La Vuelta and the races of the last few weeks have further defined the relegation battle. While in the previous licensing cycle there were 8 very evenly matched teams until the last months of 2022, in this cycle the fight is practically down to 4 WorldTeams (DSM, Cofidis, Arkéa and Astana) plus Uno-X, which is aiming for promotion to the WorldTour.

2023-2025 UCI Ranking

As you can see in the ranking, the group of Jayco Alula, Movistar and Israel have moved some 5000 points away from Arkéa after a successful Vuelta a España. That’s a pretty reassuring lead with a month and a season to go before the end of the triennium. For Movistar it was especially important to get this margin, as next year they will lose Aranburu (to Cofidis) and Lazkano (to Red Bull Bora), two of the team’s top scorers.

In addition, Jayco and Intermarché made great use of the GP de Québec with Matthews (winner) and Girmay (2nd). Girmay’s season (with 3067 UCI points) is proving to be key to Intermarché’s tranquility. It is the WorldTeam that has depended most on its leader in this 2024 season, with Girmay accounting for 35,5% of Intermarché’s total UCI points.

In 17th position, DSM has also taken a breath of fresh air in La Vuelta thanks to the great performances of youngsters Bittner and Poole. Although Bardet will retire in June of next season, 2025 does not look bad for DSM if young riders like Poole, Onley, Bitner, Vermaerke, Andresen or Van den Broek continue to develop.

Cofidis is the team most at risk of falling into the relegation zone, although they have had some relief thanks to Ion Izagirre's 5th place in GP de Montréal. As we can see in the graph, they are living off the advantage gained in 2023 and are in a negative trend in 2024. “The points have gone from concern to obsession. Cycling is starting to look like football: in every match, you need a win or a draw to score points and not die”, explains Gorka Gerrikagoitia, sports director of Cofidis, to Relevo. Next season, Cofidis will add two good scorers like Aranburu and Teuns, but they will miss Zingle and Guillaume Martin.

In the relegation zone are Arkéa and Astana. Thanks to the money from new Chinese sponsor XDS, Astana signed Bettiol mid-season and announced Ulissi, Higuita, Poels and Gate. With Aaron Gate, Astana is looking to make the most of the Asian continental calendar, where they can score points against weaker teams. The New Zealander has scored more points this season at Burgos BH than any Astana rider.

Although it is almost impossible for Astana to avoid relegation next season, it is crucial for them to finish ahead of the other relegated team and the ProTeams Uno-X (if not promoted to the WorldTour) or Tudor in the 2025 annual ranking, in order to get the 2026 WorldTour wildcards. The progress of Uno-X and the signings of Hirschi and Alaphilippe by Tudor will make it more difficult for relegated teams to get wildcards for the WorldTour calendar in 2026.

2024 Ranking

In the annual ranking, UAE still has an overwhelming lead over the rest of the teams, doubling in points all but Visma | Lease a Bike. Below, Astana, Cofidis and Arkéa are the worst WorldTeams of the season, but it is surprising the 15th position of Bahrain Victorious, which has finished among the top 8 teams the last 3 seasons. Moreover, Bahrain has been the worst team in La Vuelta and is the only WorldTeam that has not won a stage in Giro, Tour or Vuelta this season.

In the Vuelta, Ineos also stood out negatively, without a single place in the top 3 in stages. On the other hand, Team Kern Pharma, with its 3 stage wins, was the 7th best team in La Vuelta and the best invited team in any of the three Grand Tours this season. In the following graph, you can see the points in the 2024 Grand Tours of all the participating teams.

In this graph, we can see that Arkéa is the WorldTeam that has scored the least points in the Grand Tours, losing many points to its rivals in the relegation battle. Teams like DSM, Jayco or Movistar prepare the Grand Tours with more care, although they sacrifice minor races where Arkéa gets more UCI points.

