The classics season has tightened the WorldTour relegation battle. In this last month, Arkéa (19th in the ranking) and DSM (18th in the ranking) have started to achieve good results and the teams ahead of them, such as Cofidis, Movistar or Intermarché have seen their advantage over the relegation zone greatly reduced. On another level, Decathlon Ag2r (18th in 2023) has managed to escape from danger with numerous prestigious victories.

2023-2025 UCI Ranking

As you can see in the graph, Decathlon and Israel have moved up positions since our analysis last month, while Intermarché and Movistar have lost those positions and are closer to the relegation zone. Meanwhile, Astana remains in a dire situation, deep in the relegation zone. Despite having improved their results with the victories of Lutsenko in Il Giro d’Abruzzo and Kanter in the Tour of Türkiye, the great performances of DSM in Liège – Bastogne – Liège (2nd with Bardet) and the Tour of Türkiye (victory in the GC plus 5 stages) mean that they are further than ever from salvation.

While Decathlon can now virtually forget about the danger of relegation, Israel still does not have a reassuring margin, although Stephen Williams’ victory at La Flèche Wallonne still increases the chances of the Israeli team returning to the WorldTour at the end of the 2025 season. However, the points scored by sensation Joseph Blackmore (508 UCI points in 2024) in races such as La Flèche Brabançonne have added up for the Israel development team and not the ProTeam, as he is contracted to the development team until the end of 2024 and the ProTeam already has the maximum of 30 riders for this season.

One team that is making good use of its development team is Arkéa, which is taking advantage of it to cover more calendar and have broader opportunities to score UCI points. Arkéa have used riders from their development team in 32 of the 42 ProSeries or .1 races they have participated in so far in 2024. For example, in O Gran Camiño (2.1), they competed with 4 development team riders and only 2 WorldTeam riders. In other races such as La Roue Tourangelle (1.1), the Classic Loire Atlantique (1.1), the Paris - Camembert (1.1) or the Tour du Doubs (1.1) they competed with 3 riders from the development team. In this case, no Arkéa Continentale rider has scored a significant amount of UCI points, but they act as domestique riders for the WorldTeam riders to score points.

Thanks to the large number of racedays and the second places of Luca Mozzato in Ronde van Vlaanderen and Kévin Vauquelin in La Flèche Wallonne, Arkéa has managed to reduce its deficit to just over 1,000 UCI points compared to DSM and Cofidis. Moreover, most of its best riders, such as Démare, Vauquelin, Mozzato, Champoussin or Capiot, are under contract in 2025, so they will be able to continue scoring UCI points until the end of the WorldTour licence cycle. Arkéa's comeback is compressing the lower part of the ranking and making rivals like Movistar nervous, where Alejandro Valverde recently declared that "we are back with the fucking points".

2024 Ranking

Apart from UAE almost doubling the points of the second placed team, in the ranking of only the 2024 season we can see that Intermarché, Movistar, Cofidis and Astana are the WorldTeams that are suffering the most this season. Those four teams are the ones that are worsening their situation in the relegation battle. In the following graph, you can see how Intermarché, Movistar and Cofidis have achieved much worse results at the start of 2024 compared to the start of 2023.

Regarding Movistar, the Spanish team has suffered several injuries and especially Nairo Quintana has not yet been able to compete in top shape. In addition, they have not been able to translate the good form of Lazkano and García Cortina into outstanding results in the classics. Enric Mas set himself the Tour de Romandie as a goal (without the big dominators in attendance) and he has not been able to shine either, finishing sixth in the GC. It should be noted that Matteo Jorgenson was their top scorer in 2023 and this season he is at Visma where he is their leading scorer with over 1,000 UCI points.

Cofidis remains the only WorldTeam without a win in 2024, but at least they have received the good news that sponsor Cofidis has renewed its sponsorship until 2028. Intermarché, for its part, had Louis Meintjes' victory in the semi-neutralised Basque Country stage, but the UCI has decided to cancel the UCI points from that stage. This spring, the Belgian team has suffered injuries to Gerben Thijssen, Arne Marit, Simone Petilli and Boy Van Poppel, while Taco van der Hoorn has still not returned to competition since suffering a concussion at the 2023 Ronde van Vlaanderen. Intermarché hopes to reverse this negative trend with Biniam Girmay at the Giro d'Italia.

In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 22 teams aiming for WorldTour licenses.

