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Volta a Catalunya 2023 Preview | Evenepoel and Roglič Dance Before the Giro

March 19, 2023

6 minute read

The Volta a Catalunya route this year includes three mountain stages with a stacked start list full of strong GC riders. It will be a treat for w/kg aficionados and an important test before the Giro d’Italia with multiple of the big contenders for that race starting here, including Remco Evenepoel, Primož Roglič and Geraint Thomas.

Start List

Data powered by FirstCycling.com

Stage 1

This is not a stage race suited for sprinters and the opening day’s “sprint stage” will have more than 2,000 metres of elevation gain. The uphill finish might not be hard enough for Primož Roglič but many hills in the last part will make the job for fast finishers like Kaden Groves, Bryan Coquard, Corbin Strong, Hugo Hofstetter, Milan Menten and Ethan Hayter harder. In 2022 Michael Matthews won on this finish which suits versatile sprinters. This is the same stage where Sonny Colbrelli was second but collapsed immediately after the stage as he suffered cardiac arrest and it was his last race before retirement.

Stage 2

The first mountain top finish will be up Vallter (15.1 km, 6.7%) which tops at 2147 metres above sea level. The stage before it is relatively easy and there should be good high-altitude performances with fresh legs if the pace is high from the base.

The steepest part is in the middle with 8-10% gradient sections. The climbing record is owned by Adam Yates who in the 2021 Volta a Catalunya attacked early and did the Vallter 2000 steep section (12.14km; 7.30%) in 32:08 min, pushing 6.05 ᵉw/kg. Remco Evenepoel, Primož Roglič, Richard Carapaz, Egan Bernal, Sepp Kuss, Adam Yates and other big contenders will definitely test their legs but even if they go full gas and the climbing time is fast, the time gaps should not be too big. Maybe an exception would be if Evenepoel does something special and drops everyone early but it will not be easy to distance Roglič who won three stages in Tirreno-Adriatico and might be in better shape in Catalunya.

Stage 3

The second mountain stage but this one has multiple climbs before an easier finish. Almost 4,000 metres of climbing elevation and the fatigue from the previous day should make gaps bigger on La Molina (8.4 km, 6.5%) than we usually see.

In 2022 Ben O’Connor attacked early and won the stage as the teams in the peloton did not try their best to catch the Australian. It was the first mountain stage and behind Ben O’Connor a large group finished with 26 riders. The fatigue in the legs and 7% gradients at the start might be enough for bigger gaps if the pace is high and the earlier climbs have been ridden at a reasonable tempo. If Evenepoel gets a gap early he might take a lot of time as shallower gradients favour the aerodynamic World Champion, with Kuss and Kruijswijk likely responsible for bringing back any attacks for Roglič.

Stage 4

The real day for sprinters. Kaden Groves won a Catalunya stage in 2022 and will be one of the favourites. Milan Menten is in terrific shape and might get his first WorldTour win here against a shallower sprint field compared to what he has already beaten this season.

Stage 5

This is the perfect stage for an extremely high w/kg performance. Remco Evenepoel is in this race after altitude camp and, depending on the GC situation, one of the big teams should pace hard at the bottom of the climb. The relatively easy day before and the flat route before the low altitude Tortosa climb (8.6 km, 8.8%) are tailor-made for big watts. If Remco Evenepoel goes full gas like on Jebel Hafeet we might see an extraordinary performance.

Alejandro Valverde in 2017 did the climb in 24:06 min with 6,60ᵉw/kg. One of the best pure w/kg performances in the Sky era prior to COVID-19. The 8-10% regular gradients are perfect for high watts and steep enough to distance rivals. It is also the last mountain top finish where the GC contenders can make big gaps, so there is no need to save their legs.

Stage 6

Stage 6 looks like a breakaway stage with a hilly route and two harder climbs at the end. It might be too hard for the few sprinter teams to control it for 180 kilometres and there is a 1.9km at 8.8% hill in the final 17 kilometres that will also be a concern for Alpecin (Groves) and Cofidis (Coquard).

Stage 7

The classic Barcelona stage will end this marvellous race. In recent years both the breakaway and the GC group/peloton has been able to win, such as De Gendt solo in 2021 after dropping Mohoric and Bagioli sprinting in the large GC group last year. The GC situation should not change much on Barcelona hills but if the gaps are close the big favourites might want to try something or at least take advantage of bonus seconds.

Contenders

Primož Roglič in the betting markets is the favourite to win the race. The Slovene dominated Tirreno-Adriatico where there was no Pogačar, Vingegaard or Evenepoel. Sepp Kuss performed well in the UAE Tour and this time there is no time trial in Catalunya which is practically a home race for the American. He lives in Andorra and knows many of the climbs really well – often training north of Barcelona.

San Benedetto del Tronto – Italy – cycling – Primoz Roglic (SLO – Jumbo – Visma) pictured during Tirreno – Adriatico (2.UWT) Stage 7 from San Benedetto del Tronto to San Benedetto del Tronto (154km) – Photo: Ivan Benedetto//SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Remco Evenepoel continues his preparation for the Giro d’Italia and will arrive from a high-altitude camp in the Canary Islands. Evenepoel did some impressive efforts on Teide and should be in good shape. This will be a battle before the Giro against Roglič, Joao Almeida, Geraint Thomas, Jack Haig, Giulio Ciccone and other GC contenders who also plan to start the Italian Grand Tour. There are no ITT kilometres but Evenepoel is strong enough to make gaps in mountains by setting a hard pace by himself. Soudal Quick-Step has sent Hirt, Van Wilder, Masnada, Vervaeke, Cattaneo and Serry which is their Giro provisional squad except Ballerini as there is only 7 riders allowed to participate per team in a one-week WT stage race.

Al Mirfa – United Arab Emirates – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – wielrennen – Remco Evenepoel (BEL – Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during UAE Tour 2023 – 5th Edition – stage 1 from Al Dhafra Castle to Al Mirfa (151 km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

INEOS has sent Geraint Thomas, Egan Bernal and Luke Plapp. For all three INEOS GC riders this will be the first European race of the season. Bernal did very well in Vuelta a San Juan on Alto Colorado and continues to improve after his horrible crash a year ago, although he had to abandon the race after hurting his knee in a crash earlier in the Argentinian stage race. Thomas has had health problems this year and did not start in Tirreno-Adriatico.

UAE-Emirates will not have Jay Vine and Juan Ayuso whom both were supposed to race here. Vine is recovering from the knee injury which caused him to abandon the UAE-Tour while Ayuso still has not started in 2023 as he is reportedly suffering from tendonitis. The Spanish super talent might return at Tour de Suisse in June. Almeida will share leadership with Adam Yates, the latter of whom has already competed in two WorldTour stage races this season. UAE-Emirates might use Yates as an attacking rider on climbs while Almeida would sit in the draft behind Evenepoel, Roglič and other GC riders as he prefers constant pace. When Yates attacked early en route to his win on Vallter 2000 in Catalunya 2021, it was in fact Almeida doing much of the chasing behind with Yates’s teammates on INEOS, Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas, on the Portuguese rider’s wheel.

Alto do Malhao – Portugal – cycling – Joao Almeida (POR – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during stage 4 of 49th edition of the Volta Algarve cycling race, with start in Albufeira and finish in Alto do Malhao – Photo: Roberto Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

The start list is otherwise packed with GC talent. Ben O’Connor, Richard Carapaz, Mikel Landa, Louis Meintjes, Romain Bardet, Gino Mader, Giulio Ciccone, Michael Woods, Lenny Martinez, Esteban Chaves Tobias Halland Johannesen, Jack Haig and Cian Uijtdebroeks will be other riders to watch for overall.

Prediction

Remco Evenepoel. He will want to win this race and test his legs against Roglič before the Giro d’Italia. Evenepoel did a high-altitude camp and if everything went well he should be flying even if this is just a preparation race.

Jebel Jais – United Arab Emirates – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – wielrennen – Remco Evenepoel (BEL – Soudal – Quick Step) pictured during UAE Tour 2023 – 5th Edition – stage 3 from Umbrella Beach Al Fujairah to Jebel Jais (185 km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Race Previews

Milano-Sanremo 2023 Preview | Who Will Win The First Monument?

byKārlis Ozols

March 17, 2023

7 minute read

One comment

Most of Milano-Sanremo is a boring race but the final kilometres never disappoint with a hard tempo expected on the Cipressa and attacks from big stars on the Poggio guaranteed. This is the easiest monument to finish but the hardest to win as there are many possibilities and options and a wide range of riders can win that might not be mentioned in this preview at all.

