started pacing as hard as he could. With 2 km to go Landa finally attacked but the World Champion closed the gap while race leader Primož Roglič was sitting in the draft and saving energy.

Haig looking back at the other riders in the GC group

Due to a crash on Stage 1 Adam Yates lost 10 minutes on the opening day but was not pulling for his teammate Joao Almeida. Yates was trying to follow Evenepoel’s group while at the same time, Almeida was struggling and riding alone after returning from an unfortunate mechanical early in the climb.

With less than 2 km to go Evenepoel tried to drop everyone by accelerating multiple times. The Belgian continued to pull hard with Roglič and Ciccone in the wheel but was not strong enough to gap them, however his efforts were at least enough to catch Chaves with around 600 metres remaining to the finish.

Vallter – Spain – cycling – Giulio Ciccone (ITA / Team Trek – Segafredo) – Primoz Roglic (SLO / Team Jumbo-Visma) – Remco Evenepoel (BEL / Team Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during 102nd Volta Ciclista a Catalunya (2.UWT) – stage 2 between Matar— to Vallter (165.4km) – Photo: Szymon Gruchalski/Cor Vos © 2023

The finish was twisty and Evenepoel was the first to launch. It was too early and both Ciccone and Roglič were able to undercut the Belgian in the final sharp corner to finish ahead of him. The finish was steep and Ciccone outsprinted Roglič by a small margin, franking his form shown in his victory on the mountain top finish in Volta a Valenciana on Puerto de Bernia earlier this year. This was his first World Tour win outside of the Giro d’Italia and revenge against Roglič, as Ciccone finished second behind the Slovenian on the Sassotetto climb in Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 5 this month.

Cian Uijtdebroeks performed well against strong World Tour competition and finished 10th in the same group as Hindley, Woods and Chaves – just 15 seconds back from the stage winner. Uijtdebroeks turned 20 three weeks ago and this is a massive performance at such young age.

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Ciccone, Roglič and Evenepoel all did the climb in 31 minutes and 51 seconds, which is a new record. The former record holder Adam Yates was by 17 seconds slower two years ago and today finished fifth. Evenepoel did 6.06 ᵉw/kg by our estimations, which is around 0.03 ᵉw/kg higher than Ciccone and Roglič as the Belgian pulled more in the finale. Esteban Chaves, despite finishing 15 seconds back, did 6.10 ᵉw/kg as he attacked with 6 kilometres and was without draft for a long period of time.

This performance is more impressive than the basic w/kg suggest, as the climb tops out at 2150m where the reduction in oxygen levels in the air does increase the difficulty to put out the watts. Evenepoel looked the strongest today and there will be two more mountain stages for him to take the race leader jersey.

The Climbs of Volta a Catalunya 2023

Volta a Catalunya might be the most interesting one week stage race this year. This is partly thanks to the elite startlist, that is headlined by the main Giro d’Italia contenders Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic but also includes Landa, Almeida, Bardet, Uijtdebroeks and the returning Egan Bernal among others. This headline talent, combined with a route that includes three hard summit finishes, makes this race a perfect indicator of climbing level, especially for the Giro d’Italia contenders.

Next to these three GC stages, there are three stages for sprinters that can survive a hill or break riders and the traditional circuit around Barcelona, that could potentially lead to a few small gaps. Below we will analyse the climbing stages and what we expect from each climb.

Vallter 2000, Stage 2

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,10ᵉw/kg ~ 31’58min – 22,79km/h – 1663 VAM

There will not be a time trial in the route so the climb to Vallter 2000 (12,14km at 7.3%) will be the first opportunity for riders to try and gain a significant advantage in the General Classification. This means we can expect to see several attacks during the climb. Vallter 2000 is a climb that’s been used frequently in the Volta a Catalunya, most recently in 2021 when Adam Yates triumphed and broke the climbing record. The record of 32’08min (6,05ᵉw/kg by Yates) is certainly within reach for the contenders this year, if the tactical games do not get out of hand and there is not a strong headwind.

The stage features another Cat 1 climb, the Coll de Coubet (10,3km at 5,4%), but is overall quite easy before the final climb. Nonetheless, there can be serious gaps on Vallter 2000, thanks to the high altitude.

Some contenders will certainly already fall out of the GC completely, but the majority of them should still be within reach after Vallter 2000, as the climb and stage are not overly difficult. The only chance to gain serious time might be playing the team game, as the draft effect is still quite high on the rather fast speeds that will be achieved on this climb. This means Remco Evenepoel will have a serious disadvantage against teams such as Bahrain (Landa, Haig, Mäder) or Bora (Hindley, Uijtdebroeks) that have multiple cards to play.

Luke Plapp (GBR – INEOS Grenadiers) – Steven Kruijswijk (Netherlands / Team Jumbo-Visma) pictured during the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2022 – 101st Edition – stage 6 between Salou and Cambrils (167.6KM) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

If QuickStep cannot keep the tempo high enough, Remco’s best play will be to attack himself and anticipate other attacks, such as the move of Yates in 2021. This will reduce the amount of second options in the group and might even lead to him winning solo. Evenepoel definitely is strong enough to defend or attack on this stage, which he proved with an immense display on Jebel Hafeet and by breaking multiple high level Strava KOM’s during his recent altitude camp on Teide. Nonetheless, the stacked teams opposing him will be a real challenge on this climb. Yates crashed hard on stage 1, falling out of GC but finishing the stage, otherwise he would have been another big contender for the stage.