In the interactive chart below, you can see the UCI points of all the riders of the 22 teams aiming for WorldTour licenses.

2025 Wildcards

Regarding the ProTeams ranking, Lotto and Israel remain safe in the top two places, with a 2000 UCI points lead over Uno-X, despite the Norwegian team's push in the second half of the season. Tudor, meanwhile, will not have guaranteed wildcards in any WorldTour races next season.

As we mentioned, this ranking will change next season, as Lotto and Israel will most likely become WorldTeams in 2026. Therefore, the teams that will contest the 2026 wildcards will be the ProTeams that remain in the second division and those relegated from the WorldTour at the end of 2025. Possibly, Uno-X (if not promoted to the WorldTour) and Tudor will have a better chance of getting WorldTour wildcards in the next licensing cycle, as Israel and Lotto have been too tough rivals in recent seasons.

On another note, Corratec Vini Fantini remains outside the top 40 of the team ranking, which would prevent them from applying for a wildcard for next season's Giro d'Italia. In any case, the Italian team has little chance of getting a Giro wildcard even if it is eligible.

Primož Roglič delivered his best-ever pure climbing performance on Alto de Moncalvillo, winning his 15th stage in the Vuelta a España and becoming the new race leader.

It was a perfect hockey stick stage for Primož Roglič, finishing atop Alto de Moncalvillo (8.48 km, 8.96%). The Slovenian previously won here in the 2020 La Vuelta against Richard Carapaz, Hugh Carthy, Dan Martin, Aleksandr Vlasov, Enric Mas, and Wout Poels, pushing 6.50 ᵉW/Kg for 24:53 min. In 2024, however, Roglič and the top GC contenders are not pushing such low watts. It was a fairly easy day, as Quentin Pacher only spent 2,989 kilojoules over 3:43h at 12.60 kj/kg/h before Moncalvillo.

The Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe mountain train set a blistering pace for Roglič, stretching the peloton into a single file. With 6 km to go, Dani Martínez, Aleksandr Vlasov, and Roglič managed to create separation from the GC group, while Florian Lipowitz lost Roglič’ wheel and the riders behind failed to close the gap. The Red Bull trio gained significant time, with the GC group paced by Ben O’Connor’s teammate, Valentin Paret-Peintre.

Panicked attacks from David Gaudu, Richard Carapaz, and later Enric Mas ultimately played into Roglič’s hands. He set his own pace and, with 4.9 km to go, was riding solo, while his rivals struggled. Roglič claimed his 15th La Vuelta stage victory, becoming the new race leader after beating Ben O’Connor by 1:49 min on the climb. Gaudu and Mattias Skjelmose eventually caught up with Mas, surpassing him in the final meters. If he can produce a strong time trial performance on Stage 21, Skjelmose might not be far from securing a podium spot at La Vuelta. Stage 20, which features significant climbing, should favour Mas, but Roglič will need to lose a lot of time to lose the race lead.

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In perfect conditions, Roglič delivered a monster climbing performance, pushing 6.97 ᵉW/Kg for 23:55 min, smashing his 2020 time by 58 seconds. This was his best ever performance when adjusted for altitude. Enric Mas was the second-strongest rider, pushing 6.68 ᵉW/Kg for 24:45 min, while David Gaudu improved by 2:39 min compared to his 2020 effort, pushing 6.65 ᵉW/Kg.

While this was Roglič’s best pure climbing effort, it likely would not be enough to defeat Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France, as Evenepoel’s performance on Plateau de Beille nearly matched Roglič’ after one of the toughest climbing stages ever. Almost every top effort adjusted for altitude in the 21st century now comes from 2024, marking a significant leap in cycling performance. Aside from Roglič, the only non-2024 efforts that compare are from Alberto Contador (2009 Verbier), Ivan Basso (2006 Monte Bondone), and Santiago Pérez (2004 Navacerrada). Despite Roglič’ improvement, he remains unlikely to beat Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour. To compete against top GC riders, he needs to become significantly stronger in the harder stages and improve his ability to stay upright in the chaotic nature of the Tour.

