The Latest

Latest News

Geraint Thomas Returns to Top Shape Before the Tour

byKārlis Ozols
June 18, 2022
4 minute read
No comments

Geraint Thomas, at age 36, still has something left in the tank. The 2018 Tour de France winner finished 2nd from the GC riders in Tour de Suisse stage 7, practically winning the GC as the last stage is a flat time-trial, and his closest rivals in the GC, Sergio Higuita (two seconds ahead) and Jakob Fulgsang (17 seconds behind), are not known for their time-trial ability.

Tour de Suisse stage 7 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Stage 7 finished with the steep Malbun climb (12.6 km, 8.73%) in Liechtenstein. The climbing level in the Tour de Suisse has not been as high as expected, as both the pre-race favourites Dani Martinez and Remco Evenepoel were not close to their peak levels and Bora leader Aleksandr Vlasov had to abandon due to contracting COVID. With Thomas a second behind Fuglsang on GC ahead of the pivotal final stage time trial, INEOS just needed to control the tempo on Malbun, setting a steady pace for Thomas in the hot conditions.

akob Fuglsang (Denmark / Team Israel Premier Tech) – Remco Evenepoel (Belgium / Team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) pictured during 85th Tour de Suisse (2.UWT) stage 7 from Ambri to Malbun (194.6KM – Photo: Vincent Kalut/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

Other teams did not dare to challenge INEOS. Bora-Hansgrohe had the best climber of the day, Sergio Higuita, who was 3rd in the GC before the stage. His teammates, Maximilian Schachmann and Felix Großschartner where holding in the group for a long time, but did not fully commit for Higuita as they were probably trying to finish in the Top 10 in the GC themselves. Schachmann paced at the front for a brief moment with 7 km to go, but after Evenepoel’s short attack with Fuglsang on his wheel, INEOS took to pacing again, with Martinez’ presence likely a major deterrence for early attacks, as he was able to do a 5 kilometre pull.

Evenepoel attacks with Fuglsang on his wheel

After Martinez was done, Higuita attacked from the reduced group with 1.7km to go. Thomas did everything perfectly and just drafted Fuglsang, knowing he would take a lot of time in the upcoming time-trial. Thomas is an ITT specialist and feels more comfortable with a steady pace and then his customary final 500 metre surge.

Higuita attacks, Fuglsang trying to catch him with Thomas in his draft

Higuita beat Thomas at the finish only by 11 seconds after Thomas dropped Fuglsang, the latter of whom slowed down considerably at the end and lost 29 seconds. Higuita became the GC leader with Thomas being 2 seconds behind, which means he will use the INEOS skinsuit for the final time-trial, which will be 25.6 kilometres long and avoid any press obligations this evening.

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

Watts

The tempo on Malbun was pretty high, with Higuita doing 5.96 w/kg for 39 minutes. On the previous stage on Moosalp, the GC riders went way slower, doing 5.52 w/kg for 52 minutes and 19 seconds in very hot conditions.

Malbun times and w/kg calculations by Naichaca

It was one of the best performances for Thomas in recent years, considering the big heat in Tour de Suisse. This year’s Tour de France suits time-trial specialists and northern classics competent GC men, so Thomas might be the best shot for INEOS with Dani Martinez as a co-leader. There is a big question mark over Adam Yates, who tested positive for Covid-19 in Tour de Suisse.

Lanterne Rouge x CyclingGraphs – best climbing performance of Geraint Thomas

The performance is at a lower level than Roglic, Vingegaard and O’Connor on Solaison, but the Dauphiné, although not ideal conditions for top climbing performances, was not near the sweltering conditions experienced by the riders in the Tour de Suisse this week.

How Much did the Heat Affect the Riders?

Evenepoel seemed to struggle in the hot conditions in Tour de Suisse, with temperatures being over +30C degrees and Quickstep stating that he was not racing with illness. Evenepoel showed the first weakness on stage 5, where he got dropped on the hilly parcours, which was similar to Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the race he won in April. The Belgian struggled also on the longer climbs, dropping early, despite a slow and steady tempo compared to Tour of Norway stage 3, where Evenepoel produced 6.5 w/kg for 30 minutes and beat such riders as Tobias Johannesen and Esteban Chaves by more than 80 seconds, both of whom later produced good performances in Criterium du Dauphiné and Mont Ventoux Challenge.

Malbun – Swiss – cycling – Remco Evenepoel (Belgium / Team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) pictured during 85th Tour de Suisse (2.UWT) stage 7 from Ambri to Malbun (194.6KM – Photo: Vincent Kalut/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

Many big riders in Tour de Suisse like Aleksandr Vlasov, Adam Yates, and Tom Pidcock tested positive for Covid-19, but not Remco. The reason why Evenepoel struggled so hard, maybe, is that he is relatively worse in the heat compared to riders like Fuglsang or Thomas. According to the Jake Nichols article about The Impact of Temperature on Relative Power Output, the optimal temperature for cycling is 13C, which was the temperature range seen in the mountain stages in the Tour of Norway 2022 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2021 and 2022. Of course, every rider responds differently to different temperatures and so the graph below is not a one-size fits all for a rider’s watts drop off. The most extreme case might be Portuguese Conti team riders who are able to do high level performances even in 40C heat.

Graph from Jake Nichols article linked above

Given the temperatures in the 30s in the Tour de Suisse mountain stages this week, either Thomas is extremely resistant to the heat or his shape is at his peak ever level and his climbing performances are even more impressive. Unfortunately for Thomas, climbing speeds have progressed significantly since 2018 when he won the Tour de France, and he and INEOS will need huge time gains in the tricky first week of this year’s Tour if he is to even finish on the podium.

Lotto’s Bull Charges to Safety as Mas’ crashes Scare an Angry Movistar | Relegation Battle

byRaúl Banqueri
June 12, 2022
10 minute read
4 comments

We have reached the halfway point of the season and the relegation battle is tighter and more exciting than ever in 2022. The upward trajectory of Lotto Soudal and, to a lesser extent, Israel – Premier Tech is generating a lot of nervousness among other teams at risk such as EF Education-Easypost and BikeExchange-Jayco, who see themselves closer and closer to the relegation zone.

The Past Two Weeks

As you can see in the graph, Lotto Soudal is now nipping at the heels of BikeExchange and Education First, who are hovering just above the relegation zone. Back in mid-March this year, the gap was around 1200 points between Lotto and BikeExchange, with it now being a meagre 220 points (a margin easily closed by one rider in a .Pro race). Lotto has also added hundreds of points more than Movistar and Cofidis, leaving five teams in a range of less than 900 points with four months to go in a UCI calendar replete with bountiful races. After Bardet’s abandonment in the Giro and the lack of scoring in the home ZLM Tour, DSM is treading water whilst the other team’s below them continue to score.

The current scenario is ideal for a very exciting fight in the months of late August, September and October, when there is a high concentration of races. Unfortunately for Lotto-Soudal, the Benelux Tour, which coincided with La Vuelta and the Tour of Britain, has been cancelled this season. This is good news for teams like Movistar and BikeExchange, who have a paucity of top level riders who can score points, so overlapping races presents them with difficulties. We reiterate our comments in earlier articles, that more important than rider talent itself in the hunt for points is the participation in the races that provide the best opportunity for points – something that Lotto-Soudal adopted from the beginning of this year and certain other teams are only taking note of now.

Lotto Soudal has been the protagonist team of the last two weeks, thanks to the two victories of the impressive El Toro Arnaud de Lie in 1-day races in Belgium. However, the Belgian team is managing to score with quite a few riders at the same time. Climber Steff Cras scored 90 points between his 5th place in the Mercan’Tour Classic and 14th in the Dauphiné, while Andreas Kron scored 80 points with his podium finishes in the GP Aargau and the first stage of the Tour de Suisse. Even Caleb Ewan rode last Sunday’s minor race Elfstedenronde Brugge, scoring 85 points for his 2nd place, almost twice as many points as in his Giro participation.

Arnaud De Lie (Belgium / Team Lotto Soudal) pictured during Ronde van Limburg (1.1) a one day race between Hasselt and Tongeren (202.6 KM) – Photo: Dion Kerckhoffs/Cor Vos © 2022

Israel has been able to put its bad feelings from the Giro d’Italia behind it, especially with the double of Fuglsang and Woods in the Mercan’Tour Classic. But the rider who has contributed the most to the team in the last two weeks has been Nizzolo, scoring 165 points in the four Belgian classics in which he has participated, with an outstanding 2nd place in the Heistse Pijl. The Italian sprinter has not been able to shine in the WorldTour this season after an ill-timed crash in Milano-Sanremo, but he could still be very useful for Israel by basing his calendar on smaller one-day races. That is also the strategy of the team with Sep Vanmarcke, who has deleted the Tour de France from his calendar to ride more one-day races in Belgium, Wielerflits reports.