La Molina, Stage 3

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,15ᵉw/kg ~ 19’58min – 25,55km/h – 1647 VAM

La Molina might be the easiest finishing climb of the race, but is preceeded by a really challenging stage with 3995 meters of altitude gain in total. Even with this hard stage design, serious gaps are very unlikely on this 8,5km climb with an average gradient of 6,45%, then followed by 4km of rolling terrain to the finish.

Even a weaker team should be able to control this climb and the group surviving until the finish might be quite large. The best chance for GC movement will once again be a move of a secondary contender that has lost some time on Vallter 2000 already, similar to Ben O’Connor’s attack that led to the stage win last year or Rubio’s move on Jebel Jais for Movistar in the UAE Tour in February.

Other than that, GC movement is only possible with a very hard tempo that would improve upon the best time on La Molina in our database: 19’51min at 6,53ᵉw/kg. This is quite unlikely however, as the route offers multiple better opportunities to decide the General Classification such as Vallter 2000 and Lo Port.

Lo Port – Mont Caro, Stage 5

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 7,00ᵉw/kg ~ 23’01min – 21,64km/h – 1934 VAM

The climb of Lo Port – Mont Caro is undoubtedly the hardest of the race, featuring 8,3km at 8,94%. It is almost a perfect ~24min ᵉw/kg test with ideal conditions. The stage features no real difficulties before the final climb, meaning fatigue should be low. The climb itself is at low altitude and quite steep, so the tempo will likely be very high from the start, especially as the time gaps should still be quite small. Given that the race is in early Spring in rural Catalunya, the temperature is typically around a perfect 15 degrees. These conditions led to several riders pushing career best numbers in 2017, when the climb was last used.

Lo Port (Tortosa) – Spain – wielrennen – cycling – radsport – cyclisme – Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE (Spain / Team Movistar) pictured during stage – 5 of the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2017 – photo Miwa iijima/Cor Vos © 2017

Alejandro Valverde set the climbing record back then, with 6,60ᵉw/kg for 24’06min. Breaking this record seems very likely for Remco Evenepoel, who has already shown immense capabilities on such a watt test. He pushed 6,78ᵉw/kg for 26’02min on Jebel Hafeet, where he was still 3kg over race weight according to himself and had not been on an altitude camp yet.

As the much cooler conditions here should be even more ideal than on Hafeet and Evenepoel will be in even better shape, we could see a historic performance in this race. Adam Yates also showed immense capabilities in the UAE Tour, but his exploits on Jebel Hafeet have never really translated to European races and with his unfortunate crash on Stage 1 he is unlikely to be bucking that trend.

Due to the lower speed on these high gradients, double leader strategies will not be as advantageous as on the other climbs in this race. This stage should be decided on pure strength and it will be interesting to see which team lights up the climb first. That will of course depend on the GC situation, but all teams seem to have a lot of fire power here, so it should not have a big impact on the tempo.

Sassotetto – Italy – cycling – Primoz Roglic (SLO – Jumbo – Visma) – Giulio Ciccone (ITA – Trek – Segafredo) – Tao Geoghegan Hart (GBR – INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during Tirreno – Adriatico (2.UWT) Stage 5 from Morro d’Oro – Sarnano to Sassotetto (168 km) – Photo: Roberto Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Roglic could very well be in the leaders jersey before this stage, as the first two summit finishes are not super difficult and he has the ability to gain bonus seconds especially on the punchy stages, such as Stage 1 which he won. Even if that is the case, I do not see him defending the jersey here. Roglic might have dominated Tirreno Adriatico, but the hard summit finish was shortened and then ridden very slowly due to the head wind. It seems very unlikely to me that he can follow Evenepoel, who will likely ride several kilometers on the front at a very hard tempo, similar to his tactics on Gaustatoppen (Tour of Norway), Pico Jano (Vuelta a España), Jebel Hafeet (UAE Tour) and other climbs.

Conclusion

Remco Evenepoel will be at a disadvantage compared to teams with several leaders, especially on the first two summit finishes. However he still brings strong climbing support and remains my favourite to win the General Classification of the Volta a Catalunya, as he is simply by far the strongest rider in this race. The climbs, especially Lo Port, suit him perfectly. His team support will also be superior compared to the sprint / rouleur squad that accompanied him at UAE Tour, having the newly signed Jan Hirt and Ilan Van Wilder as his last mountain domestiques.

Velódromo Vicente Chancay – Argentina – cycling – Remco Evenepoel (BEL – Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during Vuelta a San Juan 2023 – 40th Edition – stage 6 – Velódromo Vicente Chancay to Velódromo Vicente Chancay (144,9km) – Photo: Ilario Biondi/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Almeida and Landa are my predictions to complete the podium, as they were in very good shape, even on stages that did not traditionally suit them, recently at Tirreno-Adriatico. I am still very sceptical of Roglic’s current level on the longer climbs and believe he will get dropped badly at least once in this race.

Make sure to check in here during the race for watts estimations and articles on the various climbing performances, which could be quite astronomical.

Gabriel Stróżyk (@NaichacaCycling)