2025 Wildcards

As for the fight for the 2025 WorldTour wildcards, Lotto and Israel continue to increase their lead in the top two positions. Lotto is being boosted especially by Maxim Van Gils (top5 in Flèche and Liège), who is the sixth cyclist with the most UCI points so far in the 2024 season. In the fight for the third position, which gives access to the WorldTour one-day races, Uno-X has moved up to third, overtaking Tudor, while TotalEnergies is also in the fight.

Finally, Corratec Vini Fantini remains outside the top 40 of the overall team ranking and would not be able to apply for a Giro d´Italia wildcard in 2025. Euskaltel-Euskadi and TDT-Unibet have managed to break into the top 40, but remain on the edge and will need to keep scoring points to be eligible for an wildcard to the Grand Tours in 2025.

The Tour de Romandie queen stage was a day for the diesel riders who perform after huge fatigue. After a tough crash in the 2023 Tour de France opening stage it was the first win at a World Tour level for Richard Carapaz in an EF jersey. The Ecuadorian has previously proved himself on hard days and in Tour de Romandie stage 4 outperformed big names like Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates, Jai Hindley and Carlos Rodriguez, the latter of whom became the new GC leader.

It was the last mountain stage and the only remaining opportunity for the many GC riders within the Top 10 to make a difference. INEOS brought a stacked team to the race with E. Hayter, Arensman, Bernal, Castroviejo, O. Rodriguez and Sheffield but only Carlos Rodriguez had a real shot to win the GC as he started the day only 11 seconds behind the race leader Juan Ayuso.

It was one of the hardest races possible in only a 150km long stage, with Pavel Sivakov burning 3,758 kilojoules before the final climb. The intensity of 15.48 kj/kg/h for 3:30h meant that it was a really hard day, which made the gaps on Leysin (13.8 km, 6%) much bigger than expected despite it not being a particularly difficult climb. On the first climb of the day Ovronnaz (9.1 km, 9.5%) the best GC riders did it in 29:35 min, averaging 6.09 ᵉW/Kg, making the race extremely hard from the start. There was no footage, but on the Strava segment Ilan van Wilder and Lenny Martinez had a 30-second gap on Ovronnaz against Sivakov and Arensman. There must have been attacks from the GC riders to try and bridge to the breakaway.

The later climbs Les Rives and Les Gettes were paced at 5.7 ᵉW/Kg for 12 minutes each, adding more fatigue. The race was decided on Leysin which is irregular. Only the last 3 kilometres are hard enough to attack from the GC group and gain some time.

INEOS went all in on Leysin for Rodriguez with Castroviejo, Hayter, Arensman and Bernal shredding the tired GC group. The last breakaway survivor Clement Berthet was caught with 5.4 km to go and even a big-name rider like Jai Hindley was dropped on shallow gradients. It was a true test of fatigue as Florian Lipowitz with 3 km to go accelerated and distanced the race leader Ayuso. The 23-year-old German extended his contract with Bora-Hansgrohe a few days ago and is flying in Romandie.

Lipowitz, Carapaz and Rodriguez were together as the strongest climbers. Carapaz and Rodriguez in previous years have shown the ability to perform on hard stages, despite not having as high peak watts as other GC riders who were dropped today. Rodriguez won the 2023 Tour de France Stage 14 from a GC group where 12th place finisher Tom Pidcock lost 8:40 min, showing that the Spaniard performs well on tough days. In the end Carapaz attacked and looked set for an easy stage win but was almost caught in the last meters by Lipowitz, who waited for a long time in the wheel of Rodriguez, presumably asking for the green light to attack with teammate Vlasov just behind. Rodriguez lost 10 seconds but thanks to his results in the time trial and prologue became the new race leader, with Vlasov missing out on bonus seconds on Stage 2 and today.

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It was not a high ᵉW/Kg final climb due to the fatigue and the shallow / irregular nature of the climb. Carapaz averaged on Leysin 5.91 ᵉW/Kg for 30:23 min but in the steepest part (3.05 km, 8.30%) from 4.5 to 1.5 km to go he did 6.63 ᵉW/Kg for 8:10 min. Lipowitz and Rodriguez averaged 6.50 ᵉW/Kg in this segment while A. Yates and Ayuso who cracked did only 6.06 ᵉW/Kg.

After a cold and wet day, Juan Pedro Lopez won after attacking with Giulio Pellizzari in Tour of the Alps stage 3, while INEOS’ GC leader Tobias Foss could not bring back the brave duo.