Cofidis has overtaken Movistar in the last fortnight, although its margin with the relegation zone has diminished. As usual, the team has continued to exploit the continental calendar, with Consonni’s 2nd place in the Ronde van Limburg and Jesús Herrada’s 4th place in the Mercan’Tour Classic being the best results. The man who is scoring points most consistently is Belgian Piet Allegaert, who has already taken part in 24 one-day races so far this season. Although he has only been on the podium once, he has accumulated 478 UCI points, more than any DSM or EF rider.

Source – Procyclingstats.com

For its part, Movistar has again lamented a fall of Enric Mas in Dauphiné, where he should have finished in the top five of the general classification. Between his crashes in Tirreno, Itzulia and Dauphiné, Movistar have missed out on around 600 UCI points, which would have given them a lot of peace of mind in the relegation battle. Verona’s stage win in the Dauphiné lifted the team’s spirits, but their situation is becoming increasingly dangerous and nervousness is evident in the team. Speaking to Cycling News, general manager Eusebio Unzué described the UCI points system as “madness” and “unfair” as well as Carlos Verona deriding the points system as a “disgrace” on Facebook after his victory .

Like Movistar, DSM is seeing their gap to the relegation zone shrink rapidly. They have only scored 18 points in the last fortnight, missing a very good opportunity in the ZLM Tour, where there were only 3 WorldTeams. Two specialists like Degenkolb and Welsford failed to make it into the first echelon on the key day of the race and left virtually empty-handed. Despite being a Dutch team, they hardly run any minor races in neighbouring Belgium, but they will probably have to extend their calendar at the end of the season if they do not want to struggle in the relegation battle.

John Degenkolb (Germany / Team DSM) pictured during 33rd ZLM Tour (2.Pro) stage 5 between Made and Rijsbergen (168KM) – Photo: Dion Kerckhoffs/Cor Vos © 2022

However, the two teams in the most dangerous situation remain EF and BikeExchange. EF has overtaken BikeExchange thanks to the 250 points from the double top 10 in the Dauphiné general classification of Chaves and Guerreiro, but Vaughters’ team has not participated in any race on the continental circuit in the last fortnight. On the other hand, BikeExchange continues to suffer from a lack of depth in the team, almost incapable of scoring points without Yates, Matthews or Groenewegen. Moreover, Groenewegen would have been much more useful in the Belgian classics than in a Dauphiné without flat stages, where he could not compete in any sprint for the victory.

As every fortnight, we share this interactive graphic where you can see which 10 riders contribute points for each team at risk. By clicking on the name of the team, a graph opens with the points of each rider of that particular team. As you can see below, 20 year old neo-pro De Lie, is the highest points scorer of any rider on the teams at risk.

2023 Wildcards

In the fight for the 2023 WorldTour invitations, decided by the 2022 annual ranking, Lotto Soudal and TotalEnergies remain in the two privileged positions that give access to the wildcards for the entire 2023 WorldTour calendar.

Despite TotalEnergies’ two stage victories in the Dauphiné, Israel has managed to cut the margin by almost 300 points in the last two weeks. The French team will have to maintain its high level until the end of the season to secure the 2023 wildcards, as Israel seem to have changed course to focus much more on accumulating points as compared to earlier in the season. The contribution of Peter Sagan, their star signing, would be very useful for them as well.

The Next 2 Weeks (13 Jun – 26 Jun)

This week will be dominated by stage races, with four tours taking place simultaneously, plus the one-day Mont Ventoux Dénivelé Challenge. The following week it will be the turn of the national championships. On the other hand, the Tour de Langkawi (2.Pro), which was scheduled for this week, has been postponed from 11 to 18 October, so it will be the last race of the year, along with the Tour de Guangxi (which is perhaps less likely to take place).

Races:

  1. Tour de Suisse (2.UWT, 12/06 – 19/06) ALL
  2. Mont Ventoux Dénivelé Challenge (1.1, 14/06) (Israel, EF, Movistar, Cofidis)
  3. Baloise Belgium Tour (2.Pro, 15/06 – 19/06) (Israel, Lotto, Cofidis, DSM)
  4. Tour of Slovenia (2.Pro, 15/06 – 19/06) (BikeExchange)
  5. La Route d’Occitanie (2.1, 16/06 – 19/06) (Israel, EF, Movistar, Cofidis)
  6. National Championships, ITTs and Road Races (22/06 – 26/06) ALL

The Tour de Suisse will be the most important race of the fortnight, with several general classification contenders among the teams at risk. Israel needs a great general classification from Fuglsang to stay close to salvation, Lotto has Kron in very good form, while EF goes with Powless, Urán and Carthy, although they lost a bit of time in the opening stage.

Rigoberto Uran (Colombia / Team EF Education – Nippo) pictured during 61st Itzulia Basque Country (2.UWT) stage 4 between Vitoria-Gasteiz and Zamudio (185.6KM) – Photo: Miwa iijima/Cor Vos © 2022

The Mont Ventoux + Route d’Occitanie double is an interesting combination to score points and prepare for the Tour de France. Israel has requested an invitation at the last minute for La Route d’Occitanie and in theory Michael Woods will ride both races. Also Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) has added these two races to his programme at the last minute, under pressure to get UCI points. EF has a good option on Mont Ventoux with its climber Esteban Chaves, who arrives in top form after the Dauphiné.

Lotto Soudal will focus on the Belgium Tour with Ewan, De Lie, Campenaerts and Wellens supposed to ride, while BikeExchange will only race the Tour of Slovenia in the continental circuit, where Sobrero defends last year’s podium. We are quite surprised to see an absence of other WorldTour teams at Slovenia, which offers more points than Occitanie and arguably has a weaker GC startlist in terms of depth. Of course, beating Pogacar in his home race in Slovenia is implausible, but even fourth on GC offers 100 points for just five days of racing. Even if Simon Yates was not in top shape, the race offered him a chance to prepare for the Tour de France as well as possibly finish in the top 3 on GC.

National Championships

The round of National Championships in European countries will also be held prior to the Tour de France. The UCI establishes two categories for awarding points in national championships. According to the UCI regulations:

“Category A corresponds to the national championships of nations that had at least one rider starting the road race of the UCI Road world championships in the previous season. Category B corresponds to the national championships of all nations not included in Category A.”

The difference in UCI points is that the A national championships award 100 points to the winner of the road race and 50 to the winner of the ITT, while the B national championships award 50 points to the winner of the road race and 25 to the winner of the ITT. However, almost all national championships of countries that have riders in the WorldTour are Category A, so in the end the same UCI points are awarded for example for the Estonian or Latvian Championships as for the Belgian or French Championships, although their levels are very different.

Among the teams in the relegation zone, Lotto Soudal will take most of its riders to the Belgian Championships, with multiple chances to win. Elsewhere, Kron will also be one of the favourites at the Danish Championships. Israel, meanwhile, can use the Israeli championships to score good points, but then their Israeli riders will have to finish in the team’s top 10 at the end of the season for their points to be useful. Nizzolo in Italy, Fuglsang in Denmark and Neilands in Latvia are other options at the national championships.

In the last two years of COVID, Movistar have preferred not to take their Tour de France squad to the national championships, which takes away many of their potential options for victories. If they maintain that decision this season, they will not take riders like Gorka Izagirre, García Cortina or Aranburu to the Spanish Championships or Oliveira to the Portuguese Championships. At least Alejandro Valverde will be sure to be in the Spanish Championships, as he is not part of the Tour de France bubble.

Alejandro Valverde (ESP – Movistar) – Gorka Izagirre (ESP – Bahrain – Merida) – Omar Fraile (ESP – Astana Pro Team) pictured during Spanish Championship roadrace 2018 – photo LG/LB/RB/Cor Vos © 2018

On the other hand, Cofidis usually takes the national championships very seriously, and this year they will have good options in the French, but especially in the Spanish with Ion Izagirre, Rubén Fernández and the Herrada brothers, as well as in the German with Walscheid and Geschke.

EF, the world’s most international cycling team, will be able to participate and score points in up to 14 national championships, although it will have very few riders in each of them. Their best chances will be Valgren and Cort in Denmark, Bissegger in Switzerland, Bettiol in Italy, Guerreiro in Portugal, Eiking in Norway and Healy in Ireland.

