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Vingegaard Surprises With Best Pure ᵉW/Kg Effort | O Gran Camiño Stage 2

byKārlis Ozols
February 25, 2023
3 minute read
2 comments

Jonas Vingegaard delivered the second victory for Jumbo-Visma in the 2023 season with a huge climbing performance on Monte Trega, accelerating and quickly creating a gap against his rivals in O Gran Camiño Stage 2. A promising start from the Tour de France champion.

O Gran Camiño 2023 Stage 2 profile by La Flamme Rouge

After the cancelled snow stage the day before, this stage was long and with several climbs before the final up Monte Trega (3.6 km, 7.4%). Efapel rider Joaquim Silva spent 3552 kilojoules for 4:22h before the final climb, which is 11.76 kj/kg/h. Not a hard tempo but still some fatigue was accumulated in the legs.

Jumbo-Visma paced hard at the bottom of Monte Trega (Santa Tecla). The young Norwegian Johannes Staune-Mittet gave his all for Jonas Vingegaard. Staune-Mittet finished 2nd in Tour de l’Avenir last year and definitely has a bright future ahead of him.

Johannes Staune-Mittet showing his best pain face

Vingegaard was riding in front of his teammate Attila Valter. This made initial separation from the group easier for the Dane when he attacked, as none of his rivals were sitting on his wheel. After Staune-Mittet had emptied his tank, Vingegaard started sprinting full gas with 2.4 km to go, immediately creating a huge gap. Cofidis’ leaders were helpless and it was impossible to respond to the incredible acceleration by the reigning Tour de France champion.

Vingegaard accelerates

In 2021 Vingegaard won the Jebel Jais stage in the UAE Tour and the 2022 Drôme Classic, showing great performances in the early season. However his climbing effort on Monte Trega was a big statement that he can push big w/kg after his Tour de France win. In the last kilometre, there was a rough cobble section for around 50 seconds. Unusual for a climbing stage but O Gran Camiño organizers wanted to make the finale more spectacular.

Vingegaard on cobbles

Vingegaard beat his closest rival Ruben Guerreiro by 21 seconds which is massive on a sub-9-minute climb. The biggest surprise was Lukas Nerurkar’s performance. Nerurkar is only 19 years old and riding for Trinity Racing – 9th place on a mountain top finish in a high-level climbing field will bring some attention. Lukas is the son of Richard Nerurkar who finished 5th in the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games marathon and won a World Marathon Cup in San Sebastian in 1993.

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

Vingegaard in our estimations did 7.45 ᵉw/kg for 8 minutes and 38 seconds which is up there with some of the greatest sub-10-minute climbing performances of all time (not many sub-10-minute climbs are paced with a high pace from the bottom). The calculations were made harder due to the 50-60 second cobble section, where the rolling resistance was way higher than on the asphalt. Before the cobble section Vingegaard by our estimations did 7.58 ᵉw/kg for 6:56 min.

Monte Trega climbing times and w/kg calculations by Naichaca

By pure ᵉw/kg standards, this is the best performance so far in 2023. The trend-lines are until the 9-minute mark but if it were extended Vingegaard’s effort would be slightly above the red Generational trend-line, which is extremely hard to achieve. In February probably only Nairo Quintana have performed at such a high level by pure ᵉw/kg standards. That being said, the shorter climbing efforts are harder to evaluate as the power curve gets steeper way faster.

Monte Trega is 27 seconds shorter and 0.20 ᵉw/kg higher than Vingegaard's Mende performance in the 2022 Tour de France according to our estimations. Vingegaard on Mende was sitting on Pogačar's wheel and did not go even full gas but it is impossible to compare the 2022 Tour performances to Monte Trega. Stage 2 in O Gran Camiño was fairly easy, in cool conditions and at the start of a stage race. In contrast, the Mende stage was hot, raced hard from the start and in the middle of a full gas edition of the Tour de France. Nonetheless, this is a great effort and a promising start of the 2023 season for Jumbo-Visma and Vingegaard who does not appear to be suffering from a post Tour de France hangover.

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

O Gran Camiño 2023 Preview | What will Vingegaard Show?

byKārlis Ozols
February 23, 2023
4 minute read
One comment

The second edition of O Gran Camiño will feature the reigning Tour de France champion Jonas Vingegaard who will begin his season here, a huge coup for the organisers. The early Spanish pre-season races have been blessed with big stars, with Pogačar previously attending Clasica Jaen and Vuelta a Andalucia. Here in Galicia, Vingegaard’s biggest challenger is likely to be Movistar with Ruben Guerreiro as well as Cofidis who bring three viable GC leaders.

Data powered by FirstCycling.com

Stage 1

The opening stage likely will end with a reduced bunch sprint. The stage features more than 3,000 metres of climbing which will fatigue legs but there are steady hills rather than hard mountains close to the finish which should not be hard enough to shatter the peloton. Like last year, there are not many fast finishers on the start list. Luke Lamperti (Trinity Racing), Nicolas German Tivani (Corratec), Joaquin Jose Rojas (Movistar), Giovanni Lonardi (EOLO-Kometa), Carlos Canal (Euskadi – Euskaltel) and Lars Boven (Jumbo-Visma) are riders with a faster kick but they will need to survive the climbs. Boven performed well in U23 races in 2022 and has a contract with the Jumbo-Visma development team and will earn valuable experience with the big team. This might be his chance to get a first pro victory.

O Gran Camiño 2023 Stage 1 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Stage 2

The first of two stages with a mountain top finish. The final climb A Guarda (3.9 km, 7.2%) might be too easy for Jonas Vingegaard and is a regular one with no steeper or shallower sections. A relatively easy 10-minute climb might suit more someone like Ruben Guerreiro who is punchy. Guerreiro already won the 2023 Saudi Tour GC and should be good in Galicia. Vingegaard’s teammate Attila Valter might also be good on such a finish, as he prepares for Strade Bianche. Cofidis have also brought a good squad with Jesus Herrada, Simon Geschke and Ion Izagirre. Herrada won on a similar finish in the Tour of Oman and might be their best option.

O Gran Camiño 2023 Stage 2 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Stage 3

The Queen stage with 3,800 metres of elevation and many difficult climbs. The riders will go up the steep Alto de Santa Marina climb (5.5 km, 10.3%) twice. If Jonas Vingegaard is in good shape he might drop everyone already here. However due to the time trial on the final stage, Jumbo-Visma should not be that concerned with doing long-range attacks when Vingegaard even at 95% of top shape is superior in this discipline compared to the Movistar and Cofidis leaders. Hopefully for the fans sake they are aggressive, and the valleys are not long, which suits long-range attacks.

O Gran Camiño 2023 Stage 3 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The final climb Rubia (6.7 km, 6.3%) is not as hard as the previous two ascents in the stage which should motivate early attacks. If the race will not be decided before the final climb the 11.4% steep section might be hard and long enough to ride away from rivals.

Stage 4

If the climbing stages will not have decided the general classification at this point then the final day time-trial finish at Santiago de Compostela will be exciting. Last year Alejandro Valverde beat race leader Michael Woods in the final time trial and won overall by only 7 seconds. Jumbo-Visma riders excel in time trials and their setup definitely is very good especially compared to Movistar. Rohan Dennis, Jonas Vingegaard and Steven Kruijswijk if they go full gas should do well on the hilly course with 308 metres of elevation gain in 18km.

O Gran Camiño 2023 Stage 4 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Contenders

Alongside Vingegaard, Jumbo-Visma have sent Steven Kruijswijk, Rohan Dennis, Johannes Staune-Mittet, Loe van Belle, Attila Valter and Lars Boven. Youngsters Staune-Mittet and Van Belle finished last year in Tour de l’Avenir 2nd and 9th respectively. In 2022 as a second-year U23 rider, the Norwegian Staune-Mittet was promising in his season debut in Volta ao Algarve and later did great in U23 races even winning the Ronde de l’Isard GC. It is an extremely strong squad for a 2.1 race with a time trial, but it is impossible to know the shape of Vingegaard before the race.