Start List

Data powered by FirstCycling.com

Milano-Sanremo 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

With 294 kilometres it is the longest one-day race on the pro calendar. The finishing times vary in the last editions from 6:27h to 7:18h. The intensity before the final 55 kilometres is extremely low before the three Capo Mele, Capo Cervo and Capo Berta begin. Positioning is important in the last hour as the tempo is very high on shallow gradients up and down. Usually on Capo climbs there are some attacks on descents but nothing serious.

The real action starts on the Cipressa (5.6 km, 4.1%), where the sprinters start dropping as the strongest teams pace as hard as possible for their leaders.

In 2022 UAE-Emirates and Davide Formolo completely shattered the peloton on shallow gradients for Tadej Pogačar. Only around 20 riders were left in the first group. Positioning is important and the steepest 6%+ sections are in the first kilometre. The final kilometre is relatively flat.

UAE-Emirates pace hard up Cipressa

UAE-Emirates have brought this year Wellens, Trentin, Novak, Covi, Großschartner, Ulissi and Trentin as domestiques for Pogačar. A very powerful squad for short climbs and it is likely that UAE will set as hard a tempo as possible on the Cipressa and Poggio. Mathieu van der Poel in 2021 spent 5171 kilojoules before Cipressa and averaged 230w for 6:15h which usually is lower Zone 2 for pro riders with a weight of around 75kg.

After the descent and a short valley, the real action will start on Poggio (3.6 km, 3.7%). A very short sub-six-minute climb where the race always explodes. Attacks from the top favourites start in the last kilometre on the 8% section right before the crest. Julian Alaphilippe and Philippe Gilbert always attacked there as it is the perfect spot to get separation.

In the 2022 edition, Søren Kragh Andersen attacked on the steepest part and put many riders under pressure but it was not enough to make a gap as Tadej Pogačar and others were able to follow. Pogačar attacked in the headwind on shallower gradients in the beginning of the climb but this later spot is the place to make a move if you have the legs.

Soren Kragh Andersen attacks on Poggio in 2022

There will be a 7 m/s wind blow during the Poggio ascent. The first part will be in headwind/crosswind while the straight section in the second half will be crosswind/cross tailwind (purple and dark blue sections) which suits attacks. The Strava KOM is shared by Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski who both did the climb in 5:41 min in the 2019 edition with an average speed of 38.3 km/h. Drafting is extremely important at such speeds and the climb is so fast that riders must even break into the sharpest corners. Depending on their weight, riders might average around 6.5 to 7 w/kg on the Poggio. As it is shallow the heavier classics specialists like Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert are perfect for it, as well as of course Tadej Pogačar.

After the Poggio, there is the technical descent after which there are less than three kilometres to the finish. Mohorič in 2022 won thanks to his fearless attack on the Poggio descent and motorbike draft which has influenced the race on multiple occasions. In 2021 Jasper Stuyven attacked at the last part of the descent and no one closed him immediately as he was not the main favourite.

Mohorič descent attack in 2022

Contenders

The last time the race was won by a sprint from a peloton was in 2016 by Arnaud Demare. Since then there have been multiple scenarios from a solo winner (Nibali, Mohoric, Stuyven) to two up sprints (Van Aert, Kwiatkowski) and reduced group sprints (Alaphilippe). As the tempo has become higher on both climbs it is harder for pure sprinters like Sam Bennett, Arnaud Demare, Mark Cavendish and Fernando Gaviria to hold on in the peloton. Arnaud De Lie, Mathieu van der Poel, Magnus Cort, Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert, Caleb Ewan, Mads Pedersen, Jasper Philipsen and Jonathan Milan all are on the start list and can get over short climbs well for fast guys who might win from a bunch. Given the squad lining up for UAE Team Emirates, it is very unlikely that we will see a huge peloton sprint on Saturday, with their puncheurs surely setting a 7 w/kg+ tempo the Cipressa and Poggio.

Pogačar and Van Aert are the main favourites to win, with both their odds at $6.00. Matej Mohorič, the winner of the 2022 edition, was for a long time the biggest favourite according to bookmakers but the Slovenian has dropped to 4th-5th place shared with Mads Pedersen at $12.00. Mohorič can win from a descent attack again and he is strong enough to surprise with an attack in the last kilometres or even has a good shot of winning from a small bunch sprint.

Fontainebleau – France – cycling – Mads Pedersen (DEN – Trek – Segafredo) pictured during Paris-Nice (2.UWT) stage 2 from Bazainville to Fontainebleau (163.7km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Pogačar is the strongest climber on the start list but even if he gets a gap on Poggio his descending skills might not be enough to hold a gap. Pogačar overall is an excellent rider but descending might be his biggest weakness. It is not terrible but also it is not world-class. Pogačar is a strong sprinter for a GC rider but against Van Aert, Van der Poel or De Lie and Pedersen it will be very hard to win. Pogačar beat Van Aert in GP Montreal with a strong and long sprint but Milano-Sanremo is much than GP Montreal where the Belgian could barely open up his sprint after a succession of hard climbs.

Sanremo – Italy – cycling – Tadej Pogacar (SLO – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during 113th Milano-Sanremo (1.UWT) a one day race from Milano to Sanremo (293KM) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Wout van Aert started his season in Tirreno-Adriatico as a supporting rider for Primož Roglič. The Belgian won Milano-Sanremo in 2020 outsprinting Julian Alaphilippe head to head. It is his only monument victory and he needs more big wins on palmares. Jumbo-Visma has brought Laporte, Tratnik, Valter, Affini, Van Hooydonck and Van Emden. A very strong squad as multiple teammates of Van Aert might survive after the Poggio to pull for Van Aert if does not get a gap himself. Van Aert has lost many sprints after long races and there will be big pressure on him. It will be hard for him to get a gap on Poggio but his descending skills are great and he might try a long-range attack as his sprint after long races is not reliable. Laporte if he is in the group might be a better option as the Frenchman won the bunch sprint in the 2022 World Championships for 2nd place against Van Aert, Matthews, Sagan, Trentin, Kristoff, Garcia Cortina and Hayter.

Van der Poel has not started the season in top condition. 15th in Strade Bianche and no Top 10 in any of the stages in Tirreno-Adriatico is below expectations for a rider of his caliber. But he is Van der Poel and will definitely be on of the favourites for another monument win. His teammates Søren Kragh Andersen and Jasper Philipsen also have a shot at winning. Kragh Andersen looked strong in the last hilly stage of Paris-Nice and is capable of winning like Jasper Stuyven in 2021. The Dane was actually the only rider to bridge across to Stuyven and pulled for him in the last kilometre, but finished 9th himself in the middle of bunch that passed him at the last moment.

Sanremo – Italy – cycling – Soren Kragh Andersen (Denmark / Team DSM) pictured during 113th Milano-Sanremo (1.UWT) a one day race from Milano to Sanremo (293KM) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Julian Alaphilippe has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in Milano-Sanremo and will want to get his first big victory of the season. Soudal-Quick Step has sent a strong supporting team for the Frenchman. INEOS-Grenadiers will miss Tom Pidcock who will not start because of a concussion he suffered in Tirreno-Adriatico. Formolo, Matthews, Schachmann and Nizzolo for various reasons also will be missing. INEOS has sent Narvaez, Sheffield, Ganna, Kwiatkowski, Heiduk, Rowe and Ben Swift. It is hard to see how Ganna could win this race. Ganna maybe could win like Stuyven in 2021 with a surprise attack after Poggio but it is unlikely. Sheffield is powerful and has the watts to do well, with positioning the big question mark.

Prediction

Arnaud De Lie has been fabulous in 2023 and has proved he can get over climbs and is very strong for a big sprinter. Caleb Ewan also will start for Lotto-DSTNY but De Lie is possibly a generational one-day classics rider and this would be his first huge win. The Bull only turned 21 on this week but cycling has proved in recent years that the biggest races are often won by young super talents. The wind on Poggio might suit attackers but I am bullish on De Lie to win.

Kuurne – Belgium – – cycling – Arnaud De Lie (BEL / Team Lotto – Dstny) pictured during Kuurne – Bruxelles – Kuurne (1.Pro) Elite men (1.UWT) a one day race between Kuurne and Kuurne (132.2km) – Photo: Davy Rietbergen/Cor Vos © 2023

Race Recaps

Tadej Pogačar Produces One of Best Performances | Paris-Nice Stage 8 2023

byKārlis Ozols

March 12, 2023

3 minute read

3 comments

Tadej Pogačar in the early season is unstoppable, today achieving his third stage win in Paris-Nice 2023 and overall victory in the prestigious WorldTour stage race. On the final day on Col d’Eze the Slovenian produced a very good climbing performance, dropping everyone on the short climb and winning by a huge margin.