As the national championships in Australia and New Zealand have already taken place, a large part of the BikeExchange squad will not compete, but they also have good opportunities with Groenewegen in the Dutch championship, Sobrero in the Italian, Mezgec in the Slovenian and Kangert in the Estonian.

We will be back just before the Tour de France with our fortnightly update. An element of this relegation battle we will explore will be the ‘points velocity’ of certain teams and whether we can expect particular teams to finish the season strongly, with their top riders having an abundance of ‘in-form’ race days saved for the back half of the season. It is possible that the fast starters have burned through the riders too quickly but equally possible that points were more easily scored in January and February before many teams began to take the relegation risk seriously, with points being much harder to come by in September.

As always, make sure to let us know on twitter if you have any thoughts on the article or what teams could be doing differently – if you enjoyed it, share it with a friend (or a Directeur Sportif in need).

Editor’s Note: This article was prepared by Raúl Banqueri with contributions from the Editor, Patrick Broe. The cover artwork is by Louemans. Raúl Banqueri is a Spanish journalist who has been tracking the UCI points system for a number of years, with the UCI often correcting their ranking to accord with his.

Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič Destroy Solaison Climbing Record

byKārlis Ozols
June 12, 2022
4 minute read
5 comments

Jumbo-Visma climbing performances in Criterium du Dauphiné were strong. On the hardest climb of the race, Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič set a blistering time up Plateau de Solaison, beating the previous record for the climb set by Jakob Fuglsang in the 2017 Dauphiné by almost two minutes. Vingegaard this year has improved his consistency and climbing ability and might be even stronger than Roglič, who seemed to struggle in his wheel on stage 8 and did not pull as much as the young Dane.

Criterium du Dauphine stage 8 2022 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The stage was not easy and it included multiple climbs before the steep mountain top finish Plateau de Solaison (11.4 km, 8.9%). Matteo Jorgenson finished almost 5 minutes back to Vingegaard. His power data before the final climb suggest that the stage was medium difficulty before Plateau de Solaison. 13.21kj/kg/h for 3h31min.

Jumbo-Visma used the Dauphiné as a training race for the upcoming Tour de France and their biggest competitor here was Ben O’Connor, who finished 4th last year in the Tour. O’Connor was not a threat to the Jumbo duo, but he also put out his best pure w/kg climbing performances of his career on Solaison.

Steven Kruijswijk undoubtedly earned his spot for the Tour by doing an incredible pull from 10 km to 5.4 km to go on the climb, reducing the peloton to a handful of riders, dropping even Jack Haig and Esteban Chaves. Kruijswijk might be back to his 2019 level when he podiumed at the Tour de France.

Steven Kruijswijk (Netherlands / Team Jumbo-Visma) – Jonas Vingegaard (Denmark / Team Jumbo-Visma) pictured during Criterium du Dauphine (2.UWT) stage 8 between Saint-Alban-Leysse and Plateau de Salaison (138.8KM) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

After Kruijswijk finished his pull, Vingegaard attacked. Jumbo-Visma probably tried their strategy for Tour de France where Vingegaard will presumably play an important role in winning the race as a second option on GC. In the same situation in the Tour de France, Roglič would probably not follow his teammate and would sit in the wheel of other GC contender, but here in the Dauphiné, the TJV duo knew they were so superior that they could drop the entire field, including O’Connor, from their wheels.

Surprisingly, Roglič was struggling to hold the wheel of his teammate, did not take very many pulls, and with 1.1 km to go he was distanced by a few metres by Vingegaard. If Roglič would have felt stronger than Vingegaard, one would expect him to have shared in the pulling duties slightly more at the end.  

Jonas distancing Primož for a brief moment

Vingegaard and Roglič produced one of the best performances of 2022, smashing Plateau de Solaison record by almost two minutes.

Vingegaard did 6.32 w/kg for 34:34, which according to our estimations is 0.05 w/kg higher than Roglič because he was drafting much more, which even on these gradients makes a difference. Surprisingly, O’Connor lost by only 15 seconds despite doing almost all of the last 5km on his own.

Plateau de Solaison w/kg calculations and times by Naichaca

Results powered by FirstCycling.com

Best climbing performance by Vingegaard

This was by far the best climbing performance of Jonas Vingegaard’s career. He is 25 and still improving compared to 2021, where he finished 2nd in the Tour. Vingegaard also did massive pulls in the stage 3 and stage 7 finishing climbs, working as a domestique for Wout van Aert and Primož Roglič. In stage 7 on Vaujany he did 6.76 w/kg for 13:03, setting up Roglič’s attack – his best ever short climbing effort.

Lanterne Rouge x Cycling Graphs – best climbing performances of Jonas Vingegaard

Although Roglič looked in difficulty in some moments today, he did his best climbing performance in the 30-45 minute range, of his career. On the Velefique climb however, he did less watts than today but it was extremely hot in that stage and tactically he was content to let Enric Mas pace him to the finish. Given that Roglič himself said “there is some more work to be done” before the Tour, it is possible that he still has some weight to lose in Tignes before they line up in Copenhagen at the start of July.

Lanterne Rouge x Cycling Graphs – best climbing performances of Primož Roglič

Should Pogačar be Scared?

Vingegaard’s performance on Plateau de Solaison could be compared to Tadej Pogačar’s impressive win on Prati di Tivo last year in Tirreno-Adriatico, which was in better weather conditions for producing a top performance. Pogačar went full-gas on that day and dropped Bernal and Simon Yates. Here in the Dauphiné stage 8, the conditions were hotter by almost 20C degrees and it is hard to say how well Pogačar would perform in hot conditions as he showed weakness in heat, when Vingegaard dropped him on Ventoux. If Pogačar has not improved by a lot since 2021, Roglič and Vingegaard duo might be a tough challenge for the Slovenian, especially if this year the Tour will be hot, and not cool and rainy like it was in the Alps last year. It seems plausible that either of the Jumbo-Visma riders could win the GC, as after the Dauphiné, Vingegaard’s stocks have skyrocketed.

Lanterne Rouge x Cycling Graphs – best climbing performances of Tadej Pogačar vs Jonas Vingegaard Dauphine 2022

Filippo Ganna vs Wout van Aert in Time-Trials

byKārlis Ozols
June 9, 2022
4 minute read
2 comments

Filippo Ganna and Wout van Aert are arguably the best time trial riders in recent years, almost never off the podium in time trials of all varieties. However since August 2020, Ganna has won 14 out of 20 time-trials, even achieving an 8 time-trial streak win, including beating Van Aert twice in the World Championships.

However how does Ganna fare head to head against Wout van Aert outside of the long course one-day World Championship time trial? In their career Van Aert and Ganna have dueled against each other in a time-trial only on 6 occasions, the Italian winning five times. The only time Ganna lost to Van Aert against the clock was in 2021 Tirreno-Adriatico, where Ganna seemingly could not produce peak watts after a hard week.

Filippo Ganna vs Wout van Aert Head to Head in ITT (source: ProCyclingStats.com)

Although both are always really close to each other, Ganna in the most important races like in World Championships and Olympic Games has been a little bit faster than Van Aert, who finished 2nd in both World Championships in 2020 and 2021 and has doubted if he should challenge Ganna for the rainbow bands in 2022 Wollongong time-trial to the detriment of his road race prospects.

Ganna vs Van Aert head to head in time-trials

  • Criterium du Dauphine stage 4 2022. Ganna 35:32 vs Van Aert 35:34 (0.09% slower than Ganna)
  • World Championships 2021. Ganna 47:47 vs Van Aert 47:53 (0.21% slower)
  • Olympic Games 2021. Ganna 56:10 vs Van Aert 56:45 (1.03% slower)
  • Tirreno-Adriatico stage 7 2021. Ganna 11:17 vs Van Aert 11:06 (1.62% faster)
  • World Championships 2020. Ganna 35:54 vs Van Aert 36:20 (1.19% slower)
  • BinckBank Tour stage 2 2017. Ganna 11:18 vs Van Aert 11:19 (0.15% slower)

Both their results (not just against each other) in the previous three years are incredible, winning and finishing in top 3 with a great rate.

Ganna vs Van Aert time-trial statistics since 2019

Ganna’s time-trial ability took a big leap in 2019 when he moved from UAE Team Emirates to Sky/Ineos. He showed great results both on short 10 minute and 45 minute time-trials. Ganna in Tirreno-Adriatico 2020 set the San Benedetto del Tronto course all-time record, doing it in 10:42 with an average speed 56.636 km/h.