Primosten – Croatia – cycling – Jonas Vingegaard (DEN – Team Jumbo – Visma) pictured during 7th CRO Race (2.1) stage 3 Sinj > Primosten (157km) – Photo: Tommaso Pelagalli/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

This is a home race for Movistar. The Spanish team has sent a good squad with Ruben Guerreiro, Abner Gonzalez, Will Barta, Antonio Pedrero, Jorge Arcas, Joaquin Jose Rojas and Ivan Ramiro Sosa. It will be hard to challenge Jumbo-Visma but the Dutch team might not care as much about this race as Movistar. Vingegaard definitely will not be at his peak or close to it in February.

Aside from Jumbo-Visma and Movistar, the GC field is not so deep in the absence of EF-Education EasyPost who attended this race last year in dire need of UCI points. Jesus Herrada, Ion Izagirre and Simon Geschke (Cofidis), David De La Cruz (Astana), Lorenzo Fortunato (EOLO-Kometa), Igor Arrieta (Equipo Kern Pharma) and Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda (Caja-Rural) might be other riders who might show something in GC.

Prediction

Jonas started his 2022 season in strong fashion with a dominant victory in Drôme Classic ahead of Ayuso. Even if he is not at 90% of his Tour shape the Dane should be good enough to win this race mainly due to the time trial. Guerreiro, Herrada & Co will need to gain a lot of time against Jumbo-Visma riders in the mountains to have a chance of defending the jersey in the final stage.

Top 10 Climbers for the 2023 Season

byGabriel Stróżyk
February 19, 2023
1 minute read
8 comments

The 2022 cycling season was full of top level climbing performances with many records broken and new climbers bursting onto the scene. The list of Top 10 climbing performances of 2022 was dominated by Evenepoel and Vingegaard but will the same riders dominate the long ascents in 2023?

In this piece I will present my opinion on who the 10 best climbers are going to be in the 2023 season. Keep in mind that while their previous climbing performances obviously play a large role in this ranking, career trajectory, recent improvements and age are also factored into the predicted improvement or decline of riders.

10. Geraint Thomas

Foix – France – cycling – Geraint Thomas (GBR / Team INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during 109th Tour de France (2.UWT) stage 16 Carcassonne > Foix (179KM) – Photo: Dion Kerckhoffs/Cor Vos © 2022

Best Performance: Alpe d’Huez: 39’12min at 6,08ᵉw/kg (2022)
Nationality: United Kingdom
Team: INEOS Grenadiers

Geraint Thomas had a successful re-emergence as an elite Grand Tour specialist in 2022, winning the Tour de Suisse and finishing on the podium of the Tour de France for the third time in his career. Thomas’ consistent power output during last year’s Tour, which was comparable to, if not higher than, his winning performance in 2018, makes him one of the top contenders for the Giro d’Italia – his main target this year.

Thomas’ impressive performance included a new personal best on Alpe d’Huez, where he improved his previous time from 2018 by two minutes.

At 36 years old, the Welshman’s motivation to make sacrifices will greatly impact his climbing ability in what could be his final season as a professional. The strong lineup for the Giro, which includes Remco Evenepoel, Jay Vine, and Primoz Roglic, means that Thomas will need to be in the top shape of his career to have any chance of winning the Maglia Rosa.

9. Cian Uijtdebroeks

Huy – Belgium- cycling – Cian Uijtdebroeks of Bora – HansGrohe pictured during 43rd Ethias-Tour de Wallonie (2.Pro) stage 1 – Temploux > Huy (174.4km – Photo: Xavier Piron/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

Best Performance: Longchamp: 41’15min at 5,88ᵉw/kg (2022)
Nationality: Belgium
Team: Bora Hansgrohe

It may be surprising to some that a 19-year-old is this high on the list, but Cian Uijtdebroeks’ consistent success in Junior and under-23 races has made it likely that he will have a breakout performance in the professional scene this calendar year.

What really set him apart and showcased his potential as a generational talent was his performance in the Tour de l’Avenir, also referred to as the under-23 Tour de France. He delivered an impressive display on Longchamp, with a time of 41’15min at an average power output of 5’88ᵉw/kg, which rivals Quintana’s ascent to Risoul in 2010 as the most impressive display in the history of the race. In doing so, Uijtdebroeks became youngest ever winner of Tour de l’Avenir.

Check out a detailed analysis of Uijtdebroeks’ impressive Tour de l’Avenir here.

At a similar age to Uijtdebroeks, Juan Ayuso dominated the Baby Giro, considered the second most important under-23 race for stage racers. However, Ayuso was not quite able to match Uijtdebroeks’ Avenir climbing level in that race, which took place just a year before Ayuso stormed onto the podium of the La Vuelta a España at the age of 19.

Given Uijtdebroeks’ young age, current trajectory and world class team structure at Bora-Hansgrohe, it is likely that he will follow a similar path as Ayuso and compete for the podium in La Vuelta a España, which the young Belgian is expected to ride this year.

8. Richard Carapaz

Alto de lÕAngliru – Spain – wielrennen – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – escape Richard Carapaz (Ecuador / Team Ineos-Grenadier) pictured during 75th La Vuelta ciclista a Espana (2.UWT) stage 12 from Pola de Laviana > Alto de lÕAngliru (109.4KM) – photo Luis Gomez/Cor Vos © 2020

Best Performance: Alto de l’Angliru: 42’59min at 6,19ᵉw/kg (2020)
Nationality: Ecuador
Team: EF Education-Easy Post

Richard Carapaz changed teams after missing out on a Grand Tour GC win again in 2022, so will now be riding for Vaughters’ American outfit as their Grand Tour leader. Although he was not able to match Jai Hindley’s peak climbing level in the Giro on Passo Fedaia, Carapaz is still one of the most consistent elite climbers in the world.

Throughout the Giro, Carapaz consistently performed well and seemed comfortable following on nearly all of the stages. His best performance came on Santa Cristina (36’15min at 6,20ᵉw/kg) where he followed the attacks of Landa and Hindley without seeming to struggle.

However, his only major setback in the race was on Stage 20, where his team INEOS paced inexplicably hard on the early slopes of Passo Fedaia, almost launching Jay Hindley to take the overall lead with a very impressive display at altitude (18’50min at 6,51ᵉw/kg) a pace Carapaz could not keep up with.

Puerto de Navacerrada – Spain – cycling – Richard Carapaz (ECU – INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during 77th La Vuelta ciclista a España (2.UWT) – stage 20 Moralzarzal > Puerto de Navacerrada (181km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Apart from his consistent climbing ability, Carapaz is also a skilled tactician with excellent race craft. In fact, he won three stages and the KOM jersey of La Vuelta by utilising these skills despite being a marked man in all of the breakaways. It is not confirmed what his main target for the 2023 season will be, although he is most likely going to attempt to finish on the Tour de France General Classification podium again.

7. Enric Mas

San Luca - Italia - cycling - Enric Mas (ESP - Movistar Team) - Tadej Pogacar (SLO - UAE Team Emirates) pictured during Giro Dell'Emilia Internazionale men Elite 2022 - Carpi > San Luca (89,7km) - Photo: Massimo Fulgenzi/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Best Performance: Alto de l'Angliru: 42'55min at 6,20ᵉw/kg (2020)
Nationality: Spain
Team: Movistar

During the spring stage races of 2022, Enric Mas was in good shape, but unfortunately crashed hard in all of them, ruining his chances for a top GC result. He then had a very disappointing Tour de France, in which he was not competitive, struggled with descending and retired due to Covid. However, Mas managed to impress again in La Vuelta.