In an exciting race, Jørgen Nordhagen attacked on Passo del Pura but was eventually caught on the final climb by Giulio Pellizzari and Aaron Dockx in Stage 2 of Giro della Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia. Dockx wonhe sprint finish whilst Tour de l’Avenir winner Pablo Torres finished 33 seconds behind.

The UCI 2.2 category race brought together a strong field, featuring Tour de l’Avenir winner Pablo Torres, Jørgen Nordhagen (who missed the Avenir due to budget constraints of the Norwegian federation), and Giulio Pellizzari, who recently signed a contract with Red Bull – Bora Hangrohe until 2027, among other exciting climbing talents.

Before the decisive climb up Passo del Pura (10.3 km, 8.15%), the race in the peloton was relatively calm. Pellizzari expended 2,461 kilojoules over 2:43 hours, averaging 14.01 kj/kg/h. Despite the rain, the temperature on the climb was a moderate 21°C.

The UAE Emirates Gen Z team set a strong pace, leading out their climber Pablo Torres at the start of the climb. Despite the presence of multiple riders from the Visma Lease a Bike development team in his wheel, Torres pulled hard, significantly reducing the lead group. Pellizzari initially dropped early on the climb, but wisely paced himself to remain in contention. With about half of the climb remaining, Nordhagen launched a fierce attack that no one could respond to, causing Torres to slow down. Eventually, Pellizzari rejoined the group and continued his push towards the summit.

Nordhagen delivered an impressive climbing performance, pushing 6.20 ᵉW/Kg for 29:30 minutes. Pellizzari lost 25 seconds, averaging 6.09 ᵉW/Kg. Nordhagen’s performance surpassed his previous effort at Tour Alsace on La Planche des Belles Filles, where he pushed 6.41 ᵉW/Kg for 17:05 minutes. While the exact climbing times of Pablo Torres and Aaron Dockx are unknown due to no television images, estimates suggest they might have performed around 5.95 – 6.00 ᵉW/Kg, with Dockx likely being faster due to drafting more than Torres.

Nordhagen remained the race leader after a tricky descent and seemed poised to win, but Pellizzari caught the Norwegian near the final stretch, and just before the finish, Dockx joined the leading group. The 20-year-old Belgian convincingly won the sprint against Nordhagen and Pellizzari. Torres, the youngest rider in the Top 10, finished 33 seconds behind Dockx, not matching his Tour de l’Avenir form at Karellis or Finestre. Richard Riška, born on December 27, 2005, finished 13th on this challenging stage and would still be in the junior category if born a few days later. This performance by the ATT Investment rider might attract interest from World Tour development teams.

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Pablo Castrillo claimed his second mountain stage win in a week on the steep Cuitu Negru climb, while Primož Roglič and Enric Mas battled to a close finish in the GC group on La Vuelta Stage 15.

Stage 15 finished with the long and irregular Cuitu Negru climb (18.9 km, 7.1%), where the final 3.1 kilometers averaged a grueling 12% gradient. With Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe not fully controlling the breakaway and their rider Aleksandr Vlasov joining a strong group, the breakaway had a good chance of surviving.

Thanks to Jay Vine’s efforts in the early part of the final climb, riding fully for his UAE Emirates teammate Pavel Sivakov, their chances of winning increased significantly. After Vine was done, Sivakov continued to push, hoping to climb up the GC standings, as he was 13th and moved to 10th position after the stage. However, with Aleksandr Vlasov and Pablo Castrillo on his wheel, such a move gave him virtually no chance of winning. Since the steep section did not benefit drafting much, Vlasov did not need to wait for Roglič as a satellite rider.