La Batie dÕUrfe – Sancynsac – France – cycling – Ganna Filippo (ITA) of INEOS Grenadiers pictured during Criterium du Dauphine (2.UWT) stage 4 between Montbrison and La Batie dÕUrfe ITT (31.9KM) – Photo: Vincent Kalut/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

In 2020 and the early in 2021 season, Ganna was flying not just because he won 8 consecutive time-trials but because he won every single of them with a decent margin. He was faster than second place by at least 1% in every time-trial during that streak.

Ganna’s results in ITT since 2019

Fillippo Ganna’s ITT results since 2019(source: ProCyclingStats.com) and win/loss margin

On the other hand, Van Aert has not competed in as many time-trials as Ganna in recent years, doing only 13 time-trials since 2019, while Ganna in this same time period did 29. When Van Aert does win, it is usually be a lower margin to second place compared to Ganna, as since 2020, he has not won a time-trial by a margin that is bigger than 1%. However it must be noted that Van Aert solely has lined up in time trials of the highest calibre, being Tirreno against Ganna, the Olympics, World Championships, Tour de France (and even the Belgian national championships) whereas Ganna does have some of his statistics skewed by time trials at Tour de la Provence and Etoile de Bessèges.

Van Aert’s results in ITT since 2019

Wout van Aert’s ITT results since 2019 (source: ProCyclingStats.com) and win/loss margin

On the hilly Tokyo Olympics course he lost 1 minute and 41 seconds to Primož Roglič, being 3.06% slower than the Slovene. In the famous La Planche des Belles Filles time-trial that decided the GC win in Tour de France 2020, Van Aert was 2.71% slower than Tadej Pogačar. The Tour de France champion destroyed Van Aert even on parcours that suited the Belgian in Tour de France 2021 stage 5, although Van Aert did not arrive at the Tour de France with ideal preparation, having to recover from a recent surgery. Pogačar when it matters in most in the Tour de France, can not only win but beat by quite a big margin, the world’s top time-trial riders.

Laval Espace Mayenne – France – wielrennen – cycling – cyclisme – radsport – Tadej Pogacar (Slovenia / UAE – Team Emirates) pictured during 108th Tour de France 2021 stage 5 from Change to Laval Espace Mayenne ITT (27.2KM) on 30/06/2021 – photo JdM/PN/Cor Vos © 2021

Despite Ganna currently having the upper hand on Van Aert, their results against each other in World’s and the Dauphiné are so close that just a tiny regression from Ganna or a slight improvement from Van Aert could tip the balance in favour of Jumbo Visma’s star.

The next time-trial, where both giants will clash will be in Copenhagen, where the 2022 Tour de France starts. As you can see below, the 13 kilometre course is very technical with many sharp corners and is completely flat. Since 2019, Ganna has beaten Van Aert in every time-trial that is 35+minute long. The only short time-trial, where they both raced was in Tirreno-Adriatico 2021. Van Aert beat Ganna on the 10.1 kilometre-long San Benedetto del Tronto course, which is nowhere near as technical as Grand Depart in Denmark and Ganna also lost this year’s short UAE Tour time trial against Stefan Bissegger, who will in our opinion must be a top 3 favourite to take yellow in Copenhagen.

Tour de France 2022 stage 1 ITT course map by La Flamme Rouge

Ganna still probably will be the favourite by bookmakers to take the maillot jaune but everything might be decided by cornering skills and a few seconds here or there. Stefan Kung, Rohan Dennis, Mathieu van der Poel and even Mads Pedersen all have a good chance of winning. GC favourites Primož Roglič and Tadej Pogačar might not risk that much and likely will sacrifice a few seconds in the corners as they need to think about the big picture and three weeks. With the lack of long straights and punch needed out of the corners, conditions could not be better for Van Aert to overthrow Ganna on cycling’s biggest stage.

EF Education Flounder as Lotto Approach Salvation | Relegation Battle

byRaúl Banqueri
May 30, 2022
11 minute read
3 comments

The Giro d’Italia is over with its big share of UCI points in the general classification, but the alternative continental calendar has also been very rich in the last three weeks, and some teams in the relegation battle have been able to make the most of it. In this article, we will look at the different approaches of the teams at risk for UCI points.

Furthermore, on the second rest day of the Giro, Alpecin – Fenix made it official that they will apply for the WorldTour licence for next season, a rather logical decision to ensure the stability of the project, but one that had not been confirmed until then. Therefore, with Alpecin and Arkéa having confirmed their WorldTour licence application and in a comfortable position in the triennial ranking, it is now virtually certain that two current WorldTeams will not continue in cycling’s top division.

In case you missed it, we announced last week that Raúl will be making daily updates to the UCI Ranking 2020-22 which can be found on this dedicated page here.

The Past Three Weeks

In the last three weeks of racing, Lotto Soudal has continued to close the gap on EF and BikeExchange, who are both in a more critical situation after a below-expectations Giro from a points perspective. Israel Premier Tech continue to lose more and more ground after a very poor Giro, where they were the worst WorldTour team. With five months of the season to go, it is not yet certain that Israel will be relegated, but the team needs a good run of results like the one Lotto Soudal is currently enjoying.

In this article, we have removed Intermarché and Arkéa from the “teams at risk” category. Although mathematically they still have a chance of relegation, their trend, team construction and race selection makes it very unlikely that they will not finish in the top 18 teams in the ranking this year.

Hofstetter says no more relegation talk for Arkéa

Intermarché is shining in every race it competes in at any level, while Arkéa took advantage of the TroBroLeon to put 4 riders in the top 7 and score almost 500 UCI points in that race.

We are also seeing many teams making their debuts in races they have never shown interest in before, such as BikeExchange at the Tour of Estonia (2.1) and Movistar at Boucles de la Mayenne (2.Pro) this past week, with both teams taking podium places in the general classification of those races. Another sign of this is that Lotto Soudal will make its debut in the Sibiu Tour (2.1) in Romania in June, in a further attempt to score UCI points to renew its licence. Jonathan Vaughters’ EF is probably the team at risk least concerned about the UCI ranking, at least from an outward facing perspective, but we expect that the relegation battle will end up being a big concern in the American team internally as the season progresses.

As the more experienced readers will know, minor races are key in the relegation battle. In the following graph, we show the distribution of points within and between teams by competition, e.g. GC, points jersey, scored by each team participating in the Giro d’Italia.

You can see that BikeExchange has been the best team at risk in the Giro, with 416 UCI points thanks to Simon Yates' two stages and Sobrero's last time trial, but both Lotto Soudal and Cofidis have scored much more points in the 1-day continental races in France and Belgium. It is the best example to explain that this battle for relegation is not won or lost in the big competitions, but mainly in those races that you can practically only follow on the internet. Many of the managers of at-risk teams have realised this too late.

As we said, Lotto Soudal have managed to get close to the salvation zone, despite their star rider Caleb Ewan leaving the Giro without victories and a paltry amount of points. Interestingly, Thomas De Gendt's stage win in the Giro has also had no impact on the ranking, as he is outside the top 10 of Lotto Soudal riders. Youngsters Arnaud de Lie and Florian Vermeersch are driving the Belgian team forward, with victories in the Marcel Kint Classic and Antwerp Port Epic respectively, as well as other places of honour in minor classics. Veteran Philippe Gilbert also confirmed his good feeling with a third place in the Circuit de Wallonie worth 70 points.

De Lie Arnaud (BEL) of Lotto Soudal wins the UCI 1.1 Europe Tour Marcel Kint Classic cycling race with start in Kortrijk and finish in Zwevegem on May 29, 2022 in Zwevegem, Belgium - Photo: Nico Vereecken/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

On the sporting front, the team has had a remarkable month of May, but the pressure of the relegation battle seems to be causing internal problems and tensions. Manager Valerie D'Haeze has resigned and some Belgian media have reported that Tim Wellens is looking to leave the team at the end of the season. However, Caleb Ewan's agent has told VeloNews that the Australian sprinter will not leave Lotto Soudal even if the team is relegated. It is possible that riders from the two relegated teams will be able to cancel their contracts and be free to move to another team, so long as their contract is contingent upon the relevant team holding a WorldTour licence.

Cofidis has been the other winning team in the last 3 weeks. They have not had a great Giro, despite Guillaume Martin's customary attempts to backdoor a GC top 10 from the breakaway, but the French team is making the most of the continental calendar (especially the French one). Benjamin Thomas won the Boucles de la Mayenne, Jesús Herrada was 4th in the Tour du Finistère and 2nd in Boucles de l'Aulne, while Axel Zingle finished 10th in the Marcel Kint Classic, 9th in Boucles de l'Aulne and 2nd Circuit de Wallonie. Between them, the three riders have scored 505 UCI points in the last three weeks, more than 15 teams in the entire Giro d'Italia.