On the first mountain stage of his home Grand Tour, Mas showed that he would be a different rider than he was in the Tour. He followed the "Generational" Evenepoel in the draft and finished third on the stage. Although he did not generate as many watts as Evenepoel, Mas managed to perform at his best level with a power output of 6,26ᵉw/kg for 30'09min. He continued to impress with a consistently high level of performance, being a top-three climber on all of the remaining mountain stages and performing at his career best level throughout the race. As a result, he finished second in the General Classification of La Vuelta for the third time.

After the race, Mas said that this performance gave him a lot of confidence for the future and he is now aiming for a Grand Tour GC win. He certainly displayed this newfound confidence in the autumn classics, winning the Giro dell'Emilia (after dropping Pogačar) and finishing second in Il Lombardia. Mas has already demonstrated the necessary climbing ability to win a Grand Tour, and at the age of 28, he still has many attempts at a three-week race left. However, his sub-par time trialing ability means that everything would have to go right for him to accomplish his dream.

6. Primoz Roglic

Lagos de Covadonga - Spain - wielrennen - cycling - cyclisme - radsport - Primoz Roglic (Slovenia / Team Jumbo-Visma) pictured during 76th La Vuelta ciclista a Espana (2.UWT) stage 17 from Unquera to Lagos de Covadonga (185.8KM) - photo Luis Gomez/Cor Vos © 2021

Best Performance: Lagos de Covadonga: 26'45min at 6,36ᵉw/kg after La Collada Llomena 22'50min at 6,52ᵉw/kg (2021)
Nationality: Slovenia
Team: Jumbo Visma

In a similar ranking from 12 months ago, Primoz Roglic would have ranked in the top two without a doubt, but 2022 was a year of setbacks for the Slovenian cyclist. Although he managed to win Paris-Nice and Criterium du Dauphiné despite some difficulties, the rest of the year was a series of unfortunate events.

Roglic suffered a knee injury that rendered him uncompetitive in Itzulia Basque Country and forced him to withdraw from the Ardennes Classics. He returned for the Dauphiné and won the General Classification, but the race appeared to be a passing of the torch moment. Roglic performed admirably on the tough Solaison climb, averaging 6.27ᵉw/kg for 34'34min, however, his teammate Jonas Vingegaard, who set most of the pace, appeared to slow down heavily in the last 2.5km to avoid dropping Roglic. If Vingegaard were on an opposing team, he would have likely gained up to even a minute on Roglic on the climb.

Roglic subsequently crashed out of the Tour early, but was able to assist Vingegaard on the first big alpine stage. He later also crashed out of the Vuelta while in second place in the General Classification.

It appears that Roglic' performance declined somewhat during the 2022 season, as evidenced by the Solaison climb, which was not an occurrence we had seen in previous years, particularly in 2020 and 2021. Additionally, GC riders usually do not perform as well after being outperformed by their teammates (such as Hinault in 1986, Riis in 1997, and Wiggins after 2012).

After Jonas Vingegaard's victory in the Tour de France, the Dane appears to be the team's clear number one, leaving Roglic to focus on the Giro d'Italia. Given Roglic' age of 33 and multiple severe crashes and injuries over the past year, it is likely that he will experience some decline once again, whilst still remaining a top climber.

5. Jay Vine

San Miguel de Aguayo – Spain – cycling – Jay Vine (AUS – Alpecin – Fenix) pictured during 77th La Vuelta ciclista a Espa–a (2.UWT) – stage 6 Bilbao > Ascensi—n al Pico Jano San Miguel de Aguayo (181.2km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Best Performance: Pico Jano: 29'53min at 6,58ᵉw/kg (2022)
Nationality: Australia
Team: UAE Emirates

It might seem overly optimistic to rank Jay Vine this high, but the Australian cyclist has shown that he can perform at an elite level and his best performances are among the most impressive in the last 20 years. He has also settled in well at his new team, winning the Australian National ITT Championships and the Tour Down Under GC in the first month of the season.

Vine had a decent start last year, finishing second on Mont Bouquet with a power output of 6,67ᵉw/kg for 13'29min. However, he was not competitive for the next three months due to an infection. Vine showed his potential on the climb of Gaustatoppen Stavsro during the Tour of Norway, where he performed at an elite level (30'49min at 6,34ᵉw/kg) to finish second behind Remco Evenepoel. He then won the Pico Jano mountaintop finish of La Vuelta from the peloton with a breathtaking 6,58ᵉw/kg for 29'53min.

Vine also won another stage two days later from the breakaway and was defending the KOM jersey before crashing out in the third week. However, he was not able to replicate his performance on Pico Jano. Vine can perform at a peak level that is currently only matched by a three or less riders, but he needs to improve his consistency to earn the 5th place in this ranking. Vine was a latecomer to the sport, but he has improved every year despite being 27 years old. This is why I remain confident that he will be a Top 5 climber in 2023.

4. Juan Ayuso

San Miguel de Aguayo – Spain – cycling – Juan Ayuso (ESP – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during 77th La Vuelta ciclista a Espa–a (2.UWT) – stage 6 Bilbao > Ascensi—n al Pico Jano San Miguel de Aguayo (181.2km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Best Performance: Peñas Blancas: 45'40min at 6,13ᵉw/kg (2022)
Nationality: Spain
Team: UAE Emirates

In his first full professional season in 2022, the young Spaniard made quite an impression. He particularly stood out in his first full Grand Tour, the Vuelta a España, finishing on the overall podium.

Ayuso had a somewhat slow first part of the season, where he performed well but failed to reach a very high climbing level. However, he really showed his potential in La Vuelta. Although he struggled in a rather easy, but hot, hill stage in the Basque Country, he then climbed consistently at a very high level. This includes a fourth place finish on Pico Jano (30'48min at 6,23ᵉw/kg) and a second place finish from the GC group on Les Praeres (15'40min at 6,56ᵉw/kg). Ayuso also proved to be competitive at altitude, with an impressive chase on Sierra Nevada to finish fifth from the peloton after being dropped early due to positioning issues.

At just 20 years old, Ayuso is still very young but already is performing at an extremely high level. His performances in La Vuelta can be compared to Tadej Pogacar's in the 2019 Vuelta when he was one year older than Ayuso was in 2022. This is why I expect Ayuso to be one of the world's best climbers in 2023.

For a more detailed analysis, where Juan Ayuso is compared to other mega talents at the same age, check out this article.

3. Tadej Pogačar

Luz Ardiden - France - wielrennen - cycling - cyclisme - radsport - Tadej Pogacar (Slovenia / UAE - Team Emirates) - Jonas Vingegaard (Denmark / Team Jumbo-Visma) - Richard Carapaz (Ecuador / Team INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during 108th Tour de France 2021 stage 18 from Pau to Luz Ardiden (129.7KM) - photo Pool/Cor Vos © 2021

Best Performance: Col de la Loze: 1'01'15h at 5,88ᵉw/kg (2020)
Nationality: Slovenia
Team: UAE Emirates

Tadej Pogačar is an obvious choice for the top 3, and he is the third rider from UAE Emirates to make it into the top 5, showcasing their exceptional depth in elite climbing talent, which they are spreading out over the Grand Tours - Vine riding the Giro, Pogačar to the Tour and Ayuso for La Vuelta.

Although Pogačar lost at the Tour for the first time in three years in 2022, his performance level remained as high as ever. He performed at his peak level on all the mountain stages except on Stage 11 to Col du Granon, where he messed up his tactics, leading to unnecessary additional time loss.

His performances in the third week remained elite, but still below those of Jonas Vingegaard, as the Dane managed to take another 1'12min on Pogačar before giving up some time to celebrate with his teammates on the Champs Elysees.

It may be a difficult task for Pogačar to win the Tour, as Jonas Vingegaard seems to have another level on the long climbs, but Pogačar's ability to produce high-level performances repeatedly and after hard stages remains a serious weapon. With a dominant ride on Despiernacaballos in the Vuelta a Andalucia after a hard stage, Pogacar showed he is here to stay, although there was no noticeable improvement in performance compared to previous seasons.