The Tour of the Alps parcours in the 2024 edition includes five days with climbs but none with a mountain top finish, which gives more opportunity for long range attacks, tactics, and low ᵉW/Kg performances. Lining up from the Top 10 betting favourites for the Giro d’Italia are Bardet, Tiberi, Thomas and O’Connor. Pogačar and Uijtdebroeks did Volta a Catalunya a month ago and are not doing any more stage races before Giro, while Caruso, Arensman and Ciccone will test their legs in the upcoming Tour de Romandie. Dani Martinez’ last race due was Tirreno-Adriatico, due to a knee problem.

With two loops with back to back Weerberg (3.2 km, 9.6%) and Pillberg (3.2 km, 10%) climbs, it was going to be a hard stage. Thanks to his Stage 1 victory from the first group, Tobias Foss was in the leader’s jersey, which he needed to defend.

On the first Pillberg ascent Romain Bardet attacked with 27km to go but was caught. Later on the climb, 20-year-old Giulio Pellizzari attacked and was joined by Juan Pedro Lopez. They both did only 6.15 ᵉW/Kg for 11:13 min, while the peloton lost 23 seconds with 5.90 ᵉW/Kg as Foss needed to bring them back but did not go too hard as there was a valley and two steep climbs still left in the stage.

Geraint Thomas paced the valley but did not catch the duo, who increased their lead to over 50 seconds before the final two climbs. With no help, Foss did 6.18 ᵉW/Kg for 11:15 min, while Pellizzari and Lopez lost 10 seconds with 6.10 ᵉW/Kg but had a 40-second lead at the top.

Anton Palzer before the final Pillberg ascent had spent 2,870 kilojoules for exactly 3 hours, which is 14.73 kj/kg/h. It was a high intensity race with cold and wet conditions, with temperatures on bike computers averaging 2°C in the last 30 km.

Juan Pedro Lopez was flying on the final climb and dropped Pellizzari, doing 6.43 ᵉW/Kg for 10:54 min. Pellizzari cracked and lost 38 seconds, doing 6.05 ᵉW/Kg. In the peloton Foss again was forced to pace and did 6.33 ᵉW/Kg for 11:01 min, but that was not enough to catch both attackers. Wout Poels attacked from the GC group but Foss pulled him back with his steady pace. If such a day occurs in the Giro, Tadej Pogačar would likely win with a huge solo and multiple minute lead over the struggling group of Giro GC hopefuls.

After being outsprinted by Victor Lafay in the previous edition of Classic Grand Besançon Doubs, Lenny Martinez returned stronger in the 2024 edition, beating Victor Langelotti in the final metres.

The main favourites for the win on Montfaucon (3.3 km, 9.4%) were Lenny Martinez, David Gaudu, Felix Gall and Michael Woods. Whilst Lenny Martinez lost to Victor Lafay in the previous year, his compatriot did go on to win a Tour de France stage against the big stars in the Basque Country Grand Depart – on Montfaucon they both did 7,01 ᵉW/Kg for 10:45 min.

Before Montfaucon 23-year-old Uno-X rider Ådne Holter had over a minute lead on the peloton but he would not win the race despite being by far the strongest rider from the breakaway. Lotto Dstny rider Johannes Adamietz before the final climb spent 3,369 kilojoules for 3:59h, which is 13,59 kj/kg/h – a moderate intensity for a one-day race.

After winning Classic Var and Trofeo Laigueglia in the early season and finishing 8th in Strade Bianche, 7th Volta a Catalunya and 2nd in O Gran Camiño against world class competition, Martinez continued his successful season with an early attack on the steep slopes of Montfaucon, immediately opening a gap over his rivals. His teammate David Gaudu tried to attack from the GC group but stopped his attempts when he could not obtain separation.

Martinez with 2.5 km to go caught Holter but was losing speed as he seemed to have spent a lot of energy with his initial acceleration. The 20-year-old Frenchman is reported by RMC Sport to have signed a 3 year deal with Bahrain-Victorious for 2025 onwards, with a reported 800,000 euros per year salary. This would be a huge loss for FDJ, as their big stars Romain Gregoire, Laurence Pithie and Paul Penhoët all are available on free agent market at the same time, with Pithie already rumoured to be heading to Bora-Hansgrohe in 2025. Burgos BH puncheur Victor Langellotti bridged to Martinez but could not drop him and lost his wheel in the final 50 metres.

Martinez went full gas on Montfaucon and produced 7.33 ᵉW/Kg for 10:32 min. Langelotti with much more drafting lost 4 seconds and so ‘only’ averaged 7.11 ᵉW/Kg. Gaudu finished third with 7.05 ᵉW/Kg for 10:43 min. The last breakaway survivor Holter finished 12th, doing 6.13 ᵉW/Kg for 12:22 min as he had a huge headstart at the base of the climb.