Benjamin Thomas (FRA - Cofidis) has been a brilliant signing by Cofidis - Photo: Roberto Bettini/LB/RB/Cor Vos © 2022

BikeExchange was the best team at risk in the Giro, but their prayers largely went unanswered in respect of Simon Yates' GC position. Last year Simon Yates scored a podium and 695 UCI points in the Giro and this year he dropped out with only 200 points. However, the team is also beginning to take care of the smaller calendar and Groenewegen scored 199 points thanks to his victories in the Tour de Hongrie and the Veenendaal Classic and his 4th place in the Rund um Köln. Most interesting for the team was their last-minute participation in the Tour of Estonia (2.1), where they were the only WorldTeam on the startlist. Despite a flat prologue and two sprint style stages, the team will probably be disappointed to leave with no stage victories and only third on GC. Huge Estonian talent Madis Mihkels beat Groves in an uphill sprint on stage 1, an 18 year old already with a 2.5 year deal on Intermarché commencing in August.

Even so for BikeExchange, they scored 120 UCI points across the race, at a higher rate per race day than they did at the Giro d'Italia.

Movistar has also been able to climb the podium in the two alternative races they have contested: the Tour de Hongrie (2nd with Óscar Rodríguez) and the Boucles de la Mayenne (3rd with Alex Aranburu). These results have minimised the damage of a rather discreet Giro for the Spanish team, where Valverde has only scored 124 points (120 from the 11th place in the GC and 4 from his 5th place in the Mortirolo stage). Many Spanish fans have blamed Valverde's conservative style in the Giro on his quest for UCI points in the general classification. However, the former world champion has raced this way throughout his 20 years as a professional and if he were truly hunting points he would have appeared in more breakaways in the style of Guillaume Martin, attempting to claw back time.

Bad luck has been very bad for DSM, who for the first time this season have a gap of less than 2,000 points to the relegation zone. Bardet had to abandon the Giro when he was a candidate for victory and Brenner tested positive for Covid in the Tour of Norway when he was fifth after the queen stage. Nevertheless, they were able to salvage those disappointments with Dainese's stage win and Arensman's good performances, and, looking ahead to the relegation fight, Nikias Arndt's third place in the Rund um Köln brought them 70 very important UCI points.

Blockhaus - Italy - cycling - Mikel Landa (ESP - Bahrain Victorious) - Richard Carapaz (ECU - INEOS Grenadiers) - Romain Bardet (FRA - Team DSM) pictured during 105th Giro dÕItalia 2022 - (2.UWT) - stage 9 from Isernia to Blockhaus (191KM) - Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Matters are more delicate at Education First, which is already 18th on the brink of the relegation zone. Hugh Carthy's irregularity deprived him of a top 5 in the general classification of the Giro, which would have been more in keeping with his strengths shown on the Fedaia steep finish than his ninth place in GC, which gave him 180 UCI points. In addition, the EF was the team with the shortest alternative calendar to the Giro, participating only in the Tour of Norway. There, Esteban Chaves suffered in the winds and could only finish ninth, scoring 40 UCI points, not enough to move away from the relegation zone.

But undoubtedly the worst team of the last weeks has been Israel - Premier Tech, which has shown a very poor performance. Nizzolo could only enter one stage in the top 3 and retired before the last week and De Marchi could not be protagonist any day in a race where last year he wore the maglia rosa for several stages. In addition, in the Tour of Norway, Patrick Bevin had to abandon with stomach problems when he was seventh after the queen stage, losing the 60 UCI points that this position gives him in the general classification. Climber Carl Fredrik Hagen has been the team's most outstanding cyclist, with a top 5 at the Tour of Hongrie and a top 10 at the Tour of Norway, but the Israelis are increasingly likely to be relegated. The absence of Ben Hermans since the end of March (presumably due to sickness or injury), an elite rider in these five to six day .Pro races, is really hurting their points tally in the alternative calendar.

2023 Wildcards

In the fight for the 2023 WorldTour wildcards, decided by the 2022 annual ranking, Lotto Soudal and TotalEnergies remain very comfortably in the top two positions, which give access to the wildcards for the entire WorldTour calendar. The French team has also completed a great month of May, with Julien Simon winning the Grand Prix du Morbihan and the Tour du Finistère.

Currently, Israel would lose its WorldTour licence and would not get wildcards for next year's WorldTour stage races. However, if EF were to enter the relegation zone instead of Lotto Soudal, those wildcards would go to TotalEnergies and Israel, as Israel has earned more UCI points than EF so far in the 2022 season. This could result in a situation at the end of the year where Israel are mathematically relegated but Lotto and EF are still fighting for salvation, in which case Israel would be incentivised to work for Lotto in races they both appear in.

This would be one of the many unintended consequences of the current promotion and relegation system, if a team like Israel would commit to such an unorthodox strategy.

The Next 2 Weeks (30 May – 12 Jun)

The competition continues after the Giro with 11 races in the next fortnight and the Critérium du Dauphiné as the big WorldTour race. However it is likely to be the eight one-day races (five of them in Belgium) that will be the most relevant events in terms of the relegation battle. The list of these races is below with the start-list linked.

  1. Mercan'Tour Classic Alpes-Maritimes (1.1, 31/05) (Movistar, Lotto, Israel, Cofidis)
  2. Giro dell'Appennino (1.1, 02/06) (Israel)
  3. Adriatica Ionica Race (2.1, 04/06 – 08/06) (unknown)
  4. Heistse Pijl (1.1, 04/06) (Lotto, Cofidis, Israel)
  5. Brussels Cycling Classic (1.Pro, 05/06) (Lotto, Cofidis, Israel, BikeExchange)
  6. Critérium du Dauphiné (2.UWT, 05/06 – 12/06) (All)
  7. Ronde van Limburg (1.1, 06/06) (Lotto, Cofidis, Israel)
  8. ZLM Tour (2.Pro, 08/06 – 12/06) (DSM)
  9. Grosser Preis des Kantons Aargau (1.1, 10/06) (Lotto, BikeExchange, Cofidis)
  10. Dwars door het Hageland (1.Pro, 11/06) (Lotto, Cofidis, Israel)
  11. Elfstedenronde Brugge (1.1, 12/06) (Lotto, Cofidis, Israel)

Lotto Soudal, Israel and Cofidis are the teams with the biggest schedule over the next two weeks, as they will cover all the Belgian classics. For Lotto Soudal it is a great opportunity to get closer to the top 18, as right now they have De Lie, Vermeersch and Gilbert in great shape to challenge for podiums and victories in suitable races.

Vermeersch' first pro win at the Antwerp Port Epic Cycling race 2022 (182 km over unpaved and cobbled roads ): Gregory van Gansen/PN/Cor Vos © 2022

Israel also have a fantastic opportunity to close the gap on EF, as they are sending both Woods and Fuglsang to the hilly Mercan'Tour and Appennino races as well as an in-form Sebastian Berwick who just took a victory in Alpes-Isere with power data that should be competitive at these 1.1 races. Instead of riding solely as a domestique for the more senior Woods or Fuglsang, Israel should be encouraging riders like Berwick to accumulate top 10s, in the style of Arkéa. Presumably Sep Vanmarcke will line up for them in the Belgian classics where he is more than capable of top 5 results.

Movistar did not plan to take part in the Mercan'Tour Classic in their original calendar so they are probably tinkering with the calendar with UCI points in mind given their presence this week. In any case, their biggest chance for points will come in the Dauphiné with Enric Mas, a podium contender in the general classification.

EF is the only team at risk that will not race outside the WorldTour based on current startlists, so they will depend on the performance of climbers Chaves and Padun in the Dauphiné. The team's future does not look good if they continue to ignore strategies to maximise UCI points as if they are relegated they would only receive automatic invites to WorldTour one-day races assuming they surpass UNO-X at some point in the 2022 ranking. Wilfully ignoring the relegation system seems like an imprudent approach when EF should have been able to remain in the top 18 teams quite easily with some very minor schedule alterations during 2022.

Hugh Carthy (GBR / Team EF Education - Nippo) pictured during 105th Giro dÕItalia 2022 - (2.UWT) - stage 15 from Rivarolo Canavese to Cogne (177KM) - Photo: Miwa iijima/Cor Vos © 2022

They began the year with a handy buffer from 2020 and 2021, and so did not need to almost entirely focus on points like Lotto-Soudal and Cofidis have done. Perhaps the team believes that they can litigate any relegation at the Court of Arbitration for Sport but the cost of such an approach and the stress it applies to the riders, staff and sponsors, seems to outweigh the cost of simply sending Marijn van den Berg to some suitable Belgian or Dutch 1.1 races that the talented neo-pro should have attended for his development anyway.