2. Remco Evenepoel

Velódromo Vicente Chancay - Argentina - cycling - Remco Evenepoel (BEL - Soudal - Quick Step) pictured during Vuelta a San Juan 2023 - 40th Edition - stage 6 - Velódromo Vicente Chancay to Velódromo Vicente Chancay (144,9km) - Photo: Ilario Biondi/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Best Performance: Pico Jano: 30'08min at 6,50ᵉw/kg (2022)
Nationality: Belgium
Team: Soudal - QuickStep

Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel were neck and neck for the second spot, as their climbing level is almost identical. I decided to give Evenepoel the edge as he has more potential for improvement in 2023, since his development is likely a bit delayed due to his terrible crash in the 2020 Il Lombardia. On the other hand, Pogačar has maintained a consistent performance level since the 2020 Tour de France, so it is unlikely that he will improve further.

Evenepoel had a slow start last year, not performing well on climbs until May. However, he finally unleashed his climbing skills and won the Tour of Norway GC, averaging 6,50ᵉw/kg for 30'23min on the Gaustatoppen Stavsro climb. The Belgian later won Klasika San Sebastian with the largest gap since 1990, after releasing another incredible climbing performance on Erlaitz (11'56min at 7,25ᵉw/kg).

He also dominated the Vuelta from start to finish, even though he struggled on the La Pandera mountaintop finish after a crash two days earlier. That climb was the only significant difficulty for Evenepoel in the race, and he became the first Belgian Grand Tour winner since 1978, before claiming the World Championships Road Race as well.

Evenepoel has yet to prove himself on really hard mountain stages with multiple long climbs, which he will face in the Giro d'Italia, where he is considered the favorite. While all signs indicate that he will perform well, it remains to be seen if he will dominate those stages as he did in La Vuelta a España.

1. Jonas Vingegaard

Paris - France - cycling - Vingegaard Jonas (DEN) of Team Jumbo-Visma pictured during 109th Tour de France (2.UWT) stage 21 Paris La Défense > Paris (Champs-Élysées) (112KM) - Photo: Nico Vereecken/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

Best Performance: Hautacam: 36'30min at 6,32ᵉw/kg after Spandelles: 29'57min at 6,17ᵉw/kg (2022)
Nationality: Denmark
Team: Jumbo Visma

Jonas Vingegaard is the clear choice for the best climber in the world for 2023, after he won the General Classification of the Tour de France 2022. He dominated the mountain stages in that race, gaining 4'01min over second-place Tadej Pogacar.

Such dominance would have been unthinkable until a few weeks before the Tour, when the Dane won on the Solaison climb as described above. He still improved quite a bit for the Tour, showing very impressive climbing performances on Stage 11 to Col du Granon and Stage 18 to Hautacam, and equalling Pogačar in the time trials. His unprecedented climbing ability, especially on long and steep climbs, combined with his elite time-trialing skills make him a perfect Grand Tour specialist, even if he does not perform in every race all year round like Tadej Pogačar.

It is unlikely that Jonas Vingegaard will perform much worse than last year, and other riders, even super talents like Evenepoel, Pogacar, and Ayuso, will have to improve significantly to match him in the mountains. Thanks to these abilities and a great cast of supporting riders, Vingegaard has a good chance of defending the Yellow Jersey in 2023 and realising this number one ranking.

Conclusion

It is difficult to predict the top 10 climbers before the season starts because there are many elite climbers in the peloton and a lot can change in a year. That is why I have included many young riders with great potential in my list, such as Evenepoel and Uijtdebroeks. In recent years, cyclists have been performing at an elite level at a very young age, so it is possible that a rider like Cian Uijtdebroeks or another less obvious talent could be among the best climbers in 2023.

We will start to see some of these predictions being proven or disproven over the next month with several important one-week stage races coming up, such as Paris-Nice (featuring Vingegaard, Pogačar, and Bernal), Tirreno-Adriatico (featuring Vine, Mas, Landa, Thomas, and Hindley), and Catalunya (featuring Evenepoel, Roglic, Ayuso, Vine, and Uijtdebroeks).

Feel free to share your own predictions for the top 10 climbers of 2023, and check back here throughout the year for watts estimations and articles on the climbing performances from all the major races.

Gabriel Stróżyk (@NaichacaCycling)

Tadej Pogačar Smashes Everyone on Day One | Vuelta a Andalucia Stage 1 2023

byKārlis Ozols
February 16, 2023
3 minute read
No comments

Tadej Pogačar continued his winning streak at Vuelta a Andalucia Stage 1, winning it solo after attacking the final climb. It was the fourth consecutive win for the UAE Emirates superstar who previously won Tre Valli Varesine, Il Lombardia and Jaén Paraiso Interior.

Vuelta a Andalucia Ruta Ciclista Del Sol Stage 1 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The route included almost 4000 metres of elevation, which is a lot for this time of the year, especially over 178 kilometres. The final climb was Alto de Despiernacaballos (the climb of woken horses) with the steeper section being 7.8 km at 7.06% gradient. The final three kilometres were shallow and under 4% but the crest was 7.6 km from the finish with a shallow descent after it.

Matej Mohorič before the decisive climb spent 4080 kilojoules for 4:33h, which is a hard effort with 12.43 kj/kg/h (using Mohorič’s Strava input weight of 72 kg). UAE-Emirates were pacing the final climb for Pogačar with Tim Wellens, the Belgian recruit even creating a gap at one moment to his back wheel. Rafal Majka and George Bennett were also in the mountain train, both of whom rode as domestiques in UAE’s 2022 Tour de France squad. This firepower from UAE served to shred the group.

Tim Wellens getting a gap at the start of the climb

It was obvious Pogačar would attack, everyone knew what would happen, just like when UAE paced in Il Lombardia. The Slovene accelerated with 12.4 km to go and immediately distanced his rivals, getting a small gap. Santiago Buitrago, after a solid performance at Saudi Tour, was strong enough to catch Pogačar but the Colombian was a few moments later dropped as the double Tour de France winner accelerated again.

Pogačar attacks, Buitrago trying to close the gap

Pogačar climbed Despiernacaballos in 19 minutes and 25 seconds, doing an estimated 6.33 ᵉw/kg. The pace before the attack was not too high and the stage before Despiernacaballos already was more than 4 hours and 30 minutes long and hard with countless mountains. Pogačar was faster than his closest rivals in the second group, Buitrago, Mas, Rodriguez and Landa, by 37 seconds. Pavel Sivakov, Jeffereson Cepeda and Tao Geoghegan Hart who did an impressive performance a week ago in Valenciana were in the third group.

Pogačar basically held his gap stable in the descent and rolling terrain to the finish, winning with a 38-second lead over the chasing group. This was another impressive performance for Pogačar, who always is very consistent and ready to perform at a good level at the start of the season. There are four stages left in Vuelta a Andalucia, but with this being the Queen stage and his dominance over the competition, the general classification looks to already be over. If he truly wants, Pogačar might win the four remaining stages like completing a side quest in a video game.

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Pogačar’s climbing performance is very close to the green Grand Tour Top 10 trend-line. His overall w/kg for the duration of time might have been more impressive if there was included the shallow three kilometres in our estimations but it is difficult to calculate w/kg on a 1-3% gradient. This also was not a hill-top finish, with Pogačar needing to ride hard on the shallow descent, pushing descent watts alone without the drafting effect that the group had behind.

As mentioned previously, the stage according to Mohorič's Strava data was hard and long. With huge fatigue and easy pacing at the start of the climb, it is no surprise that Pogačar was able to create such a gap on a 20 minute climb once he burst from the group. In stark contrast was today's Queen stage of the 2023 Tour of Oman, where everything was perfect for high w/kg performances except for perhaps the hot conditions.

