Tadej Pogačar dominated the final mountain stage of the 2024 Giro d’Italia with a huge performance on Monte Grappa, winning his sixth stage of the race.
Two ascents of Monte Grappa (18.1 km, 8.1%) made Stage 20 very difficult and a good chance for Pogačar to win his sixth Giro d’Italia stage. Nairo Quintana in the 2014 Giro did Monte Grappa in 52:39 min, pushing 6.23 ᵉW/Kg, which might be one of the greatest time-trial performances in the Sky era. Quintana’s time was impressive, as Lorenzo Fortunato lost 6 minutes to his time in the 2021 Adriatica Ionica race.
Thymen Arensman spent 3,507 kilojoules for 3:29h before the second ascent of Monte Grappa, which is 14.02 kj/kg/h – a good intensity before the final climb. There was no chance for a breakaway win on the Grappa stage as the peloton was always close to Giulio Pellizzari’s group. The 20-year-old Italian was the strongest rider ahead but Pogačar caught him on the second ascent of Monte Grappa. The Slovenian attacked 38 minutes into the climb and gained a big gap over the other GC riders.
Pogačar pushed 6.19 ᵉW/Kg for 51:42 min and was 57 seconds faster than Quintana in the 2014 time-trial on the same segment but in the 2014 Giro the Monte Grappa top was 500 metres further into the climb. Pogačar’s stage 15 performance overall might have been more impressive at a high altitude and after 4,000+ kilojoules, but no doubt that his Monte Grappa performance is also one of the greatest he has had.
Tiberi, Martinez and Rubio lost 1:57 to Pogačar on Grappa, averaging 5.91 - 5.92 ᵉW/Kg. Valentin Paret-Peintre, Thomas, O'Connor and Storer with 5.88 ᵉW/Kg lost 15 seconds more but in the end, they finished together as the GC riders were always close on climbs in this Giro except Pogačar.
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Two things:
1) first how is it possible that Quintana pushed higher watts when he was almost one minute (!!) slower on the same segment, I know that in the TT he had no draft for the all climb, but draft is not that relevant on those gradients, and also Pogacar was alone for almost one third of the climb
2) with all the due respect for what Ulissi did in Prati di Tivo it’s not very credible to have those two performances on the same trendline, there must be something wrong in those calculations
Finally and most importantly, Pogacar had a vam higher than 1700, that is quite higher than the performances you have listed in the top 30 all time and that are of similar length, I know that Grappa is quite suited to have an high vam but so are the climbs in the top 30 that last approximately 50 minutes. On col de la madelaine (19,3 km at 7,9% so similar length and gradients to Grappa) Ullrich had a vam of 1732 for 52:44 min , Pogacar had a VAM of 1720 on a very similar climb, I can’t see wind conditions and draft explaining a difference of 0,31 w/kg (your calculations). 0,31 w/kg is a huge difference, according to your calculations, Tiberi was only 0,27 w/kg worse than Pogacar and lost 2 minutes!!! so you are saying that the difference between Ulrich and pogacar performances would be more than 2 minutes!!! And again the two climbs are very similar, their VAM is close, so those two minutes should be explained by other factors like wind, draft… sorry but i don’t see it at all!
Your first question – early on in the article they said that for Quintana’s 2014 Monte Grappa performance the climb finished 500m further up the ride, which would account for most, if not all, of the 57s time difference.
1) drafting is very important even on a 8% gradient. they go really fast not like amateurs and drafting makes huge difference. Pogačar was faster than Quintana on the exact segment for 57 seconds with less e w/kg.
2) Ulissi performance and e wkg is definitely surprising but he beat even Pogačar’s 2021 time and was pulling a lot. Iirc there was not tailwind even
3) VAM isn’t a serious metric
VAM is a serious metric as it accounts for the gravitational part of the work output. It’s the real part of the performance where W/kg are relevant (as rolling res is relatively low at 15-25kph). The rest is mostly drag where a heavier rider is always gonna have an advantage at low speed with their higher absolute power (not at high speed where W/CdA matters more, Remco docet).
The problem with your calculation, as always, is that your friend measures the climb like fuck knows how. Or does he? You can’t trust official data or LaFlammeRouge
I do not know exactly how the calculation is done, but w/kg is also not proportional to VAM even if we consider gravity forces only. Indeed, a lighter rider needs to push slightly more W/kg than a heavier one at same VAM. This is because the ratio bike weight / rider weight matters !
Perhaps the calculation is done assuming an inaccurate weight of the riders.
focus only on this:
– Ulrich, Col de la Madeilene, 19,3 km at 7,89%, VAM 1732 for 52:44 minutes, 6,5 w/kg (your estimate)
– Pogacar, Monte Grappa, 18,1 km 8,19%, VAM 1720 for 51:42, 6,19 w/kg
– Tiberi, Monte Grappa, 0,27 w/kg worse than Pogacar, lost 1:57 min to Pogacar
Pogacar was 0,31 w/kg worse than Ullrich, so since the two climbs are similar, and last basically the same (52 min), and Tiberi lost 1:57, Pogacar would have lost more than two minutes to Ullrich!! Please could you explain how is it possible to have a difference of 0,31w/kg?
Put differently to be 0,31 w/kg better Pogacar should have gone approx. 2 minutes faster (I’m aware these are just approximations). So he should have climbed Grappa in 49:40, with a VAM of 1790!!! that VAM would be way way higher than those of the top 30 performances of similar length and would be even higher than Ivan Basso on Bondone (that was also on a shorter effort but again on a similar climb). Basso performance is listed at 6,62 w/kg!!!