Paris-Nice stage 8 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The stage was short and full of medium mountains. Wout Poels attacked early on the Cote de Peille climb (6.42 km, 7.20%) and did 6.38 ᵉw/kg for 16:36min. This was the climb where the action kicked off in Paris-Nice last year, but the weather was significantly better this year. The peloton with GC riders was 30 seconds slower and pushed on the climb 5.93 ᵉw/kg in the draft, saving a lot of energy.

Nice – France cycling – Poels Wout (NLD) of Bahrain – Victorious pictured during stage 8 of the 81th edition of the Paris – Nice cycling race, a stage of 118,4km with start in Nice and finish in Nice on March 12, 2023 Photo: Nico Vereecken/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

Everything was decided on Col d’Eze. It was climbed from the steep western side which was used in the 2022 Paris-Nice edition. When arriving to the base with the GC group, Matteo Jorgenson spent 2568 kilojoules in 2:40 hours which is 13.78 kj/kg/h. A high/moderate tempo but nothing close to the 2022 levels when Jumbo-Visma paced very hard from the beginning of the stage.

The pace was high from the bottom of Col d’Eze thanks to UAE-Emirates’ new climber Felix Großschartner who gave all his energy. After the Austrian finished his pull Simon Yates accelerated with 4.3 km remaining but Pogačar had diamonds in the legs on this day and the Slovene launched a strong attack with 4 km to the crest on his home roads, with no one able to respond.

Nice – France cycling – Simon Yates (GBR – Team Jayco AlUla) – Tadej Pogacar (SLO / UAE-Team Emirates) – Jonas Vingegaard (DEN / Team Jumbo-Visma) pictured during stage 8 of the 81th edition of the Paris – Nice cycling race, a stage of 118,4km with start in Nice and finish in Nice on March 12, 2023 Photo: Nico Vereecken/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

The wind was neutral on the climb but there was more tailwind (light blue sections) and crosswind (dark blue) on sections where Pogačar attacked and was solo while the headwind part was more in the beginning (red) when Pogačar and others GC riders were sitting in the draft.

Pogačar won by 33 seconds and was not brought back by the GC group containing Vingegaard, Gaudu, Yates and Jorgenson. It was his 3rd stage win in the 2023 Paris-Nice and good preparation for Spring classics.

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

Pogačar did the climb in 15 minutes and 22 seconds, while pushing an estimated 6.97 ᵉw/kg. The closest rivals lost 42 seconds to the UAE-Emirates superstar on the climb alone. Pogačar was by 1 minute and 29 seconds faster than Simon Yates in 2022 but there was a very strong headwind on that day – one of the strongest headwinds we have taken into calculations in the last few years.

Race Recaps

Pogačar Successfully Defends On La Couillole | Paris-Nice Stage 7 2023

byKārlis Ozols

March 11, 2023

2 minute read

2 comments

Tadej Pogačar won his second mountain top finish in the 2023 edition of Paris-Nice, with a convincing effort up Col de la Couillole. David Gaudu and Jonas Vingegaard tested the Slovenian’s legs but they failed to distance the dual Tour de France champion, who won the uphill sprint in customary fashion.

Paris-Nice Stage 7 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The long Col de la Couillole climb (15.9 km, 7.4%) suited Pogačar well as there were no steep sections and it would be hard for lighter riders like Vingegaard and Gaudu to drop him as the impact of drafting is huge on 7-8% gradients.

Neilson Powless spent 2801 kilojoules before the climb and 13.25 kj/kg/h for 3 hours and 12 minutes. Very close to the 3 hours and 3000 kilojoules mark which is a commonly used threshold in training to see how well riders can perform after fatigue.

Tobias Foss did a good effort in pacing up the Col de la Couillole climb for his teammate Jonas Vingegaard. The time-trial world champion managed to set the tempo until 6.4 km to go when Chris Harper attacked as the tempo was too slow and there were still around 15 riders in the bunch.

It was a headwind up Couillole (the red sections are for headwind, purple – cross headwind). This influenced the climbing time and tempo as most of the teams were short on climbing domestiques and it is harder to create separation in a headwind with the increased drafting benefit.

After Harper’s attack, Vingegaard chose to accelerate and close the gap to the Australian and test Pogačar’s legs. The UAE-Emirates star responded with an attack once Vingegaard sat back down, putting the Dane under pressure.

Vingegaard had to close the gap to Pogačar mostly on his own, with Gaudu, Jorgenson, Bardet and Sivakov sitting in his wheel. Eventually all but Gaudu were dropped from the chase group, with the Frenchman eventually pulling with Vingegaard to close the race leader Pogačar.

With 2.3 km to go Gaudu tried to attack as he was only 6 seconds back to Pogačar on GC and did not stand a chance against the Slovene in a straight up sprint. Vingegaard dropped but did not crack like on Loge des Gardes, while Pogačar was standing strong and defended well against attacks. In the final sprint, Pogačar was convincing and won with a 2-second gap over Gaudu and 6 seconds over Vingegaard, aptly defending the yellow jersey.

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

The pace was not too high from the bottom as Foss paced for a long time and there was not a strong team to pace the first 10 kilometres of the climb. 5.86 ᵉw/kg from David Gaudu for 43:54 minutes and 5.85 ᵉw/kg for Vingegaard and Pogačar as there are differences due to drafting. It is still a good effort and above the green Grand Tour Top 10 trendline but slower by 2 minutes and 3 seconds than Richie Porte’s time set in 2017. The pace and time were slower also due to the headwind.

Race Recaps

Pogačar Cracks Vingegaard On First Mountain Top Finish | Paris-Nice Stage 4 2023

byKārlis Ozols

March 8, 2023

3 minute read

3 comments

The phenom Tadej Pogačar can hit almost the same w/kg level in every race throughout the year, with this talent showcased on the La Loge des Gardes mountain top finish in Paris-Nice. The UAE-Emirates superstar responded to Vingegaard’s acceleration with 4.3km to go and later supplied his own big attack which cracked the current Tour de France champion.

Paris-Nice Stage 4 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The 6.8 kilometres at 7% gradient climb suited Pogačar more than the slender Dane as it was in the range of 16-17 minutes and would be ridden at around 25km/h – perfect for the Slovene who has mentioned that in training he mostly does 2 x 15-minute intervals.

Felix Großschartner paced hard at the bottom of the climb with Vingegaard and Pogačar riding behind him. The peloton was stretched out under the high speed after UAE Team Emirates had already paced the lead-in to the climb full gas. The race leader Magnus Cort Nielsen dropped early with Neilson Powless and Jack Haig losing contact with the GC group with 4.7 and 4.4 km to go.

After Großschartner finished his strong pull, Vingegaard accelerated with 4.3 km to go but it was not as easy to go clear as in O Gran Camino, with Pogačar already in the wheel and easily responding to the Dane’s attempt.

They got a 15-second gap over the closest riders but as Vingegaard could not drop Pogačar and the Slovenian would not relay, both stopped pacing and were caught with 3.5 km to go. David Gaudu immediately responded with an acceleration and the lack of organised chase allowed the Frenchman to gain 19 seconds in a kilometre.

Pogačar sensed weakness in Vingegaard and attacked with 2.5 km to go. The Jumbo-Visma GC leader was not ready for it and was trying to close the small gap to Pogačar for a long time – much longer than his response to any attacks in the Tour de France last year. As the speed was high, drafting really mattered and Pogačar with his skinsuit, aero helmet, narrow bars and base layer was fully prepared to stay aero in the shallow penultimate kilometre.

Pogačar catches Gaudu with Vingegaard chasing in the background

Vingegaard completely cracked and lost a huge amount of time in the last 1.5 kilometres, while Pogačar and Gaudu were working together. Pogačar won the stage and beat Vingegaard by 43 seconds, who cracked like the Slovene on the Col du Granon stage in last year’s Tour. UAE-Emirates’ superstar also collected 12 bonus seconds across the stage, meaning his advantage over Vingegaard is now 44 seconds in the GC. Gaudu and Groupama-FDJ had another brilliant day after their great performance in the Stage 3 TTT, with the Frenchman moving into second position only 10 seconds back from Pogačar.

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

Pogačar did an impressive performance on the La Loge des Gardes climb. 24.71 km/h average speed on the 7.12% gradient climb is very strong but there was a huge tailwind (the light blue sections are tailwind, dark blue – cross tailwind).

Kevin Vaquelin spent 3,204 kilojoules for 3:44 hours before the climb, which is 12.6 kj/kg/h. The last hour before the La Loge des Gardes was the hardest which made this a quite challenging stage finale despite it not being the longest finish – significantly harder than the Saudi, Oman and UAE Tour stages before their climbs. The colder conditions always suit Pogačar, who did 6.70 ᵉw/kg for 16:22 min. Our prediction was exactly 16:22 min for the climb in the preview article for climbs but with 6.50 ᵉw/kg because we expected a bigger compact GC group for much more of the climb, with consequently more drafting expected for the winner.