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

Mega w/kg and a new record on Jabal Al Akhdhar | Tour of Oman Stage 5 2023

byKārlis Ozols
February 15, 2023
3 minute read
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With nearly perfect conditions for climbing and high w/kg performances, it was inevitable that we would see huge watts on Jabal Al Akhdhar by multiple riders. Mauri Vansevanant, despite winning the stage, lost GC by a mere second to the American Matteo Jorgenson. Both rider’s contracts end after this season.

Tour of Oman Stage 5 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

It was an easy day for riders in the peloton before the nasty Jabal Al Akhdar (5.7km, 10%) climb. One of the favourites for the stage win Rein Taaramäe did only 2387 kilojoules for 3:39h with an average heart rate of 106. With less than 10 kJ/kg/h GC contenders definitely had fresh legs at the base of the climb.

The conditions for high w/kg performances were perfect as Intermarche – Circus – Wanty paced very hard at the bottom of Jabal Al Akhdar. Taaramäe did 499 watts for the first 2:41 minutes of the climb, averaging 20 km/h on a 10.7% gradient. The Intermarche guys were doing their best to set as hard pace as possible. Lightweight Louis Meintjes was perfect for the 10% gradients and did the last pull for team leader Taaramäe, reducing the group to a select group of riders.

Meintjes pulling hard

After all the domestiques were used, Taaramäe did not accelerate but continued to hold a steady pace, pushing around 450-460 watts, which is very close to 7 w/kg. It was enough to drop Cian Uijtdebroeks, Alexey Lutsenko and other GC contenders. But the stage 3 winner Matteo Jorgenson, Mauri Vansevenant and Geoffrey Bouchard were able to hold on, the latter of whom seems to perform well in easy desert races with a final w/kg test.

Taaramäe shredding the peloton with a constant tempo

Taaramäe’s pace was not high enough to drop anyone who was left in the first group. The Estonian was in great shape after his Rwanda high-altitude camp. Last year Taaramäe was working for Jan Hirt and pulled for him on Jabal Al Akhdar. This year Hirt, now a Soudal-Quick Step rider, was not anywhere near his 2022 Tour of Oman level. Despite pulling the other GC favourites, the Estonian was dropped once Bouchard accelerated. The GC situation was close and bonus seconds could have decided the overall winner too. Vansevanant was only 5 seconds back to Jorgenson, while Bouchard was at 14 seconds.

Bouchard, Vansevenant, Jorgenson in the last km

In the end, Vansevenant was good enough to win the stage ahead of Jorgenson, despite being boxed in with a few hundred metres remaining. However he did not create enough of a gap between him and the Movistar talent, which meant the Jorgenson won the Tour of Oman by 1 second. It was his first pro-GC win and second pro-win ever. Jorgenson performed exceptionally well on steep gradients in the Tour of Oman and his contract is ending this year with Movistar. The 23-year-old American will be a hot target in the free agent market after his consistent 2022 performances and the great start of 2023.

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Vansevenant and Jorgenson broke Rafael Valls climbing record by 16 seconds. Valls in 2015 climbed Green Mountain in 18:28 min, pushing an estimated 6.62 ᵉw/kg. Chris Froome in 2014 did Jabal Al Akhdhar in 18:33 min. Both Jorgenson and Vansevenant did 6.74 ᵉw/kg for 18:12 min. Bouchard also was faster than the previous record.

Jabal al Akhdhar – Green Mountain w/kg estimations and times by Naichaca

Both Jorgenson and Vansevenant’s performances are above the yellow Grand Tour winner’s trendline. Does this mean they can win a Grand Tour in 2023? The climbing conditions were perfect. Low altitude climb, steep, steady pace, low kilojoules before the climb and relatively fresh legs. Everyone in the GC group did one of the best performances in their career at least by pure w/kg standards. Nonetheless it is very impressive and will be interesting to follow in 2023 how these riders will perform on climbs on harder races.

Even Cian Uijtdebroeks at 19 years old did a good performance, finishing tenth and losing 72 seconds to the fastest riders. Three riders did surpass the yellow Grand Tour winner's trendline and seven the Grand Tour Top 10 trendline, which is also high performance and not easy to achieve in a race. This is a February race and not everyone was in their peak shape and some of the riders from the Top 10 might do bigger performances later in the season. It is definitely not a step back for Uijtdebroeks, who might be capable of more later in the season.

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

Jorgenson Pushes 1000 Watts Up 10% | Tour of Oman 2023 Stage 3

byKārlis Ozols
February 14, 2023
3 minute read
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After a hard 10 minute climb, the American young talent Matteo Jorgenson did a huge acceleration on the final pinch of Jabal Haat, winning his first pro race and becoming the new GC leader of the Tour of Oman.

Tour of Oman Stage 3 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The stage before the final climb was easy, which meant huge w/kg performances on the final climb as everyone had fresh legs. Jabal Haat is an irregular climb with gradients going over 10%+ in the final 1.6 kilometres, but averaging 7.7% for 4.6km.

The first part of Jabal Haat was paced by the Lotto-DSTNY climbers. They were working for Maxim van Gils who finished second on the first uphill finish in Stage 2 losing only to Jesus Herrada. Today it was a harder finish than on Stage 2 and the climb suited climbers who can push good w/kg for at least 10 minutes rather than puncheurs.

Everything was decided in the last kilometre. After his teammate Abner Gonzalez had the emptied tank with a very hard pace, Movistar leader Matteo Jorgenson tested his rivals’ legs with a hard acceleration, stretching out and shredding the group up 10%+ gradients. After American’s move, Estonian Rein Taaramae counter-attacked, completely shattering the group.

Jorgenson Matteo (USA) of Movistar Team – Uijtdebroeks Cian (BEL) of BORA hansgrohe, Vansevenant Mauri (BEL) of Soudal – Quick Step, Taaramae Rein (EST) of Intermarche – Circus – Wanty pictured during stage 3 of the 12th edition of the 2023 Tour of Oman UCI ProSeries cycling race Al Khobar – Jabal Hatt 152 km, Oman – Photo: Vincent Kalut/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

Jorgenson had to do 657 watts for 45 seconds during his attack and later response to follow Taaramae, the latter of whom has just completed an altitude camp in Rwanda and has clearly arrived in great condition. After the huge watts explosion, everyone calmed down and Jorgenson then had to do 393 watts for 99 seconds. This was during the period that Astana’s Tejada began to pace but in the end, he only dropped his teammate Lutsenko. In this period Jorgenson could in theory rest and reload his bullets while pushing close to 6 w/kg.

Jorgenson obviously felt good and started his final punch on Jabal Haat very early, with over 30 seconds remaining on the climb. No one could contest the American in the sprint, who hit a maximum power of 1027 watts at the end of a 10+minute climb. The overall effort of 878 watts or 12+ w/kg for 30 seconds was enough to gap everyone and win with a two-second margin over the closest competitors.

Jorgenson’s Strava data

Mauri Vansevenant, Geoffrey Bouchard, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Victor Langellotti and Rein Taaramae were in the following group. This was the second-hardest uphill finish in the Tour of Oman 2023. Uijtdebroeks might follow better on Jabal al Akhdhar as it is a longer climb and needs a more steady high w/kg output. Even with fresh legs, it would not have been easy to follow a 1000w+ sprint at the end of a 10+min climb.

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Jorgenson pushed 6.71 ᵉw/kg for 11:52 min on Jabal Haat based on our estimations, which are normalised for a 60 kg rider. It was an irregular climb with multiple accelerations and the best climbers’ normalised power was probably over 7 ᵉw/kg. If Jorgenson was capable of doing such an acceleration in the final 30 seconds, it is clear he could have pushed more ᵉw/kg with a steadier effort.