We resume our regularly scheduled programming of fortnightly instalments now that the Giro has finished. As always, make sure to let us know on twitter if you have any thoughts on the article or what teams could be doing differently – if you enjoyed it, share it with a friend (or a Directeur Sportif in need).

Editor’s Note: This article was prepared by Raúl Banqueri with contributions from the Editor, Patrick Broe. Raúl Banqueri is a Spanish journalist who has been tracking the UCI points system for a number of years, with the UCI often correcting their ranking to accord with his.

Hindley Storms to Giro Lead on Passo Fedaia

byKārlis Ozols
May 28, 2022
4 minute read
No comments

Jai Hindley on the last mountain stage of the Giro d’Italia, performed once again at a high level, dropping and breaking the race leader Richard Carapaz on the steep finish to Passo Fedaia. Hindley did the fastest Passo Fedaia time since 2000, producing high watts to over 2000 metres at the very end of the three weeks around Hungary and Italy.

Giro d’Italia stage 20 2022 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Faster than Marco Pantani in 1998

Passo Fedaia has been used many times in races. The full climb is 12.9 kilometres long and 7.8% steep, but the second part is the hardest one with 5.3 kilometres and 11.11% gradient, where it is impossible to hide weakness.

Passo Fedaia was done at an unexpectedly high pace from the start of the steep section, considering that Kelderman and Buchmann could not help Hindley and Landa had run out of domestiques. Surprisingly it was INEOS setting a very high tempo with first Ben Tulett and then Pavel Sivakov at the front. Obviously INEOS were not comfortable with Carapaz’ three second lead on Hindley and wanted to take more time from him.

The pacing of Sivakov reduces the group to 5 riders

Unfortunately for them, this plan backfired massively when Hindley attacked across to his Bora-Hansgrohe teammate, Lennard Kämna, who they used as a satellite rider. Kämna had been called back from the breakaway and once Hindley reached his wheel, already Landa was dropped and the German pulled on Passo Fedaia as hard as possible, distancing Carapaz with just Hindley in his wheel. After Kämna was finished, Hindley went solo and put a massive gap between him and everyone else, doing an insane 6.51 w/kg for 18:50.

For Carapaz, this seemed like a case of going over his limit and blowing up on the climb, compared to Landa who was initially dropped when Hindley first surged and then came past Carapaz to put nearly 40 seconds into him. With Hindley’s legs today it was inevitable that he would drop Carapaz on the steep slopes, but perhaps if Carapaz and INEOS had been more conservative on the climb, Carapaz would have a fighting chance to take back the lead in the time trial tomorrow.

Richard Carapaz (ECU – INEOS Grenadiers) – Lennard Kaemna (Germany / Team Bora – hansgrohe) pictured during 105th Giro dÕItalia 2022 – (2.UWT) – stage 20 from Belluno – Marmolada (Passo Fedaia)( 168KM) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

This was the fastest edition of Passo Fedaia since 2000, when Francesco Casagrande did it two seconds faster. In 1998, Marco Pantani was two seconds slower than Hindley, but the record holder still remains Enrico Zaina. The Italian in 1996, when the 50% hematocrit rule was not yet introduced, climbed it in 18:27, pushing 6.73 w/kg. Hindley’s time is impressive, despite not beating peak EPO era times.

Passo Fedaia w/kg calculations and times by Naichaca

The stage before the final climb was hard with two big mountains, Passo San Pellegrino and Passo Pordoi, before it. Although, the tempo was not insane on the big mountains before Passo Fedaia, the stage before it was still hard. According to Emanuel Buchmann’s data, the GC group did 13.98 kj/kg/h for 4 hours and 30 minutes before the steep section of Passo Fedaia, which is a decent intensity especially considering the higher altitude.

Jai Hindley best performances

Passo Fedaia might be Hindley’s second or third best climbing performance so far in his career. What makes Passo Fedaia more impressive compared to Santa Cristina is the altitude, where it is harder to produce the same w/kg as at lower altitudes. All of Hindley’s top performances are from Italian races, Giro d’Italia (2022 and 2020), Tirreno-Adriatico or Tour of the Alps.

Lanterne Rouge x Cycling Graphs – best performances of Jai Hindley

Hindley performs significantly better in Grand Tours than in one-week races. For example, this year in the Queen stage of Tirreno-Adriatico, stage 6 on Monte Carpegna, Hindley did only 5.87 w/kg for 21:12, losing to Tadej Pogačar 1 minute and 43 seconds. However with his Giro stage 20 legs he would easily follow the Tour de France champion and maybe even drop him as Carpegna is a low altitude climb. Hindley that day even lost time to Mikel Landa on the climb, while in Giro he was able to drop the Spaniard easily.

Almost no one expected Hindley to be so good this Giro. In betting markets before the race he was 10th biggest favourite with 51.00 odds to win (2% implied probability), mainly due to his 2nd place in the 2020 Giro and reasonable level in Tirreno-Adriatico. Hindley this year proved that the 2020 performance in the third week and on Piancavallo was not a fluke. Tao Geoghegan Hart, who beat Hindley in the 2020 Giro has not performed anywhere near that level again, after suffering numerous setbacks in the past 18 months including crashing heavily last year.

Giro d’Italia 2022 odds one week before the race

With Hindley’s 85 second lead on Carapaz going into the final 17km time trial tomorrow, it looks very unlikely that he will lose the maglia rosa in the final TT a second time. Carapaz is not a brilliant time trial rider and will need to take around 5 seconds per kilometre from Hindley. A brilliant heist from Bora-Hansgrohe and Hindley, who came into the Giro d’Italia under the radar and leave with stage wins and most likely the victory.

Remco Evenepoel Produces The Best Climbing Performance of 2022

byKārlis Ozols
May 26, 2022
4 minute read
12 comments

While the Giro d’Italia is receiving the most attention, the Tour of Norway stage 3 did not disappoint at all, with Remco Evenepoel doing an unbelievable climbing performance on the queen stage that ended with the steep Gaustatoppen-Stavsro climb (10.5 km, 8.7%).

Tour of Norway stage 3 2022 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Nuclear Watts In Norway

The pace on the 10 kilometre-long climb was high already from the bottom, thanks to EF-Education Pro Cycling. James Shaw did a great job, thinning down the group and working for Esteban Chaves even after working during the middle of the stage chasing INEOS who had created a split in crosswinds. Jay Vine attacked with 8 kilometres to go and increased the tempo. Footage below courtesy of Velon.

Vine attacks with 8km to go

Very rarely one of the big favourites attacks so early, but the sections were around 10% steep, so the draft did not matter that much. Vine was caught and with 7 km to go Evenepoel started to drill as hard as possible, dropping Chaves then race leader Johannessen off his wheel.

Stavsro – Norway – cycling – Remco Evenepoel (Belgium / Team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) – Ethan Hayter (GBR / Team INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during 11th Tour of Norway (2.Pro) stage 3 from Gol to Stavsro/Gaustatoppen (175.8KM – Photo: Szymon Gruchalski/Cor Vos © 2022

As Evenepoel said in the interview afterwards, the presence of a tailwind made his attakcs more difficult for the others to follow, and when he attacked with just under 5 kilometres remaining, no one could follow.

Evenepoel goes solo

Evenepoel soloed to the finish, doing an insane 6.50 w/kg for 30 minutes and 23 seconds, which is easily the best climbing performance of 2022.

Gaustatoppen-Stavsro climbing times and w/kg calculations by Naichaca

Jay Vine lost on the climb 26 seconds to Evenepoel, doing 6.34 w/kg for 30:49. Also an incredibly high climbing level. In the second part of the climb, when Evenepoel started pacing and went solo, he did 6.85 w/kg for 15 minutes.

Gaustatoppen-Stavsro (last 5.6 km) climbing times and w/kg calculations by Naichaca

Strava data from Jay Vine is a confirmation that this was an incredible performance. Vine did 435 watts for little over 30 minutes, which is 6.30 w/kg. We assume his weight is around 69 kilograms. All the w/kg estimations are done with 60 kg etalon weight because a heavier rider like Vine with the same w/kg will be faster on a climb than for example, 55 kg Juan Pedro Lopez.

Jay Vine Strava data from Tour of Norway stage 3

Best Remco Climbing Performance

Without a surprise, this is by far the best climbing performance by Remco Evenepoel. It is easy to forget that he is only 22-year-old, younger than last year’s Tour de l’Avenir winner Tobias Johannessen from whom he took the leader’s jersey today.