La Loge des Gardes w/kg estimations and times by Naichaca

Pogačar’s normalized power would be much bigger than the estimated average due to his two huge accelerations and the irregular tempo. On the w/kg curve, Pogačar’s 2022 Monte Carpegna performance in Tirreno-Adriatico is practically identical to the La Loge des Gardes effort. The Carpegna stage also was even a little bit harder but with a lower normalised power as Pogačar attacked and rode his tempo on Carpegna on a steeper gradient.

Analysis

The Climbs of Paris Nice and Tirreno Adriatico.

byGabriel Stróżyk

March 7, 2023

10 minute read

2 comments

Paris Nice and Tirreno Adriatico are among the most prestigious One-Week Stage Races, despite taking place at the same time. This usually leads to the top GC riders being split between the two races.

This year, Paris Nice boasts the better quality of overall contenders, including Tour de France champion Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar as the big favourites, as well as Simon Yates and Daniel Felipe Martinez.

Tirreno on the other hand seems to be more of a battle between the second tier of GC riders, with Mas, Landa, Hindley and Pidcock headlining the startlist, while Van Aert and Roglic don’t seem to be concerned with the General Classification this year.

Most of the Giro d’Italia contenders opted for the Volta a Catalunya two weeks later instead, where Evenepoel, Roglic, Ayuso, Vine and Geraint Thomas will face off on three summit finishes.

In this article I will analyse possible strategies, performances and likely outcomes on the climbs of Paris Nice and Tirreno Adriatico, while taking into account the circumstances of the non climbing stages. A similar piece for the Volta a Catalunya will follow in the coming weeks. All watt estimations are calculated using standard values for wind, draft, temperature and etalon weight of 60kg.

Paris Nice

The route of Paris Nice is quite traditional, featuring a pair of flatter stages with crosswind potential, two stages that seem destined for the breakaway specialists, two uphill finishes with differing difficulty and the classic, short but intense medium mountain stage around Nice.

The true relevation of the course is the omission of the usual Individual Time Trial, which is replaced by a 32km Team Time Trial, which should suit the rouleur-heavy squad of Jumbo Visma. This stage will also be a test for a new Team Time Trial rule, which we might see more often in the future. The time of the first rider will count for the stage, compared to that of the 4th rider like previously.

Khalifa Port – United Arab Emirates – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – wielrennen – INEOS Grenadiers pictured during UAE Tour 2023 – 5th Edition – stage 2 TTT from Khalifa Port to Khalifa Port (17,3 km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

This could lead to some different strategies, such as leadout-like racing in the last part of the Team Time Trial, which will be exciting to watch. Nontheless, Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo Visma), Dani Martinez (INEOS) and Simon Yates (Jayco) are favourites to gain a serious advantage in the General Classification on Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates) on this stage.

La Loge des Gardes, Stage 4

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,50ᵉw/kg ~ 16’22min – 24,70km/h – 1760 VAM

The climb to La Loge des Gardes is the first and much easier of the two summit finishes, having a 7,12% average slope for 6,74km. This brand new ascent is not only quite gradual, but also features the easiest sections towards the top of the climb, making it hardly selective. The chances of big gaps are even further minimised if there is a head wind, which could have a massive effect as this climb is not a traditional hairpin climb, and instead travels largely in onedirection.

Despite all of this, some contenders are destined to try to gain back time lost in the Team Time Trial. It will be interesting to see if Pogacar settles for bonus seconds in the sprint or will try to create real gaps on this climb. This might be the most ideal climb in cycling for Pogacar to win the stage, being hard enough to drop any rider faster than him, while offering no opportunity to drop the Slovenian, whose unmatched sprint among GC contenders will make him the clear favourite for the stage win.

No matter the tactics, a small group sprint is by far the most likely outcome for this stage, with a breakaway win also being a possibility. On a climb of similar difficulty, Chiroubles in 2021 Paris Nice, Primoz Roglic managed a solo win by 12 seconds against much weaker competition. However that climb had a serious steep section (1,2km at 10,3%), on which Roglic could get away, which is completely missing from the La Loge des Gardes climb.

Col de Couillole, Stage 7

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,10ᵉw/kg ~ 42’00min – 22,30km/h – 1679 VAM

The Col de Couillole is undoubtedly the hardest climb of this years Paris Nice. Featuring 15,61km at 7,53%, it will take the best riders over 40 minutes to complete and is comparable to the Col de Turini (used in Paris Nice 2019, 2022), being 900 meters longer with a near identical gradient. The stage is only 144km long and the climb features only one kilometre with a gradient over 8%, meaning it will not be easy to gain a lot of time, but an ascent of this length and gradient will definitely lead to some gaps.

In all probability, Jonas Vingegaard will be the best placed contender in the General Classification at this point of the race, with Pogacar further behind than Martinez and Simon Yates after the team time trial. If a scenario like this happens, UAE will have to set up Pogacar to attack on this climb. Wellens, Großschartner, and Novak are his main support in the mountains, who can definitely light up the early slopes, but can probably not hold a high tempo for over 20 minutes. This would suggest that Pogacar will probably attack quite early on the climb to take back time, in a similar fashion to INEOS attacking Roglic on Col de Turini with over 7km to go last year.

Such an attack will likely lead to a situation where multiple GC riders are rolling attacks in a small group, as no team has a supporting cast strong enough to create a pace hard enough to put other contenders on the limit early on the climb. A situation like that is usually worst for the rider best placed in the General Classification, who will be forced to close most of the moves.

If Jonas Vingegaard finds himself in those circumstances, attacking himself to reduce the group further, weaken the rest of the contenders or even go solo, is probably the best move. Considering Vingegaard’s shape displayed in Gran Camiño it is more likely for him to drop all other riders, than for him to be dropped on a climb like this head to head, but multiple other contenders start – stop attacking might make it difficult for him.

It will also be interesting to see what the talented riders who performed well in the early races can show on a long climb like this. Matteo Jorgenson, Skjelmose Jensen, Powless and Vauquelin are definitely among the riders to watch here, who will all be fighting for a top 10 in GC.

Col de la Couillole – France – wielrennen – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – CONTADOR Alberto (ESP) Rider of Trek – Segafredo in front of HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis (COL) Rider of Team SKY and PORTE Richie (AUS) Rider of BMC pictured during stage 7 of Paris – Nice UCI World Tour from Nice – Col de la Couillole, 177.00 km – foto POOLPHOTO BP/Cor Vos © 2017

Breaking the climbing record will be difficult and can only be achieved with a constantly high pace for which one of the contenders will need to go solo early or multiple riders be happy to work together. Jonas Vingegaard and maybe also Tadej Pogacar could definitely break the record if they tried to, but with tactical games on the climb it will be very hard to ride faster than Richie Porte in 2017, who showed one of the best performances of the year, climbing Col de la Couillole in 41’51min, at 6,15ᵉw/kg.

Col de Peille, Stage 8

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,60ᵉw/kg ~ 15’28min – 24,91km/h – 1792 VAM

This climb is probably best known for the exploits of Alberto Contador, who forced serious selections on this rather easy climb of 6,42km at 7,20% multiple times. He also holds the climbing record of 15’48min at 6,67ᵉw/kg, set in 2017. This record is breakable, but only if the contenders race this climb, which is located 50km from the finish, full gas from the bottom.

Nice – France – wielrennen – cycling – radsport – cyclisme – Contador Velasco Alberto (Spain / Team Tinkoff – Tinkov) pictured during the stage 7 of the 74th Paris – Nice cycling race, a stage of 134 kms with start in Nice and finish in Nice, France – photo VK/PN/Cor Vos © 2016

Such a scenario is relatively likely if Pogacar is still over 30s behind the leader in the General Classification. UAE also have a good squad to make these shallow medium mountains quite hard to set up their leader. Despite this, getting away solo here is quite unlikely considering the ability of the other contenders on a climb like this and the large drafting benefit at the high speeds that will be achieved on this climb. The rather mild forecasted temperatures also make a small group more likely than all out chaos on Col de Peille.

Col d’Èze, Stage 8

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,50ᵉw/kg ~ 16’10min – 22,42km/h – 1755 VAM

The Col d’Eze is the last and hardest of five categorized climbs on this final stage around Nice. The parcours of the stage is quite difficult and offers enough opportunities to create time gaps. The most likely moment for a deciding attack is the 1,9km long, 10,7% steep section of the Col d’Eze (6,04km at 7,83%). This stage design suits Pogacar really well, which could lead to a great battle against Vingegaard on this final climb of the race.