W/kg calculations and climbing times by Naichaca

Jorgenson’s effort is exactly on the green Grand Tour Top 10 trendline. That is great for the early season but the peloton before Jabal Haat did only 2300 kilojoules for 3:28 h, which is around 10 kj/kg/h. A very easy effort before the climb, which is one of the main reasons for high w/kg output.

Will anyone be able to better Vlasov's early season benchmark from Valenciana on the famous Green Mountain ramps on Wednesday? We cannot wait to find out.

Jaén Paraiso Interior 2023 Preview | Pogačar Starts His Season

byKārlis Ozols
February 13, 2023
4 minute read
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Jaén Paraiso Interior is a new Spanish gravel race, billed as the future Iberian rival to Strade Bianche. Despite this being only the second edition of the exciting 1.1 UCI category race, the start list is impressive as Tadej Pogačar, the best male cyclist in the last three years, will begin his 2023 campaign in the south of Spain.

Provisional Start List

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Jaén Paraiso Interior 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Jaén Paraiso Interior is even harder than Strade Bianche and is more suited for lighter riders around 65-70kg weight like Pogačar and Lutsenko, the Kazakh being the winner of the inaugural edition in 2022. The 178.9 kilometre-long route with 2704 metres of elevation gain is a huge challenge. The kilometres and climbing metres are similar to the 2023 Strade Bianche (184.62 km, 3107m) but in the Italian gravel race, the climbs are steeper and shorter like in Ardennes classics, while in Jaén Paraiso Interior the route with 3-5 km long gravel climbs with a gradient around 4-6% are suited more for climbers than classics specialists. In the last 40 kilometres of the race, there is only short 1 km hills left but at that point, the race might be decided – both Pogačar and Lutsenko won with long solos in their 2022 gravel race victories.

Contenders

Pogačar is the huge favourite to win this. One of the reasons is the UAE-Emirates team strength as they always send a stacked squad for these early season 1.1 category UCI races. Tim Wellens, Marc Hirschi, Matteo Trentin, Alessandro Covi, Domen Novak, Sjoerd Bax and Pogačar is a ridiculous team for this race – an organiser’s dream. In the betting markets, there are five UAE riders among the top 7 likeliest riders to take the win according to the odds.

Siena – Italy – cycling – Tadej Pogacar (SLO – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during 8th Strade Bianche Donne (1.WWT) a one day race between Siena and Siena (184KM) – Photo: Anton Vos/Cor Vos © 2022

UAE also sent a very strong team to Trofeo Calvia but their leaders and race favourites Brandon McNulty and Tim Wellens crashed out in the wet conditions. Luckily for UAE, there will not be rain in Jaen and around 17-19 degrees celsius temperature – perfect weather for racing. Wellens finished 2nd behind Lutsenko in the 2022 race but the Kazakh star is riding the Tour of Oman. UAE-Emirates will have the numbers and they are more likely to win this race than to lose.

Ubeda – Spain – cycling – Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ – Astana Qazaqstan Team) – Lennard Kamna (GER – Bora – Hansgrohe) pictured during Clasica Jaen Paraiso Interior 2022 – 1st Edition – Baeza – Ubeda 187,8 km – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/Cor Vos © 2022

Who can challenge UAE’s dream team? Simon Clarke is one rival in terrific shape. The Australian finished second in the one-day race in Murcia two days ago and third in the Cadel Evans Race. In the 2021 Strade Bianche, Clarke finished 8th behind Van der Poel, Alaphilippe, Bernal, Van Aert, Pidcock, Gogl and Pogačar. If someone can surprise UAE, it is him.

Geelong – Australia – cycling – Simon Clarke (AUS – Israel – Premier Tech) pictured during 8th Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race (1.UWT) a one day race between Geelong an Geelong (174.3km) – Photo: Kei Tsuji/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

His teammate in the Israel-Premier Tech team, Krists Neilands, is also in good shape. The Latvian has experience riding local mountain bike races in his youth and U23 years which will be useful for the gravel sectors. There are plenty of gravel roads in the place where Neilands grew up and he will feel comfortable on this surface.

Arkea Samsic with Matis Louvel (22nd in the 2022 Jaen), Warren Barguil, (7th) Clement Champoussin and Simon Gugliemi (11th) look decent. Louvel in 2022 finished 6th in the exciting Tro-Bro-Leon, which includes off-road sections and 15th in Paris-Roubaix and 17th Ronde van Vlaanderen which are also promising results for such a young rider.

One lesson from this early season is to never write off Intermaché – Circus – Wanty. Loïc Vliegen was third in the 2022 Jaen Classic, Lorenzo Rota was terrific throughout 2022 and new recruit Dion Smith finished 7th in the Cadel Evans race a few weeks ago. Lotto DSTNY has sent Andreas Kron (9th in the 2022 Jaen), Dutch champion Pascal Eenkhoorn who started his season well in Trofeo Calvia and finished 7th in Murcia and neo-pro Lennert Van Eevtelt. The 21-year-old Belgian finished 2nd and 3rd in Mallorca races and definitely can climb.

Lloseta – Mallorca/Spain – cycling – Lennert Van Eetvelt (BEL – Lotto Dstny) pictured during Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana 23 – a one day race from Andratx to Lloseta (123,2 km) – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 202C

INEOS has not published their start list as they possibly will do last-minute changes. Ben Turner was on the early start list but he already raced in Clasica de Almeria and Murcia which he won. If Turner starts in Jaen, it will be his third consecutive day in the Spanish classics.

Prediction

Pogačar. In his pre-race interview with MARCA, the Slovenian said he is in good shape and his weight is at his standard level as he can keep it constant. Pogačar has not done an altitude camp but he is still probably the best classics rider in the world on such parcours. If he is attending a race, he will try his best and test his legs after the off-season. UAE-Emirates have sent a strong squad and it is of course possible that one of Pogačar’s teammates might take the victory. The versatile veteran Simon Clarke is probably the biggest threat to UAE.

Clasica de Almeria 2023 Preview | Can Anyone Stop Arnaud De Lie?

byKārlis Ozols
February 12, 2023
4 minute read
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Clasica de Almeria is one of the biggest one-day races in February, with its 1.Pro status (read UCI Points) and great location attracting many teams. The sprinters list is impressive and long, including Arnaud De Lie, Alexander Kristoff, Fernando Gaviria, Jordi Meeus, Giacomo Nizzolo and other fast finishers.

Clasica de Almeria 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The route is suited for strong sprinters who can climb well. There are 1695 metres of elevation gain in the 190.9 kilometres long race but most of the climbing will be done in the first half, while the second half is soft from a climbing perspective. The route in recent years has been almost identical. Despite the relatively easy last 85 kilometres, usually a few fast finishers do not stay in the first group in the rolling terrain.

The 2023 edition will be loaded with big-name riders. Arnaud De Lie is the main favourite as he has already won three races this year. In Etoile de Besseges he won on a punchy finish, holding onto Mads Pedersen’s wheel, as well as a hilly stage from a reduced bunch sprint against climbers. On the Queen stage, De Lie finished 8th up Le Mont Bouquet (4.6 km, 9.1%) and was 7th in the overall. The young bull opened his season with a win in a Valencian one-day race, surviving hard hills. Clasica de Almeria is easier than that so it is no wonder that De Lie is the main favourite.

Aubais – France – cycling – -Arnaud De Lie (BEL – Lotto Dstny) pictured during Etoile de Besseges 2023 – 53rd Edition – stage 2 from Bagard – Aubais 169.6 km – Photo: Tommaso Pelagalli/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Who can challenge him? The defending champion Alexander Kristoff started his season poorly in Volta a Valenciana after being dropped on the only sprinters’ stage, which included two hard and quite long 5-6% climbs. That stage was won by Biniam Girmay who climbs very well for a sprinter but he was removed from the Almeria start list at the last moment. Intermarché – Circus – Wanty’s leader will be either Niccolo Bonifazio or Mike Teunissen.