Lanterne Rouge x CyclingGraphs – best climbing performances of Remco Evenepoel

His reported weight at the start of the season in Algarve and Valenciana was 66.5 kg, in Basque Country it was around 64 kg, and it looks like after the Liege-Bastogne-Liege victory he has shed even more kilograms to improve his climbing ability. This would explain why finally he did not struggle on the steep gradients like he did early this season in Basque Country, Valenciana and Algarve.

Remco Evenepoel (Belgium / Team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) – Luke Plapp (Australia / Team INEOS Grenadiers) pictured during 11th Tour of Norway (2.Pro) stage 3 from Gol to Stavsro/Gaustatoppen (175.8KM – Photo: Szymon Gruchalski/Cor Vos © 2022

The previous best pure w/kg performance by Evenepoel was surprisingly in the 2019 Tour of Turkey. Also on this day Evenepoel attacked early, but was caught by Conti, Kudus and Grossschartner and finished 4th. The stage before was not hard and it was a good w/kg test for at that time 19-year-old Remco.

Kartepe w/kg calculations and times by Naichaca

It is logical that during these 3 years he would progress, despite crashing hard in 2020 Il Lombardia and falling off the bridge, which could have also ended his career. He came back in Giro d’Italia 2021 but it was too early, which influenced his entire 2021 season. Finally, in 2022 he has gained more experience on climbs and probably found his perfect weight, which is the reason why we saw this nuclear performance in Norway.

Remco Evenepoel (Belgium / Team Deceuninck – Quick Step) pictured during the 55th Presidential Cycling Tour of Turkey (2.UWT) stage-4 between Balikesir and Bursa (194.3KM) – photo Brian Hodes/Cor Vos © 2019 ***USA OUT***

Many riders broke their power personal bests for 20 and 30 minutes on Tour of Norway Stage 3. Probably those who lost close to two minutes such as Brenner and Sheffield.

Whilst the temperature was perfect for high performances, the stage before the climb was not easy. The riders needed to do 12.43 kj/kg/h for 4 hours and 13 seconds, which is a medium tempo and in the middle of the stage to be in the first echelon, Jay Vine needed to push 371 watts (5.38 w/kg) for over 30 minutes when INEOS attacked.

Slovenians, Remco is Coming

The next Grand Tour Evenepoel will race is planned to be Vuelta a Espana, where we might to see both Slovenians. If Evenepoel can bring Tour of Norway legs to Spain then it must be an exciting battle. Evenepoel is one of the most aero riders ever and the shallow 6-7% gradients on long climbs in the parcours of the Vuelta a Espana 2022 are perfect for him.

What must be a surprise to many, is that compared to the best Pogačar climbing performances, Evenepoel did a better in Tour of Norway stage 3, although it was not super difficult before the climb.

Lanterne Rouge x CyclingGraphs – best climbing performances of Tadej Pogačar compared to Evenepoel’s Tour of Norway 2022 performance

WorldTour 2020-22 Team Points Ranking – Updated Daily

byRaúl Banqueri
May 25, 2022
2 minute read
60 comments

On this page, you will find the WorldTour 2020-22 ranking of teams’ UCI points, which is updated daily by Raúl Banqueri. The brilliant feature art will be continually updated and is produced by Louemans.

Please bookmark this page if you find it useful and need to refer to it often. An overview of the promotion and relegation system of cycling can be found in this article.

Want to stay safe on public WiFi or change your virtual location? Surfshark VPN has you covered. Go to https://surfshark.deals/ROUGE for 83% off a Surfshark VPN and 3 extra months free using code ROUGE.

Triennium Ranking

The following graph represents the points earned by the top 22 teams in the world in the current WorldTeam licensing cycle, from 2020 to 2022. The 18 teams with the most points at the end of the 2022 season will earn WorldTeam licences for the next cycle, from 2023 to 2025.

2023 Wildcard Ranking

The relegated teams will have the opportunity to obtain one of the two automatic invitations to the 2023 WorldTour races. These invitations are awarded on the basis of the 2022 annual ranking and are competed for by the ProTeams against the relegated WorldTour teams. The following daily updated graph shows the status of this battle, adding also the points of the teams at risk of relegation.

Useful Resources

To give you an idea of the size of the differences in UCI points, we also show you the UCI points scale in the table below. We recommend you to download it in high resolution from here.

We also share the UCI calendar for the second half of the season. You can download it in high resolution from here.

Every two weeks, we analyse the performance of the teams involved in the WorldTour relegation battle in an extensive article. Below, you can find all our latest work:

Pantani’s Record Broken by Hindley, Landa & Carapaz | Giro d’Italia Stage 16

byKārlis Ozols
May 24, 2022
5 minute read
3 comments

Giro d’Italia stage 16 was the hardest climbing stage in 2022 so far. The six hour epic was eventually won by Jan Hirt, who again found his Tour of Oman legs in the breakaway, crushing Thymen Arensman’s heart, who was very close to his first pro victory. Bahrain-Victorious paced hard for Mikel Landa, but he could not drop his main rivals, Jai Hindley and Richard Carapaz, all of them finishing in the same group. Joao Almeida paced himself very well on Santa Cristina after he was dropped, only losing 14 seconds to his rivals.

Giro d’Italia stage 16 2022 profile by La Flamme Rouge

The Hardest Mountain Day In 2022

The stage overall was extremely difficult from start to finish. 202 kilometres and 5300 metres of elevation being at the top end of the range seen in stage racing each year. There will be some hard mountain stages in the alps in the Tour de France this year, but Giro stage 16 is a clear favourite to be the hardest mountain stage in 2022.

The best placed GC rider who uploaded power data on Strava was Emanuel Buchmann (59 kg). He was in the GC group until the last climb of the day, Santa Cristina (12.7 km, 8.1%). The whole day was raced at an insanely hard tempo. Before Santa Cristina, the riders in the GC group did 14.63 kj/kg/h for 5 hours and 20 minutes, which is especially high when considering that a GC rider like Buchmann was able to sit in the draft in the long valleys before the Mortirolo and Santa Cristina climbs.

The day in the GC group

For comparison, the queen stage of Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 was only 12.44 kj/kg/h for 5 hours before Monte Carpegna, where Tadej Pogačar did 6.50 w/kg for 19:29, while the closest riders, Mikel Landa, Richie Porte, Jonas Vingegaard and Enric Mas, could only produce 5.96 w/kg for 20:53, with less fatigue in the legs.

Tadej Pogacar (SLO – UAE Team Emirates) pictured during 57th Tirreno – Adriatico (2.UWT) a stage 6 between Apecchio to Carpegna (215KM) – Photo: Roberto Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Today Thymen Arensman (69.5 kg) was very close to getting the first pro win of his career. Despite doing his best career performance, it was not enough as Jan Hirt caught and dropped him on the steep gradients of Santa Cristina. Arensman also was in the stage 15 breakaway but was dropped early, like due to the hot conditions that he stated was not to his liking.

The day in the breakaway

Mega Watts On Santa Cristina

Before the Santa Cristina climb, the GC group was already really small, around 15 riders, after Bahrain-Victorious had paced the uncategorised Teglio climb with Domen Novak. Landa’s lieutenants were able to keep the tempo high on the slopes of Santa Cristana thanks to Santiago Buitrago and then Wout Poels, who was called back from the breakaway, pulling the group in the last part of the climb before Landa’s attack.

Aprica – Italy – cycling – Santiago Buitrago (COL – Bahrain Victorious) pictured during 105th Giro dÕItalia 2022 – (2.UWT) – stage 16 from Salo to Aprica (202KM) – Photo: Luca Bettini/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Richard Carapaz, Jai Hindley and Mikel Landa were the fastest on Santa Cristina, climbing it in 36 minutes and 15 seconds, breaking Marco Pantani’s record on the climb by 8 seconds.

Santa Cristina times and w/kg calculations by Naichaca

The Italian rider set that record in stage 15 of the Giro d’Italia 1994, where he beat Miguel Indurain by 3 minutes and 30 seconds. Although, Pantani’s record was broken, the Italian’s performance was still more impressive as his bike was likely heavier and he was riding solo for a long time after attacking early. Before Santa Cristina, Pantani did 6.30 w/kg for 42:40 on Mortirolo. Nonetheless, despite the big fatigue of today’s stage, and it obviously being in the modern era, Almeida, Hindley, Carapaz and Landa were able to produce career-best level numbers according to our estimations.