Simon Yates and Daniel Felipe Martinez were already contending on this stage last year. Martinez was looking strong before an unfortunate mechanical, while Yates dropped Roglic and would’ve won the General Classification without a heroic Wout Van Aert pulling Roglic to the finish. Yates pushed 6,57ᵉw/kg for 16’51min on that occasion, which was the only ascent of that particular route up Col d’Èze to date. That was certainly a good performance, but to open a similar gap to Vingegaard, even without Van Aert as a security blanket, an even better effort will be needed.

The Dane is much less prone to historic breakdowns on later stage of a stage races than Roglic and posesses an overall climbing ability superior to that of Roglic at any point of the Slovenian’s career. This reality and the 32km Team Time Trial make Jonas Vingegaard the clear favourite to win the General Classification of Paris Nice 2023. Nonetheless, this stage will most likely be the biggest difficulty for Vingegaard, as his three main competitors (Pogacar, S.Yates, Martinez) excel at stages designed like this and rolling attacks can be very effective on these shallow gradients.

Conclusion

The route of this race is nearly perfect for Jonas Vingegaard, as the long Team Time Trial should give him a large buffer on Pogacar before the climbs even start. Considering the strong startlist with three main challengers (Pogacar, S.Yates, Martinez) paired with difficult stages on the final weekend, a victory is not a surefire thing however.

Etoile sur Rhone – France – cycling – Jonas Vingegaard (Denmark / Team Jumbo-Visma) pictured during Drome Classic 2022 – 10th Edition from Etoile sur Rhone to Etoile sur Rhone 191,5 km – Photo: Roberto Bettini/LB/RB/Cor Vos © 2022

Tirreno Adriatico

Unlike in Paris Nice, the Italian stage race does not rely on long climbs, only featuring one climb over 20min in the seven stages. Next to this summit finish on Sassotetto, there will be three sprint stages, two punchy courses and a 11,5km Individual Time Trial on the first day. Looking at this route, there will probably only be three stages that could see serious GC changes. These are the Time Trial at the start of the race, the summit finish on Sassotetto, which will likely make the biggest differences and Stage 6, which features a hilly course around Osimo.

Thymen Arensman, Joao Almeida and Brandon Mcnulty have put themselves in a solid position for GC with the opening time trial, whilst Roglic, Mas, Hindley and Landa have ground to make up. After his victory at Strade Bianche Pidcock lost significant time in the TT as well as one of UAE’s top leaders, Adam Yates.

The hilly stage around Osimo will take place after the summit finish on Sassotetto and will be the last opportunity to create time gaps. The difficulty of the stage can be compared to the famous Castelfidardo stage, which Van der Poel won in 2021, featuring three laps over the combo of Muri di Casto del Borgo, which is a 1,35km ascent at 13,11%, of which around 500 meters are on cobbled roads, and the Osimo climb (1,7km at 5,7%).

Google Streetview: Last meters of Muro di Casto del Borgo climb (cobbled section).

This stage design seems to be made for Pidcock, who excels on short climbs and will have no trouble on the cobbles. The brit will attempt to ride for the General Classification and has a very good chance on this route, especially considering the multiple cards INEOS will be able to play, having Arensman and Geoghegan Hart in the squad as well. Vlasov and Mas have also recently shown great qualities as puncheurs and should be able to go well on this stage.

Sassotetto, Stage 5

ᵉW/KG Prediction: 6,40ᵉw/kg ~ 27’56min – 23,20km/h – 1740 VAM

Sassotetto is a climb of medium difficulty (10,8km at 7,50%), which will be completed in around 28 minutes by the best riders. Simon Yates set the foundation for his Tirreno victory here in 2020, with the climbing record of 27’36min at 6,51ᵉw/kg. He gained 35 seconds on the second best rider with this impressive display and only 12 riders finished within 2 minutes of him.

Sassotetto – Italy – wielrennen – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – Simon Yates (GBR / Team Mitchelton – Scott) pictured during 55th Tirreno-Adriatico 2020 stage 5 from Norcia > Sassotetto (202KM) – photo LB/RB/Cor Vos © 2020

This might make the climb seem very selective, but that stage was over 200km long which added extra difficulty compared to the 168km stage this year. Yates also needed one of his best ever performances to create such a gap. On a very similar climb, Collau Fancuaya (Vuelta 2022), the 12 fastest riders were only separated by 64 seconds, despite a fast ascent. On that climb, Enric Mas pushed 6,34ᵉw/kg for 27’29min, so he can be expected to perform in the same region on this climb as well. Next to him, Adam Yates who performed exceptionally well on Jebel Hafeet should be considered the favourite for this stage.

The most important takeaway from this stage will be the climbing level of Tom Pidcock on efforts longer than 20 minutes. The young brit seems to be attempting a General Classification campaign at the Tour de France later this year. This stage will be the first real indicator of what to expect from Pidcock, who performed well on the short Malhao climb in the Volta ao Algarve and set a high level KOM on Sa Calobra in training.

Conclusion

Considering the route with this very hard Stage 6, my pick to win the General Classification is Tom Pidcock, who is in great shape and will be supported by an elite supporting cast. He will probably be able to limit his losses on Sassotetto and posesses the ability to gain serious time on Stage 6. Other contenders that should be up there are Enric Mas, Mikel Landa and Adam Yates. Roglic could also go well, if he is close to his usual shape, while I am not confident in Jai Hindley this early in the season.

Gabriel Stróżyk (@NaichacaCycling)

Race Previews

Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 Preview | Primož Roglič Is Back

byKārlis Ozols

March 5, 2023

7 minute read

2 comments

Primož Roglič and Wout van Aert will start their 2023 road season in Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jumbo-Visma sending a stacked team. Newly crowned Strade Bianche winner Tom Pidcock, Enric Mas, Adam Yates and many other great GC riders will make this “race of the two seas” exciting .

Provisional Start List

Data powered by FirstCycling.com

Stage 1

The pancake flat and technically easy time-trial is made for a big engine like Filippo Ganna. Wout van Aert, Primož Roglič, Magnus Sheffield and Thymen Arensman might challenge the Italian beast, especially if he has another mid-TT mechanical. If Van Aert wants to fight for overall in Tirreno-Adriatico, Stage 1 is an excellent chance to take an early advantage over Adam Yates, Tom Pidcock, Enric Mas and the other GC contenders.

Stage 2

A sprint stage that includes a 1.3 km at 6% hill in the last 10 kilometres. This definitely will suit Wout van Aert and Jumbo-Visma have brought a good team – Tiesj Benoot, Attila Valter, Dylan van Baarle, Koen Bouwman, Wilco Kelderman and Primož Roglič. Do not be surprised to see Jumbo setting up a strong train for Van Aert and riding full-gas the final climb to make life more difficult for Fabio Jakobsen, Fernando Gaviria, Dylan Groenewegen, Mark Cavendish and other pure sprinters. Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay can get over small hills and suit this stage but positioning going into the climb will be crucial. Jumbo-Visma already shattered the peloton on a 1km climb twice in 2022, Paris-Nice Stage 1 and Tour de France Stage 4, but this time the previous 10 kilometres before the final hill are fairly easy, which means it will be harder to completely destroy the peloton.

Stage 3

A 216.5-kilometre-long stage with a lot of climbing but a flat finale. The stage should be for sprinters but with fatigue in the legs, this will be a harder day than usual in a sprint stage for Jakobsen, Gaviria and Groenewegen. A strong breakaway that forms on the early climbs could make life very difficult for the peloton.

Stage 4

The first day when GC contenders will show their strength. 2503 metres of elevation gain, 217.4 kilometres and three climbs up Tortoreto (3.2 km, 6.9%) in the last hour will be hard. This would be a perfect finish for the 2020 Primož Roglič but it is impossible to know his shape or ambitions for this race and Van Aert is also on the start list. Tom Pidcock, Alexandr Vlasov, Adam Yates and Enric Mas should perform well on this stage. Victory Lafay finished 3rd on a similar finish in last year’s Tirreno behind Pogačar and Vingegaard.

Stage 5

The queen day with 3797 metres of elevation gain and the final climb up Sassotetto (13.1 km, 7.3%). With many hills before Sassotetto, it means the gaps might be even bigger as fatigue will play a big role. In contrast, the route before Prati di Tivo in 2021 was fairly easy and despite Pogačar doing huge watts, 12 riders finished within a minute on a 36-37 minute climb.