Alto de la Cueva Santa – Spain – cycling – Alexander Kristoff (NOR / Uno-X Pro Cycling Team) pictured during Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana 2023 – 74th Edition – stage 4 from Burriana – Alto de la Cueva Santa 181.6 km – Photo: Szymon Gruchalski/Cor Vos © 2023

Going back to Uno-X, besides Kristoff, they sent also Rasmus Tiller and Saudi Tour stage winner Søren Wærenskjold. The Norwegian team and Intermarché might use the multiple sprinters tactic to gain as many UCI points as possible as Arkea-Samsic did in the early 2022 season. The winner gets 200 UCI points and there are plenty of points available for everyone in the Top 10.

One of the teams interested in keeping a very high tempo in the mountains must be INEOS. Their leader for the sprint will be Ben Turner, who on the previous day won a harder one-day race in Murcia. The Clock climbs very well as he proved in Tour de Hongrie, where he launched Eddie Dunbar on the final climb with two kilometres to go. INEOS have sent a versatile squad including Leo Hayter, Brandon Rivera, Pavel Sivakov, Luke Rowe, Kim Heiduk and Michael Leonard. Definitely the strongest climbing team in the race that might do huge damage. Clasica de Almeria since 2018 has been always won by a sprinter (Kristoff, Nizzolo, Ackermann and Ewan) but this year might be different if INEOS rides full gas up the climbs, as they have the horse power to maintain a gap in the flatter final two hours of the race. Even if everyone is together Turner will still have an advantage as the fatigue will influence the sprinting ability of his rivals.

Ben Turner (GBR – INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during Vuelta Ciclista a Murcia 2023 – 43rd Edition – San Javier – Alto Parque Torres 194,7km – Photo: Luis Angel Gomez/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Jordi Meeus finished 3rd in Murcia and, with Marco Haller and Nils Politt in his lead-out, he is one of the favourites. Movistar sent both their star sprinters Fernando Gaviria and Ivan Garcia Cortina as there might be different scenarios and Cortina might be strong enough to survive the climbs if a team like INEOS full sends and Gaviria is dropped.

Israel Premier Tech will definitely want UCI points from the 2021 winner Giacomo Nizzolo as they fight for the wild cards for the next season. Bryan Coquard, Jason Tesson, Juan Sebastian Molano, Max Walscheid, Paul Penhoet, Daniel Mclay, Cees Bol and Matteo Moschetti will be some of the other faster guys in the peloton.

Prediciton

Arnaud De Lie is lethal in one-day races with at least 4000 kilojoules before the finish. Lotto DSTNY did not send the strongest supporting squad to Almeria but De Lie is strong enough to win without huge help as he proved already in Etoile de Besseges. Il Toro climbs well and his sprint after fatigue is great where he can push close to his peak watts. Bad positioning from which he has no team to help him recover is the main reason he can lose this race.

Denia – Spain – cycling – De Lie Arnaud (BEL) of Lotto Dstny pictured during a photo session prior the 2023 Cycling season on November 22, 2022 in – Photo: Peter de Voecht/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

Gaia Realini Pushes High W/Kg On Jebel Hafeet | UAE Tour 2023 Stage 3

byKārlis Ozols
February 12, 2023
3 minute read
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The young Italian star, Gaia Realini, supplied one of the most dominating climbing performances in Women’s WorldTour races, dropping every rider from her wheel except for teammate and Trek-Segafredo leader Elisa Longo Borgini. Realini did not end up winning the stage, as Trek-Segafredo directors ordered Longo Borgini to cross the finish-line first, but UAE Tour Stage 3 will be remembered for Realini’s huge performance on Jebel Hafeet.

UAE Tour Stage 3 profile by La Flamme Rouge

It was the classic unipuerto stage finishing up Jebel Hafeet (10.8 km, 6.7%) – a stage we are all familiar with from Pogačar and Adam Yates’ battles over the last few years in the men’s UAE Tour. There were huge crosswinds and echelon action before the final climb, which split the peloton into smaller groups. One of the best climbers in the world, Marta Cavalli, lost 3:30 minutes before the climb even started as well as German champion Liane Lippert starting the climb a minute back in the second group.

The situation before Jebel Hafeet

Lippert tried her best to close the gap to the first group once the climb started, and was making some headway during the first 10 minutes. With 7.5km to go, before Gaia Realini started her incredible pull, Lippert’s gap according to TV had reduced to 26 seconds. However once Realini hit the front, she immediately made an impact and shredded the group.

Realini starting her turn

The Italian climber dropped everyone except her teammate Elisa Longo Borghini. DSM rider Esmée Peperkamp was the last one to lose contact with the Trek-Segafredo duo with 5.2 km to go.

Realini drops Esmée Peperkamp

Both Trek-Segafredo riders finished together with Longo Borghini taking a spectacular win and becoming the new race leader. The final stage will be pancake flat and only crosswinds or a crash might prevent Trek-Segafredo from double victory overall. Realini despite doing the most of the work and dropping everyone except her team leader was not allowed to win.

Jebel Hafeet – UAE – cycling – Elisa Longo Borghini (ITA – Trek – Segafredo) – Gaia Realini (ITA – Trek – Segafredo) pictured during UAE Tour Women 2023 – 1st Edition – stage 3 – from Hazza bin Zayed Stadium – Jebel Hafeet (107 km) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2023

Despite Longo Borghini stating in the post-race interview that she wanted to give the stage to her young compatriot, weirdly enough the Trek-Segafredo team directors decided to give the victory to Longo Borghini, who has won many big races such as Paris-Roubaix, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Strade Bianche and twice Trofeo Alfredo Binda. This result will not massively impact her palmares, meanwhile, 21 year old Realini did her breakout performance and has zero career victories. With her finishing first she also would have become the new race leader. However Realini should not wait long for her first career pro victory as she is clearly elite on long steep climbs even if they are sparsely featured in the women’s calendar.

Silvia Persico finished third, losing 71 seconds to the Trek-Segafredo duo. Lippert blew up and lost 2:25 minutes after starting Jebel Hafeet with a minute’s disadvantage.

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Realini’s performance was truly spectacular. She did based on our estimations 4.75 ᵉw/kg for 34:50 min, which is 0.10 ᵉw/kg more than what Longo Borgini did as she drafted for most of the climb. As our calculations are normalised for a 60 kg rider, it means Realini did over 5 w/kg as she is significantly lighter than our etalon weight of 60kg.

In the graph below you can see many of the recent top climbing performances from women’s cycling in our database. Realini’s performance might not look great but it is being compared to other all-time great climbing performances, most of them coming from Annemiek van Vleuten. Crosswinds before Jebel Hafeet also fatigued the riders which made the stage much harder.

On Trek-Segafredo's webpage, Realini's height is listed at 150 centimetres, which means she has to spend a lot more energy on the flat sections, especially in crosswinds, compared to bigger riders. According to Realini's W'balance graphic (Anaerobic Work Capacity) in her Strava file, she did a harder effort before Jebel Hafeet to try to hold onto the first group than she actually did on the climb. In the hardest part on the flat section, she did 221 watts (229 NP) for 8:33 min. On Jebel Hafeet her top 20-minute power was 213 watts.

Gaia Realini UAE Tour Stage 3 2023 data

Realini, as well as sixth place climber Eider Merino, would certainly benefit from more 20+ minute climbs with at least a 7% gradient being included in the women's calendar. The Tour de France Femmes stage on the Tourmalet or the Mont Ventoux Challenge should be big targets for her this year. After this huge performance against other World Tour riders we cannot wait to see how she develops in the coming years.