GC Contenders at their Peak

Buchmann was in the group with the other GC favourites until the Santa Cristina climb. Assuming everyone’s w/kg on the earlier climbs were similar then Landa, Carapaz and Hindley’s power on the climbs looks like this.

  • 5.25 w/kg for 72:20 – Goletto di Candino
  • 5.56 w/kg for 45:50 – Passo del Mortirolo
  • 6.20 w/kg for 16:01 – Teglio
  • 6.20 w/kg for 36:15 – Santa Cristina

Below you can see how today’s performance on Santa Cristina stacks up against Richard Carapaz’ previous best performances. Even though it was a hard stage beforehand, at 28 years old the wearer of the Maglia Rosa did one of the best performances of his career.

Lanterne Rouge x CyclingGraphs – best climbing performances of Richard Carapaz

Mikel Landa has many great performances but today he showed some of his best power, despite crashing in the middle of Santa Cristina, touching teammate Pello Bilbao’s wheel. Landa did similar numbers for a longer duration on Piancavallo in 2017, winning from a breakaway, but today’s stage was way harder before the climb than in 2017.

Lanterne Rouge x CyclingGraphs – best climbing performances of Mikel Landa

Almeida in the 2022 Giro has dropped on almost all major climbs but is pacing himself really well, in the style of Tom Dumoulin and Miguel Indurain. Today on Santa Cristina he did his best climbing performance since Piancavallo in the Giro 2020.

Lanterne Rouge x CyclingGraphs – best climbing performances of Joao Almeida

Speaking of Piancavallo 2020, Jai Hindley astonished the world that day with 6.41 w/kg for 37:54, and looks like he has regained a similar level in this Giro d’Italia, taking up the pacing at the end of Santa Cristina, with neither Landa nor Carapaz able to attack him.

Despite these career best numbers for many of the GC protagonists, and the extremely hard stage, the GC gaps were not too big by the end of the stage. Almeida lost only 14 seconds, while Nibali lost 42 seconds to Hindley, Carapaz and Landa. The GC riders who are fighting for Top 10 and were in the GC group, Domenico Pozzovivo (who crashed), Pello Bilbao, Emanuel Buchmann and Juan Pedro Lopez, could not stand the high tempo and lost multiple minutes.

Stage 17 will be hard, with two nasty climbs close to the finish, Valco del Vetriolo (11.8 km, 7.7%) and Monterovere (8 km, 9.6%). This is the 3rd week and after today there will be a lot of fatigue amongst the riders. It is always possible that someone in the Top 10 can crack completely like Simon Yates in 2018 and lose several minutes. That will depend on whether Bahrain-Victorious want to repeat their efforts of today or Bora-Hansgrohe apply Kelderman, Kämna and Buchmann solely as domestiques for Hindley, as they are the strongest overall climbing teams in this Giro d’Italia.

Giro d’Italia stage 17 profile by La Flamme Rouge

Forget the Leadout | How Lotto-Soudal Improved Positioning For Caleb Ewan in the Giro

byKārlis Ozols
May 12, 2022
5 minute read
3 comments

Caleb Ewan is arguably the fastest sprinter in the world, but often that does not matter as his team, Lotto-Soudal, have struggled to consistently deliver Ewan in a good position to win in sprints in the last two years. In the Giro d’Italia stages 3 and 6, Lotto-Soudal used two different tactics for positioning Ewan before the sprint, which we will analyse in this article.

Stage 3

Lotto-Soudal are without Jasper de Buyst at this year’s Giro d’Italia, after a crash in the Tour of Turkey left him injured, a big blow for Lotto as he is typically their last man. Without him, everyone’s role moves one rung forward in the hierarchy, with Selig going from 750 metre man to last man etc. In stage 3 the Lotto-Soudal sprint train for Ewan, which includes Roger Kluge, Michael Schwarzmann and Rudiger Selig, was sitting in the peloton until the 3 kilometre mark.

After 3 km to go they moved up as the peloton split in two parts. In the left side there was the Alpecin-Fenix train, and in the right the Israel Premier-Tech train, but in the middle was nothing. Lotto-Soudal went to the middle and had Ewan behind Groupama-FDJ who were working for Arnaud Demare, whilst Kluge was eating the wind.

As the tempo increased and every sprint team tried to move forward, the Lotto-Soudal train for Ewan completely shattered in two parts, which practically meant game over for Ewan’s chances to win as he was deeper in the peloton with just over 60 seconds left in the sprint.

Lotto-Soudal train split

When with 1.5 km to go, the Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl train hit the wind and started to go full-gas, Ewan was forced to move deeper in the peloton due to the washing machine effect as many riders surpassed him, trying to get to the front. With 0.9 km to go Ewan was so deep in the peloton that he was nowhere to be seen.

No Lotto-Soudal riders at the front

With 500 metres to go it was finally possible to see Ewan, who was far back in the peloton, while his teammate Schwarzmann was working hard to close the gap to the front riders. Rudiger Selig was higher in the peloton than Ewan and Schwarzmann and was looking around, wondering where his teammates were.

Ewan despite the horrible positioning, still finished 8th, trying to overcome as many riders as possible at the right open side of the road. Cavendish won the stage, thanks to a solid Quick-Step lead-out, which was not 100% perfect as Cavendish needed to start to sprint with 300 metres, but his position was way better than Ewan’s and gave him a fighting chance to win the stage.

Mark Cavendish (GBR / Team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) pictured during 105th Giro dÕItalia 2022 – (2.UWT) – stage 3 from Kaposv‡r to BalatonfŸred (201KM) – Photo: Ilario Biondi/SCA/Cor Vos © 2022

Compared to the lead-out trains of Groupama-FDJ and Quickstep, Lotto-Soudal do not have the firepower to move up with 2000-15000 metres to go with just three lead-out men and deliver Ewan at 200 metres to go. They do not have de Buyst here and Schwarzmann and Kluge no longer have the ability to move Ewan forwards at Grand Tour level in the last 1500 metres of sprint stages. Most of the time when they try the approach of relying on their own train, they are swarmed late, Ewan is shuffled back and cannot open up his sprint from a competitive position, as shown in Saudi Tour Stage 3.

Lotto’s train is split and Ewan cannot contest for the win

Israel Premier-tech have suffered from a similar issue for the last few years, first with Greipel and now with Nizzolo, where they adopt a traditional HTC High Road / Quickstep train pacing strategy leading from the front in the last 2000m but without the firepower to actually pull that off successfully.

Stage 6

In stage 6, Lotto-Soudal adopted a different strategy to deliver Ewan in at least a competitive position for his sprint. Kluge was moved to the front much earlier, pulling long before other 3rd last men had begun their work such as Scotson (FDJ) and Ballerini (Quickstep). Here you can see Lotto positioned next to the Quickstep train, with Ewan just in front of Cavendish.

Lotto-Soudal train at the front

Once Kluge was finished, with 3 km to go Lotto had relinquished control of the front of the peloton and Ewan had slid onto Cavendish’ wheel, with Schwarzmann and Selig both acting as sweepers on either side of Ewan’s back wheel.

Ewan perched on the wheel of Cavendish

The strategy appeared to be that if you yourself do not have the best lead-out in the race, the next best thing is to sit your sprinter on the wheel of the man who does – Cavendish being leadout by Mørkøv. This sounds easy in theory, but other riders also have this idea, many of whom are significantly bigger than Ewan. This is why Selig and Schwarzmann not doing their own lead-out but acting as bodyguards on Ewan’s wheel is essential for this strategy to pay off, and it worked, with Ewan keeping Cavendish’ wheel all the way to the final kilometre of the sprint as Quickstep began their lead-out in earnest.

Schwarzmann and Selig protecting Ewan

Were it not for Cimolai obstructing the Quickstep train as they moved up Cavendish, the stowaway Caleb Ewan probably would have won this stage, as Mørkøv had to regather momentum when moving past Demare with 500 metres to go.

Nonetheless it was an almost perfect position for Ewan, being delivered by Cavendish with clean air in front of him after Quick-Step once again finished their lead-out too early. Ewan easily surpassed him but unfortunately had Demare in his wheel.

It came down to a bike throw, with Demare benefitting from the draft (albeit small) of Ewan and a resurgence of form, nailing the Australian with in the last few metres to win by a slim margin.

Despite the loss, Lotto-Soudal should be much happier with the result of the sprint today as compared to stage 3. They adopted the best possible tactic, executed it well by positioning Ewan behind a strong lead-out and gave Ewan a chance to compete for victory. If they can repeat the process of this stage 6 in the remaining sprint stages at this year’s Giro, then Ewan will surely not come away empty handed.