The perfect launching point is with 4-5 kilometres to go when the gradients are close to 10%. This will be a good test for Adam Yates, Enric Mas, Primož Roglič, Mikel Landa, Tom Pidcock, Wilco Kelderman and Jai Hindley. Van Aert performed well on Prati di Tivo and with those legs, he should not lose more than a minute if Kelderman and Roglič ride for him. Van Aert likely might be the race leader at this point and it will be curious to see Jumbo’s tactics which hopefully will be better than in Strade Bianche where Valter and Benoot could not sacrifice for each other to close a few-second gap to Pidcock.

In Tirreno-Adriatico 2020 Simon Yates did one of the best climbing performances in his career in preparation for the 2020 Giro. Yates did Sassotetto in 27:36 min with 6.51 ᵉw/kg. It will be hard to beat for the riders this year to beat this record as it is an extremely tough benchmark and would require a team to pace full gas from the base. In 2018 Landa, Majka and Bennett did the climb 2 minutes and 15 seconds slower.

Sassotetto climbing times and w/kg estimations by Naichaca

Stage 6

The final chance for riders to make changes in the GC. A very hard route with 3526 metres of elevation gain across dozens of climbs will be a huge test for everyone. The riders will go up the Muro di Costa del Borgo climb (1.4 km, 12.9%) three times. Pidcock and Mas will look for this stage to take time on the other riders. Jumbo-Visma have brought a perfect team for this day but their tactics and supported leader will depend on the GC standings.

Stage 7

A stage that might end with a breakaway win as everyone will be fatigued from previous days like in the 2021 Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 6, which was won by Mads Würtz Schmidt from a small breakaway. Otherwise, a final chance for the sprinters who have persevered throughout the week.

Contenders

The big question is what will be Primož Roglič’ role in Tirreno. This will be his first race of the season after it was initially thought that the Slovenian would only race Volta a Catalunya in preparation for the Giro d’Italia. Jumbo-Visma sports director Merijn Zeeman in a team statement said that Roglič worked hard and is ready to return to the peloton, however:

“Racing is the next step in the build-up to his goals. He will start without pressure or results in mind.”

Nice – France – cycling – Van Aert Wout (BEL) of Team Jumbo-Visma & Roglic Primoz (SLO) of Team Jumbo-Visma pictured during 80th Paris – Nice (2.UWT) stage 8 between Nice: and Nice(115,6KM) – Photo: Nico Vereecken/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

It is hard to believe Roglič will just participate in Tirreno without ambitions for the overall win. Yes, he has already won this race and is building for the Giro d’Italia but this definitely must be a great chance to test his legs and not sacrifice everything for Van Aert. If Roglič has decided (seemingly) at the last minute to race in Tirreno, he must be in good shape. This reminds me of every time Roglič said he has bad legs before the race/stage and then on the final climb always did huge performances.

Van Aert’s big goal is Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix. The goal of adding Tirreno-Adriatico’s title to his palmares, and the necessary shape and weight to achieve that, is in conflict with those big goals. He must win monuments in Spring, not another World Tour race to improve his legacy. The Belgian did not race in Omloop and Strade Bianche where he won previously. Due to illness, he skipped a few training days in February according to his Strava profile, but, after a small break, Van Aert did 71 hours of riding in 17 days. A huge volume of work in the training camp at Teide after the illness.

Van Aert’s training rides before Tirreno

In 2021 Van Aert finished second in Tirreno behind Pogačar and finished 3rd in Milano-Sanremo and 6th in Ronde van Vlaanderen. Going for the overall title will take a huge load on his body and it is not worth the risk. Jumbo-Visma has sent a stacked team with Roglič and Wilco Kelderman. They can go for the GC with either of those riders. The betting market seems to agree that Roglič is more of a realistic threat for GC than Van Aert, with his odds in the markets dropping from around 6 to 4.5 in the lead up to the race. Van Aert is a Top 5 favourite only behind Vlasov, Yates, Roglič and Mas.

Adam Yates did his career best pure w/kg performance on Jebel Hafeet and is in great shape as he did an altitude camp before the UAE Tour. UAE-Emirates has sent Almeida, McNulty, Covi, Formolo, Bennett and Molano to Tirreno. An impressive supporting squad for the betting favourite Yates who has won one World Tour stage race in Europe, which was the 2021 Volta a Catalunya with INEOS sweeping the podium with Yates, Porte and Thomas. Roglič and Pogačar were not racing in Catalunya which made the job easier. Almeida also might have a good shot at podiuming the race.

Enric Mas has proved he is an elite rider on punchy stages and obviously climbs well on the longer mountains. He should not lose too much time in the short time-trial and showed good legs in Vuelta a Andalucia, losing only to Pogačar on punchy stages. Mas in pre-2022 seasons did not perform well in one-week stage races but it looks like he has changed and is in great shape also earlier in the season. Avoiding crashes is the most important factor for the Mallorquí.

Iznajar – Spain – cycling – Enric Mas (ESP – Movistar Team) – Tadej Pogacar (SLO – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during Vuelta a Andalucia Ruta Ciclista Del Sol (2.Pro) stage 4 between Olvera – Iznajar (164.8 km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Tom Pidcock after his win on Alto do Malhao in Algarve and an impressive solo win in Strade Bianche might have a good shot at winning this race if he goes all-in for it. Pidcock has proved he can climb well on longer climbs and will be a big threat on the hilly GC stages. Mikel Landa, Aleksandr Vlasov, Thymen Arensman, Jai Hindley, Ben O’Connor, Giuolio Ciccone and Santiago Buitrago will be other GC riders to look for.

Predicition

I must admit it is hard to choose between Mas, Roglič and Pidcock. I believe Roglič will fight for overall and will want to test his “bad legs” against WorldTour competition. If I had information that Pidcock on Saturday evening did everything to recover as best as possible after his huge Strade Bianche win I would definitely pick him without any doubts. At the time of writing this preview in betting markets he is the 6th favourite and around @17.00 but his odds should definitely drop. I believe in Pidcock after his Alpe d’Huez and Alto do Malhao wins and Sa Calobra KOM. He is Him. I pick Tom.

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

Siena – Italy – cycling – Thomas Tom Pidcock (GBR / Team Ineos Grenadiers) pictured during 17th Strade Bianche men elite (1.WWT) a one day race between Siena and Siena (184km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Race Previews

Paris-Nice 2023 Preview | Vingegaard vs Pogačar Showdown

byKārlis Ozols

March 4, 2023

6 minute read

4 comments

Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar going head to head this early in the season, after the amazing 2022 Tour de France, is a dream come true for cycling fans. Both the Tour de France champions performed exceptionally well in Spanish races in February, achieving a combined 9 wins in just 9 race days.

Provisional Start List

Data powered by FirstCycling.com

Stage 1

The opening stage will be for sprinters who can get over small hills. A hilly route with 0.5 km at 11.6% and 1.5 km at 4.7% climbs are no joke in the last 21 kilometres. Mads Pedersen and Arnaud De Lie will be favourites as they are both great climbers for fast guys. Lotto-DSTNY and Trek-Segafredo will likely go all-in for their sprint leaders on this day and pace the hills as hard as possible. It will be around 6-8 Celsius but the wind will not be blowing fast and crosswinds should not be forming on Stage 1. Even if Tim Merlier and Sam Bennett do survive the punchy hills, their legs will not be as fresh as De Lie and Pedersen at the finish. Alexandre Kristoff, Olav Kooij, Arnaud Demare, Kaden Groves, Jonathan Milan and Bryan Coquard are other strong sprinters on the start list.

Stage 2

The flattest stage of Paris-Nice. Tim Merlier might be the favourite to win as Soudal Quick-Step has sent a strong team for flat stages with Lampaert, Schmid, Asgreen, Declercq, Cavagna and Senechal. The Belgian champion won two sprint stages in the UAE Tour against probably the strongest sprinters line-up in a World Tour race and if there are crosswinds, the Wolfpack will make sure to take advantage of them.

Stage 3 TTT

The 32-kilometre team time trial is a perfect gift for Jumbo-Visma and Jonas Vingegaard. The Dutch team in the provisional start list have listed some strong ITT specialists, such as Rohan Dennis, Jan Tratnik, Edoardo Affini and the reigning World ITT Champion Tobias Foss. Jumbo-Visma might gain over a minute against many teams, including even Pogačar and UAE-Team Emirates. It is a pancake flat route and will suit more teams with bigger riders like Jumbo-Visma and Quick Step.

The curiosity of this TTT is that the organisers decided that the team’s time will be taken from the fastest rider. Usually the clock stops after the fourth rider but these new rules might make the racing more interesting and we could see some different tactics on display across the teams. Of particular interest is how teams with strong GC contenders but also strong TT squads, such as Jumbo-Visma, Jayco AlUla (Simon Yates) and INEOS (Dani Martinez), approach this TTT.