Tour of Oman 2023 Preview – Climbing Paradise

byKārlis Ozols
February 10, 2023
4 minute read
One comment

The Tour of Oman 2022 will feature the hardest overall parcours the race has ever seen, with four of the five stages finishing up a climb. Pure W/Kg climbers like Jan Hirt or Louis Meintjes will be happy with 10%+ gradient finishes and consistency throughout the week will be very important as every stage finish is hard.

Provisional Start List

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Stage 1

The easiest stage of the race is the first, culminating in a slight uphill finish. This might be the only stage where sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Tim Merlier, Max Kanter, Pascal Ackermann, and Alan Banaszek have a real shot at winning because the following four stages all include a hard uphill finish. Despite this being a relatively easy finish, there is a 2 kilometre 4% shallow climb cresting 8 kilometres from the line. This should not be a problem for sprinters except for making everyone more fatigued before the 700 metre uphill finish that is around 3% gradient.

Tour of Oman Stage 1 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

If Pascal Ackermann is in any decent form (which he was not in during Saudi Tour) he should be going well on this finish as he can get over hills better than many of the other sprinters and as shown in Tour de Pologne last year, he is still powerful on a short uphill finish. Cavendish and Merlier will debut for their new teams in the new hilly one-day race Muscat Classic but this might be their first and only real chance to test their legs in a sprint from the peloton.

Muscat – Oman- cycling – Merlier Tim (BEL) of Soudal Quick-Step and Mark Cavendish pictured during Media Activities ahead of the 2023 Tour of Oman UCI ProSeries cycling race,in Muscat on February 9, 2023 in Muscat, Oman – Photo: Vincent Kalut/PN/Cor Vos © 2023

Stage 2

The first stage for climbers ends with the frequently used Quravyat hill (2.6km, 7.1%). The stage will not be the easiest as there are 2000 climbing metres before the puncheur’s finish.

Tour of Oman Stage 2 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Quravyat is not a regular climb as there is a flatter section in the last kilometre before the 10%+ sector in the end. There should not be big gaps but it is the first hard uphill finish and will be clear to see which climbers is in good shape.

In the 2022 race, Jan Hirt attacked early on the flatter section but was overtaken in the final 100 metres by Uno-X Danish climber Anthon Charmig. The Norwegian team will take the start in Oman again this year but without Charmig.

Alexey Lutsenko won on this climb in 2019 and will be the Astana leader in 2023. Ulissi, Hirt, and Vansevenant might also do well. It will be curious to see how Cofidis’ Axel Zingle will perform on such a climb. This might be too hard for him but he performed very well in Mallorca’s one-day races and should be in decent shape.

Stage 3

The Tour of Oman organisers really like uphill finishes this year and Stage 3 ends with Jabal Haat (4.6 km, 7.7%) – the first time it is included in this race.

Tour of Oman Stage 3 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The 7.7% average gradient might be misleading as the last 1.6 kilometres average more than 12% and there is a false flat kilometre in the first 5 minutes of the climb. Lightweight climbers like Jan Hirt, Ivan Ramiro Sosa, and Louis Meintjes will benefit from the steep gradients as they are close to 60 kg and have performed on steep gradients in the past.

Stage 4

The final 20 kilometres of stage 4 are reminiscent of Italian autumn classics with repeated punchy climbs close together. The final 30 minutes of the race will be hard as, attacks might fly from teams with multiple GC riders and the final goes up Yitti Hills (1.7 km, 5.9%).

Tour of Oman Stage 4 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The first kilometre of the climb is 7.6% but the last 700 metres are shallow – potentially bringing a rider like Axel Zingle into play. Instead of the wet descents many of these riders endured in Mallorca, they will likely race this circuit in 25-30C heat – perhaps young star Cian Uijtdebroeks can take his first pro victory here in Oman.

Stage 5

The Queen stage of Oman. If there are no crosswinds, there will be very low kilojoules before the pure climbing effort on the Jabal Al Akhdhar climb (5.7 km, 10.37%).

Tour of Oman Stage 5 2023 profile by La Flamme Rouge

It is a very hard climb, with the final 1.7 kilometres are the steepest with gradients going way above 10%+ for extended periods. The race leader Fausto Masnada in the 2022 edition cracked hard in the middle and lost almost two minutes to Jan Hirt, who eventually won the GC.

The climbing record is owned by Rafael Valls who climbed it in 18 minutes and 28 seconds in 2015. Valls produced 6.62 ᵉw/kg. Jan Hirt in 2022 was 71 seconds slower than Valls but the Czech climber attacked late with Rein Taaramae doing a monster pull. Hirt’s time would be way better if his power output was more steady but he saved everything for the steep part at the end as it is way easier to drop competitors on steep gradients due to the significantly reduced drafting effect.

Jabal al Akhdhar climbing times and w/kg estimations by Naichaca

Tour of Oman is a February race but Chris Froome (2014) and Rafael Valls (2015) reached the Grand Tour’s winner (yellow) trendline in the past editions. For the Sky era, these definitely were very high ᵉw/kg performances and at least the Top 20 best pure ᵉw/kg performance in Froome’s career.

Contenders

There are four hard uphill finishes and consistency will be the key. Jan Hirt (2022) and Alexey Lutsenko (2018, 2019) have both won this race in the past. Lutsenko usually performs well on easy unipuerto stages and has done well in early season races throughout his career. He won his first race in 2022 - the first edition of the Spanish gravel race in Jaen.

Al Jabal Al Akhdar - Oman - wielrennen - cycling - cyclisme - radsport - Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ - Astana Pro Team) pictured during the10th Tour of Oman (2.HC) - Stage 5 from Samayil to Al Jabal Al Akhdar (Green Mountain) (152KM) - photo LB/RB/Cor Vos © 2019

Movistar climber Ivan Ramiro Sosa usually gets his best results on low kilojoule races with a steep uphill finish and the heat should suit him. But he is not the most consistent rider in the world and might have an off-day.

Cian Uijtdebroeks is one of the best biggest talents in cycling and is only 19 years old. In 2023 he will almost certainly improve and his 2022 performances in Tour de l'Avenir and against pro riders in UCI races were promising. We cannot wait to see how Uijtdebroeks will perform on these steep w/kg climbs. He has not won a pro race yet but it would not be a huge surprise if he pulls off something in Oman. Bora-Hansgrohe has sent a good climbing team with Emanuel Buchmann, Giovanni Aleotti, Ben Zwiehoff and Uijtdebroeks. Ide Schelling and Florian Lipowitz are also decent at climbing.

Louis Meintjes, Rein Taaramae, Davide Formolo, Diego Ulissi, Fausto Masnada, Cristian Rodriguez, Geoffrey Bouchard, Jesus Herrada, Matteo Jorgenson, Carlos Verona, Roger Adria, Eduardo Sepulveda and Sylvain Moniquet are other riders who might perform on hard climbs. Bouchard has always performed well in the UAE Tour. His results on Jebel Hafeet have been consistently improving - 18th in 2019, 26th and 12th in 2020, 10th in 2021 and 9th in 2022.

Prediction

It is an early-season race and it is very hard to predict who will perform. Intermarché - Circus - Wanty has started the season powerfully and Taaramae after Rwanda's high-altitude camp might arrive in great shape. Meintjes performs well on steep climbs but I will pick Cian Uijtebroeks. It is crazy to pick a 19-year-old and the pure w/kg climbs with 10%+ gradients might not suit him as well as 7-8% climbs but Uijtdebroeks is a huge talent. He is unlikely to win the Tour of Oman and will not be one of the main favourites, probably an outsider but he is very likely to take a big leap in 2023. Maybe not in an early-season race but who knows?

Kārlis Ozols (@CyclingGraphs)

Muscat - Oman- cycling - Uijtdebroeks Cian (BEL) of BORA - hansgrohe pictured during Media Activities ahead of the 2023 Tour of Oman UCI ProSeries cycling race,in Muscat on February 9, 2023 in Muscat, Oman - Photo: Vincent Kalut/PN/Cor Vos © 2023