Fan-favorite climber Castrillo started the steep Cuitu Negru final section with a huge acceleration. Although Vlasov later closed the gap, the Equipo Kern Pharma talent ultimately won his second La Vuelta mountain stage in a week. Vlasov and Sivakov finished ahead of the peloton. The 23-year-old Castrillo, currently without a contract, has significantly increased his market value with these performances, especially if he has not yet signed with a strong WorldTour team.

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Before the climb, Roglič changed his bike with a bigger cassette but later received a 20-second penalty for drafting behind his team car to return to the peloton. Before Cuitu Negru, Brandon McNulty had already expended 3,381 kilojoules over 3:02 min at 15.82 kj/kg/h, making the stage quite intense.

T-Rex Quick Step were pulling on the climb for Mikel Landa. Mattia Cattaneo, who has been in outstanding form over the last week, again displayed immense power. Landa accelerated with 7 km to go, but did not maintain it for long as a flatter section followed in the subsequent kilometres. When the steep part resumed, Roglič attacked and went solo but may have gone too hard, as Mas caught the Slovenian and challenged him, with both finishing together.

For the full climb, Roglič and Mas averaged 6.03 ᵉW/Kg for 44:58 min. Ben O’Connor achieved his highest aSLP score (adjusted sea level power) of 604 and lost 38 seconds to Mas despite following stronger riders and not riding at his own pace. In the last 3.1 km, Mas and Roglič averaged an impressive 6.52 ᵉW/Kg for 12:08 min at altitude. Normalized for sea level, this would be 6.95 ᵉW/Kg. Mattias Skjelmose, benefiting from colder conditions, continued to improve and finished 3rd, losing only 5 seconds to the leaders.

Marion Bunel showcased her climbing prowess at the Tour de l’Avenir Femmes, dominating the gruelling Colle delle Finestre stage. At just 19, she stands out as one of the top U23 climbers and might make a significant impact in the WorldTour races next season.

Before Pablo Torres shattered the Colle delle Finestre record in the men’s race, it was the women who first conquered the infamous climb. While it typically takes the fastest men 60-70 minutes to ascend, for the women, it was an 80+ minute all-out effort—likely a new experience for almost every rider. Such a prolonged sub-threshold effort is rarely encountered, even in the longest time trials or training intervals. Austrian rider Elisa Winter spent 1,397 kilojoules over 2 hours and 47 minutes at a rate of 8.78 kj/kg/h before reaching the climb. The tempo was easy, knowing that the longest climb in women’s cycling awaited them.

Marion Bunel proved to be the best climber in this race. She had prior experience on long climbs, having won at Chamrousse in the Alpes Gresivaudan Classic against Julie Bego, Evita Muzic, and Valentina Cavallar, where she sustained 4.62 ᵉW/kg for 54 minutes and 15 seconds. Bego assisted her teammate Bunel with pacing during the climb. With 12 km remaining, Bunel launched an attack, followed by Isabella Holmgren, Paula Blasi, Eneritz Vadillo, and Eline Jansen for 5 kilometers. However, on a steeper gravel section around 7 km to go, Bunel dropped everyone and soloed to victory.

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This was an unusually long climb, requiring us to extend the trend lines to 90 minutes. Bunel averaged 4.43 ᵉW/kg over 80 minutes and 48 seconds on Finestre. Despite pushing only 0.11 ᵉW/kg less, Isabella Holmgren lost almost two minutes, highlighting how every watt matters on such a long climb. Pacing was crucial, as Jansen cracked in the final kilometers, losing 4 minutes and 47 seconds to Bunel, despite being with her 7 km from the finish. Jansen averaged 4.16 ᵉW/kg. Bunel performed exceptionally well earlier in the Tour de l’Avenir on Les Karellis, sustaining 4.97 ᵉW/kg for 38:45 min. At just 19 years old, she is already one of the best U23 climbers in the peloton. With a move to a WorldTour team likely next year, she has the potential to make significant improvements and possibly challenge for the win in the Tour de France in the coming years.