Paris-Nice 2023 Stage 3 TTT profile by La Flamme Rouge

Stage 4

The first mountain stage with a finish of 6.8 km at 7.0% gradient. The stage before La Loge Des Gardes will not be particularly hard and with low kilojoules the gaps might not be big. It is a good climb for Tadej Pogačar who will definitely try to gain at least 10 bonus seconds at the finish line and attack to test Jonas Vingegaard who performed exceptionally well on 7% climbs in O Gran Camiño a week ago.

Stage 5

This might be the first breakaway stage. The climbs at the start will be perfect for the formation of a strong break and it seems like the perfect opportunity for a specialist like Magnus Cort. Arnaud De Lie, Michael Matthews, Fred Wright and Mads Pedersen type sprinters might even want to get into the break rather than have their teams control for 213km, as they can definitely climb fast up short and shallow 4.7% and 4.8% climbs in the final 65km.

Stage 6

Possibly another stage for a breakaway. A Lennard Kämna style day but the German will be racing Tirreno-Adriatico – perhaps Thomas de Gendt will try on this stage. The 2 km at 9.7% with 30km remaining might be hard enough to see attacks from Pogačar and other GC riders but as the last 21 kilometres are going down a shallow descent everyone might be saving their legs for the Queen stage on following day.

Stage 7

Every climber will be waiting for the Col de la Couillole (15.8 km, 7.3%) climb. With a fairly easy parcours and only 127.8 kilometres before it, we might see a huge watts on this giant.

There are no steep sections on Couillole and it is remarkably regular with the 1 kilometre segments varying from 6.5 to 8.4% gradients. Jumbo-Visma has not sent a strong climbing team but Jonas Vingegaard with his O Gran Camiño legs probably will not need it. If Pogačar is behind on GC after the TTT then he definitely will try and attack with UAE-Emirates sending this climb full-gas as they have Tim Wellens, Domen Novak, Mikkel Bjerg and Felix Großschartner. Simon Yates and Dani Martinez both performed well on Col de Turini last year in Paris-Nice, losing only to Roglič on the long climb at the end after the Slovenian burned them with his trademark acceleration close to the finish. Matteo Jorgenson and Jack Haig who are both tall steady climbers will love this climb.

The climbing record is owned by Richie Porte who set it in Paris-Nice 2017, beating Alberto Contador by 21 seconds. 6.15 ᵉW/Kg for 41:51 min is a strong effort but with Pogačar and Vingegaard on the start list in good shape, if the pace will be even moderate then the record should fall.

Col de la Couillole w/kg estimations and times by Naichaca

Stage 8

Paris-Nice will end with a very short but intensive final day. For the second year in a row Col d’Eze (6.1 km, 7.6%) will be used from the same side with a 2km 10.7% wall around 20km to go.

In 2022 Jumbo-Visma for no reason decided to pace very hard on Stage 8 which created a leading five-man group with Roglič, Van Aert, S. Yates, Quintana and Martinez (who later punctured and dropped out of the first group). Yates on the the steep section of Col d’Eze accelerated and soloed to a victory, while Roglič was saved by Van Aert’s draft on the shallow downhill to Nice. More about this stage here.

Simon Yates drops Roglič on Col’d Eze in Paris-Nice 2022

There is a good chance of rain in Nice and the later stages. Pogačar excels in wet or cold conditions as he showed in the Queen stage of Tirreno Adriatico. Apart from Jan Tratnik, Vingegaard’s squad is not well suited to defending on this stage, unless Foss has improved since the Tour of Algarve. Vingegaard may have no teammates in the final but it will be a hard task for Pogačar to drop the Dane, as we saw in the final week of the 2022 Tour de France.

Contenders

When the GC markets opened Vingegaard was favoured over Pogačar but the public seem to disagree, as the odds have moved in favour of the Slovene. Pogačar might gain more bonus seconds than Vingegaard but it will be hard to gain real time in the mountains as they both will arrive in great shape for March. In contrast, Vingegaard has a good team for any crosswinds and Jumbo-Visma are expected to dominate the 32 km TTT, for which UAE-Emirates has not sent a very strong squad.

Pogačar won three stages and GC in Vuelta a Andalucia and opened his season with a long solo win in Jaen Paraiso Interior. Meanwhile, Vingegaard dominated against a weaker GC field in O Gran Camiño, destroying everyone on short climbs and in the time-trial. Pogačar’s performance on Despiernacaballos in Andalucia was not that high on the w/kg curve as they had spent 4000 kilojoules before the decisive climb and the climb was still far from the finish. Vingegaard in Galicia did two huge climbing efforts both on shorter climbs, proving that he can push high watts in colder conditions even in February (albeit after easier stages than occurred in Andalucia). If the Dane arrives with these legs, it will be extremely difficult to drop him on such steady climbs where drafting is a huge advantage – this is why an incumbent GC lead from the TTT is so important for the latter half of the race. Even Pogačar’s Prati di Tivo level is not going to do the job.

Features

UAE and Jumbo fight for Top Spot whilst De Lie Boosts Lotto | UCI Ranking Analysis

byRaúl Banqueri

February 28, 2023

7 minute read

2 comments

The opening weekend has closed a very intense month of competition. Although some still think that the season starts at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the reality is that the entirety of February is one of the busiest months of competition. In this article, we will try to analyse the initial trends among the teams, separating those that will fight to win the 2023 UCI ranking and those that have started less strongly.

As a reminder, the UCI modified its scoring system less than a month before the start of the season. We already produced an in-depth analysis in this article, but the two most important points are the following:

The UCI points scale gives much more importance to Grand Tours and Monuments, as well as to stages in WorldTour stage races.
The UCI World Ranking for teams, both annually and across the triennium, will take into account the 20 best riders of each team, instead of 10 as last season.

You can download the new points scale in high resolution through this link.

2023 Ranking

After February, UAE Team Emirates has emerged as the top team in the rankings. Jumbo-Visma won last season’s ranking, but the fact that the UCI counts the points of the top 20 riders per team (instead of 10) gives UAE a competitive advantage this season. The UAE team always covers a very extensive calendar and tries to give opportunities to all of its riders. Thus, UAE’s general manager, Joxean Fernández Matxín, has set as an important goal for 2023 to win the team ranking for the first time, as he told Mundo Deportivo.

Presumably, Jumbo-Visma will again be the main rival of Matxin’s team, with Ineos and Soudal-QuickStep a step below. Ineos has lost Carapaz, Adam Yates and Van Baarle, while Soudal-QuickStep’s classics block is becoming less and less powerful even if Evenepoel is scoring plenty of GC points. Intermarché – Circus – Wanty is also closely following UAE at the moment after an impressive start to the season, but it is unlikely to be able to keep up with their well-funded roster of stars, especially in the stage races.

As you can see in the table above, the approaches of UAE and Jumbo are completely different. Jumbo is the WorldTeam that has competed the least in 2023, while UAE has already participated in 21 races, three times as many as Jumbo. Therefore, Jumbo must perform at the highest level in the races they participate in to overtake UAE in the ranking, as they did in the opening weekend. The current difference of more than 1200 points in favour of UAE is not insignificant, but there is almost the whole season left. In 2022, UAE was more than 1300 points ahead of Jumbo after February and the Dutch team finished the season ahead.

In the 2022 data comparison, we see how UAE riders competed almost 8 days more on average than Jumbo riders. This is explained by Jumbo’s greater focus on training camps rather than competitions as well as UAE’s total participation in the Italian and Spanish local calendars. These are also the main reasons why UAE scored almost 1000 points more than Jumbo with the 11th to 20th riders of both teams. Those points were not counted in the 2022 ranking, but could be determinative of the ranking winner from this season onwards.

2024 Wildcards

The ProTeams will fight to win their own ranking, which gives access to wildcards for the following year’s WorldTour races. The top two ProTeams will have guaranteed wildcards for the entire WorldTour, including the Grand Tours, and the third will have guaranteed invitations to the one-day races. Finishing in the top two teams is a privilege, as you have the right to participate in the entire WorldTour, being able to refuse races you are not interested in. This annual pressure may favour them in the triennium ranking over the current WorldTeams, which will probably not focus as much on points, at least during the first half of the triennium.

At the moment, the two relegated teams, Lotto Dstny and Israel – Premier Tech, are in the lead in this classification with a solid advantage. Lotto has a guarantee of success with Arnaud De Lie, who is already the third rider with the most UCI points (657) so far this season. His points alone and a more regular level of Caleb Ewan in the sprints are enough for them to be the top favorites for the wildcards of 2024. After the UCI decided to count the points of the top 20 riders in each team, Lotto has promoted Alec Segaert and Jarne Van De Paar from its development team, with the aim of having more riders contributing points. The Belgian team is also playing the points game in calendar planning, turning down the Giro wildcard to focus on smaller but more profitable races.

Israel will be able to enjoy the signing of Dylan Teuns. However, the team has an aging roster and it is likely that several of its leaders (Woods, Fuglsang, Nizzolo and Vanmarcke) will reduce their sporting level. Despite his age, their best rider of 2023 is Simon Clarke (36), podium finisher in the Australian nationals, Cadel Evans and Vuelta a Murcia. The team has enough budget to get the wildcards and return to the WorldTour, but they will have to improve their planning and performance to do so.

Santiago de la Espada – Spain – cycling – Dylan Teuns (BEL – Israel – Premier Tech) pictured during Vuelta a Andalucia Ruta Ciclista Del Sol 2023 – 69th Edition – stage 1 between Puente de Genave and Santiago de la Espada 1(79 km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

TotalEnergies and Uno-X are the other two teams in clear contention for the wildcards, although less likely than Lotto and Israel. Both teams have been hurt by the change in the scoring system, as they tend to get more points on the continental calendar and don’t have the squad depth of the WorldTeams. Uno-X will be quite dependent on Alexander Kristoff’s performance, while for TotalEnergies it will be key to recover a good version of Peter Sagan in his last season in WorldTour cycling.

These four ProTeams (Lotto, Israel, TotalEnergies and Uno-X) will want several WorldTeams to underperform in order to increase their chances of promotion. It is possible that by the end of 2025 we may see no promotion at all, we may see only one team promoted or we may even see four. Below, we will analyze which teams are most likely to be relegated at the end of 2025.

Relegation Battle

This new cycle of the relegation battle will take into account the cumulative ranking from 2023 to 2025. At the moment, Astana Qazaqstan Team and Alpecin-Deceuninck are in relegation places, but the ranking is still not very representative as we are only around 5% into the new triennium. Alpecin is the only WorldTeam yet to win in 2023, but will gain a lot of positions in the classics season with the presence of Mathieu van der Poel. However, it is not a good sign that Astana are already so far behind the rest of the WorldTeams after having been the worst last season as well. On the other hand, Movistar and EF Education-EasyPost, which struggled to stay in the WorldTour last year, have started very strongly and the feeling is that they will have a less stressful three years than the end of the last triennium.

In my opinion, Astana Qazaqstan Team is the number 1 favourite to lose its WorldTour license at the end of 2025. In recent years, the team has had numerous financial and organisational problems, which led to the exit of sponsor Premier Tech. Consequently, it is a team with enormous difficulties in attracting talent and the retirement of Nibali and termination of Lopez contracts (top scorers in 2022) will not have helped. Obviously the addition of Cavendish is great news for Astana, but it is unknown whether the Manxman will be able to maintain a good level until 2025 or even stay with the team for the next few seasons. Even if Cavendish does win a Tour de France stage and a few other sprints, these points alone will not be enough to boost the team into the top 18.

If Astana was the worst WorldTeam in 2022, Team DSM was second from the bottom. It is worrying that they are currently 18th in the ranking, despite having performed relatively well for the potential of their squad in terms of early season victories.

San Juan – Argentina – cycling – Sam Welsford (AUS / Team DSM) – Fabio Jakobsen (NED / Team Soudal – Quick Step)pictured during Vuelta a San Juan 2023 – 40th Edition – stage 7 – San Juan to San Juan (112km) – Photo: Ilario Biondi/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

The Dutch team has again lost two of its stars, Thymen Arensman and Søren Kragh Andersen, so they will depend on how they evolve their talent and if they can keep them. For the moment, Sam Welsford and Marius Mayrhofer have been two of the revelation riders of the season.

Jayco Alula was another team that found itself dragged into the fight to stay in the WorldTour last year. The Australians have the same weaknesses as last year: they have 3 very good leaders (Simon Yates, Groenewegen and Matthews), but they lack squad depth. Fortunately for them, this triennium they will be able to count on the points of the Australian calendar, which they have already used well this January with Matthews and Yates. The graph below shows how Jayco has scored over 900 points in the WorldTour with its three leaders, while scoring hardly any points in the continental races.

Finally, the French teams Arkéa – Samsic, Cofidis and even Ag2r Citroën will surely be affected by the change in the UCI scoring system. As you can see in the chart, these teams get much of their points from the extensive continental calendar, which will now be less valuable in terms of UCI points. In any case, Ag2r Citroën has a big budget and should improve their roster when they release Van Avermaet’s high salary at the end of 2023.

The WorldTour races really kick off in earnest next month, including Strade Bianche, Paris-Nice, Tirreno Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya and the majority of the cobbled classics. We will return at the end of March with another update on the UCI ranking and the trajectory of the teams.

Race Recaps

Evenepoel and Yates Obliterate Hafeet Record | UAE Tour 2023 Stage 7

byKārlis Ozols

February 26, 2023

3 minute read

3 comments

The Queen stage of the 2023 UAE Tour did not disappoint, with Remco Evenepoel and Adam Yates pushing huge watts on Jebel Hafeet and setting a new climbing record into a headwind.

UAE Tour 2023 Stage 7 profile by La Flamme Rouge

As usual, the Jebel Hafeet stage is perfect for high w/kg performances in February as the route before it is pancake flat and typically not raced very hard. Rein Taaramäe spent 2000 kilojoules for the 3+ hours before Hafeet which is less than 10 kJ/kg/h. A very easy tempo, which you will rarely see in European stage races, which allows riders to better manage the hot conditions than they would otherwise if the racing was harder throughout the day.

UAE-Emirates and Soudal Quick-Step paced as hard as possible at the bottom of the climb – perfect for a fast time. There was a decent headwind blowing down the climb as the wind map shows below. The red sections are a headwind, the purple – cross headwind/crosswind, the dark blue – crosswind/cross tailwind and the light blue – tailwind.

After Brandon McNulty finished pulling for Adam Richard Yates, the Briton attacked on the steep section of Jebel Hafeet with 6.2 km to go. Only Remco Evenepoel and Sepp Kuss could respond to the strong acceleration. Evenepoel, despite leading the GC by 74 seconds again Yates, decided to set a hard tempo 400 metres later after Yates could not drop the World Champion.

Adam Richard Yates attacks after McNulty finished his pull

Evenepoel already showed multiple times in the 2022 races, such as in the Vuelta a España, that he feels most comfortable riding his own tempo to prevent attacks. This is great for high watts as the tempo is steady, with no slowing down, and other strong riders such as Yates can benefit from the draft in Evenepoel’s wheel.

Jebel Hafeet – United Arab Emirates – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – wielrennen – Remco Evenepoel (BEL – Soudal – Quick Step) – Adam Yates (GBR – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during UAE Tour 2023 – 5th Edition – stage 7 from Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium to Jebel Hafeet (153km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Evenepoel’s tempo was too high for Kuss who dropped but it was perfect for Yates. The UAE-Emirates rider could save some energy, while the race leader was pulling hard in the headwind. A reversal of the position he has found himself in on Hafeet against Pogačar in the last two years, where the Slovenian would sit in his wheel. With 3 km to go Yates attacked in a steep corner from behind, distancing Evenepoel but could generate a big enough gap to have a realistic chance at the overall win.

It was Yates’ second win on Jebel Hafeet after losing twice in a row in the previous two editions to his now teammate Tadej Pogačar. Evenepoel in the end lost only 10 seconds and won overall by 59 seconds over Lucas Plapp. Yates was 3rd in the GC as he lost most of the time to Evenepoel and Plapp in Stage 1 due to crosswinds and in the team time-trial.

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

Adam Yates also set a new climbing record, beating Pogačar’s time by 11 seconds. As mentioned previously, there was a decent headwind up the climb which only increased ᵉW/Kg in our calculations. Evenepoel did 6.78 ᵉW/Kg, which was 0.06 ᵉW/Kg more than what Yates did as the Belgian paced for multiple kilometres with the Briton sitting in the draft. Both performances are huge but the climbing conditions were ideal except for the desert heat – altitude, ease of stage and pacing were all perfect.

Jebel Hafeet climbing times and w/kg calculations by Naichaca

The climbing performance by Remco Evenepoel was very impressive by pure ᵉW/Kg standards, as the World Champion almost reached the pink Top 25 All-Time trend-line, meaning this was probably one of the Top 10 greatest ᵉW/Kg performances in the 21st century if fatigue and other conditions are ignored. Most of the great w/kg performances in cycling history happened in the mid-90s. Evenepoel would have had to push around 6.85 ᵉW/Kg for 26 minutes to hit the trend-line. Our calculations are normalised for 60 kg climbers, which is explained more in the article here.